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1st call for Snow 1/15-17/2022


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This will be my first call for snow accumulations. I know the ranges are wider than I normally use but there is still some uncertainty on the track the system will take. The GFS has the track a little further south than yesterday.  If it follows the GFS those along the Ohio River won't receive much snow. The NAM has

 

the track with most of Kentucky getting some good accumulations.

First is the GFS.

The period covered is from 10 pm EST/9 central Friday to 4 am EST/ 3 central.

 

floop-gfs-2022011318.prateptype_cat.conus.thumb.gif.b3014b9f468e2eef440427b2a1c28d25.gif

 

The NAM covers almost the same period but is short by 3 hours because it is the very end of the 18z run.

 

floop-nam-2022011318.ref1km_ptype.conus.thumb.gif.3e3c9d216c2009ac4147d476420fad55.gif

 

This is what each model is showing for possible snow accumulations.

GFS

1598107742_snku_acc.us_state_ky_tn(1).thumb.png.809a84f794ec61c73fe8229335958661.png

 

NAM

 

snku_acc.us_state_ky_tn.thumb.png.409a50f031b72355273c406039efc5da.png

 

Now, this is my first call for snow accumulations. It will narrow down starting tomorrow. I will post my second call probably tomorrow morning. As I said earlier the range is wider than normal. I'm trying to take into account there is still some uncertainty on the exact track.

1_14.thumb.jpg.1fca2498a9104e1b632bbf038a7f5330.jpg

 

 

 

 

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27 minutes ago, CincySportsFan said:

Good grief, looking at the NAM model (and living in NKY), that system's got more movement than a Fernando Valenzuala screwball.

It was worst yesterday morning. It had Kentucky getting almost no snow at all. The succeeding runs brought the snow back into the picture. Wouldn't be surprised to see that happen again.

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2nd call

 

This is going to be a difficult one. The models have been jumping back and forth on the track of the system. The GFS has the show continuing on Monday. The real tricky part is how much warm air aloft will move in. The NAM is showing more of a freezing rain event. The more freezing rain will that falls will cut down on the snow accumulations. That along with the heavy wet snow that will fall could cause some power outages.

 

This is what the GFS is showing for possible snow accumulations.

snku_acc.us_state_ky_tn.thumb.png.1cfb1e6acbd17b5dba7668ae32ea3436.png

 

Freezing rain

724166947_zr_acc.us_state_ky_tn(1).thumb.png.20e8657f355551ad77fb28774978251b.png

 

NAM

743208765_snku_acc.us_state_ky_tn(1).thumb.png.1e64b97bfda2775bcc24fbdb817d4e46.png

 

Freezing rain

 

zr_acc.us_state_ky_tn.thumb.png.39d9bc75ffbffe7986a7c04cd5cec53e.png

 

Here's what I think will happen at this time. There will be a sharp cut-off on where the snow will fall. Tomorrow we should get a pretty good look at what will fall this weekend.

1.thumb.jpg.ee51b5b7d8e2dcc5eb228b27a814ce90.jpg

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7 hours ago, PP1 said:

Boone and Kenton are now in an advisory. Did the storm push slightly more west than you anticipated? 

Yes, it did. I was torn about taking NKY out of the snow area.

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