South Oldham vs. Central Hardin Predictions/Updates

[ColonelMike]

Who:   5A South Oldham (6-3) vs 6A Central Hardin (7-2)

Where:   Mitchell Irvin Stadium, South Oldham HS, Crestwood, KY

When:   Friday, 10/29/31

Broadcast:   Pegasus Sports Network    Free, live high definition video coverage begins at 7 pm ET on www.pegasussportsky.com

This game may tell us a lot about both teams.

South Oldham had a rough start to the season, as the SO coaching staff made some tweaks to the offense, and new personnel took over new roles against a very difficult early season schedule that included 3A #1 Christian Academy of Louisville, 6A #7 Ballard, and 6A Oldham County (unranked, but previously #10 and currently 7-2).   But the Dragons have been unbeatable as they rampaged, undefeated, throughout their district to claim the #1 seed, and South will be heavily favored to win the post-season district title and to advance to the region championship round of the playoffs.  

Senior Devlin McGee has settled in at QB, and has thrown for over 1,000 yards and 12 TDs, with just 3 picks.   South is again dangerous on the ground, averaging over 200 yards rushing / game, and - as is typical on Jamie Reed-coached teams - it is difficult to know who to key on.   Kyle Smith is arguably the most explosive back in the backfield, and he leads the team in rushing with 636 yards (90.9 yards / game), despite playing in only 7 of 9 games.   He's averaging over 10 yards per carry.   Jack McCubbin (63 rushes - 416 yards - 5 TDs) and Jeffery Burton (56 - 308 - 3) are good complements; McCubbin is a rugged back who is extremely versatile, adept at both running and catching the ball, while Burton has some real "run-away" speed.

Through the air, South has two primary weapons, Connor Hayden (24-449-7 TDs) and Christian Danielson (45 - 426-4), both of whom have shown good hands and route-running capabilities, with perhaps more sheer speed than the Dragons have had outside in the past few years.

The defense has allowed just 48 points in the last 6 games, with three shutouts, led by senior Elijah Lalli, who leads the team in tackles (79), tackles for loss (23!!), and sacks (7).

South has won four consecutive games over the weaker part of their schedule, but the Dragons left no doubt on the field of their superiority, outscoring those four teams, 207-20, in district wins over Jeffersontown, Atherton, North Bullitt, and Seneca.   South's three losses were to CAL, Ballard, and Oldham County (by just one TD).    Central Hardin gives Reed and the Dragons an opportunity stretch that winning streak to five with what would be a solid win over a quality 6A squad heading into the 5A playofs.

Jamie Reed, in his 12th season as head coach at South, has never had a losing record in Crestwood - and he won't have one this year, either.  He earned his 100th victory at South earlier this season...

Central Hardin is having a solid year with a 7-2 record.   The Bruins have lost to a solid Henderson County club, but curiously fell, 15-14, to Barren County (3-6).   Tim Mattingly, in his 8th season as the head coach of the Elizabethtown school, has led the Bruins to 60 wins to date, with five winning seasons and two state semi-final appearances.   His first four seasons at the school included 12 win, 10 win, 8 win, and another 10 win season....

The Bruins have had great success on the ground this year, averaging 294 yards per game rushing.    Four different players have rushed for over 400 yards, including Mason Thompson (130 carries, 717 yards, 9 TDs), Zakery Spurrier (110-635-8), Terry Brooks (68-543-5), and Kaden Fergerson (53-402-3).  

Passing isn't a big part of the Bruin offense, but Spurrier averages about 75 yards through the air, while only throwing 10 times a game.   He's thrown for 675 yards, 5 TDs, and only 3 picks.

Central's defense is giving up just 182 yards per game overall, and six of nine opponents have scored 15 points or less.

Central has won two in a row, both close wins, as they beat Meade County 28-20 and North Hardin, 26-21.

The two teams have played 3 times since 1999, with South winning 2 of 3, including the last two.    In November of 2019 - the last meeting between the two teams - a 6A top 10 Central Hardin team went to Crestwood and was hammered by South, 43-7.

The sideline story to this game?    South is renovating the football field at this time - there is no press box, and the power is being handled by generators.    With a high chance of rain (according to the current weather outlooks), things could get "fun" for the Pegasus crew!

[Tigerpride94]

Both these teams have a 79 rating in my power ratings so I will be interested in seeing who comes out on top.

[ColonelMike]

I like South Oldham's chances because I think they have greater ability to do more things on offense....that said, if Central is able to control the clock with that ground game of theirs....

Bruins dealing with lots of injury issues....

Rain in the forecast, but both teams will try to keep it on the ground....

I'll take South at home....I think their offense is more versatile and I like their defense upfront.

[Hardin County Preps]

Central Hardin played their most complete game of the year last week against North Hardin. Central Hardin's Terry Brooks and Mason Thompson each had more than 100 yards rushing and QB Zachary Spurrier had 81 yards rushing and had some key runs to seal the deal against North Hardin late in the 4th Quarter. TE/DE Adam Hobbs has been dominant in the last 2 games, stopping North Hardin RB Boyd on a 4th and 1 with 2 minutes left in the game, and making key TE catches and defensive stops against Meade County in the 4th quarter. 

This game will come down to Central Hardin's ability to effectively run the ball. In high school football, games are won up front on both sides of the ball. Central Hardin seems to get stronger as the game goes on and has some size up front with the Hobbs twins # 63 and #41 going 6'4" 265, and 6'4" 275. Central Hardin uses 3 backs in Kaden Fergerson, Terry Brooks and Mason Thompson. The few times they do throw the ball, they can target 6'4" WR Carter Robinson. 

I don't know much about South Oldham this year but their wins are against 3-6 North Oldham, 1-8 Jeffersontown, 4-5 Atherton, 2-8 North Bullitt, and 2-7 Seneca?

I will take Central Hardin in a close one.

CH 24

South Oldham 21

[bruin66]

12 hours ago, ColonelMike said:

Who:   5A South Oldham (6-3) vs 6A Central Hardin (7-2)

Where:   Mitchell Irvin Stadium, South Oldham HS, Crestwood, KY

When:   Friday, 10/29/31

Broadcast:   Pegasus Sports Network    Free, live high definition video coverage begins at 7 pm ET on www.pegasussportsky.com

This game may tell us a lot about both teams.

South Oldham had a rough start to the season, as the SO coaching staff made some tweaks to the offense, and new personnel took over new roles against a very difficult early season schedule that included 3A #1 Christian Academy of Louisville, 6A #7 Ballard, and 6A Oldham County (unranked, but previously #10 and currently 7-2).   But the Dragons have been unbeatable as they rampaged, undefeated, throughout their district to claim the #1 seed, and South will be heavily favored to win the post-season district title and to advance to the region championship round of the playoffs.  

Senior Devlin McGee has settled in at QB, and has thrown for over 1,000 yards and 12 TDs, with just 3 picks.   South is again dangerous on the ground, averaging over 200 yards rushing / game, and - as is typical on Jamie Reed-coached teams - it is difficult to know who to key on.   Kyle Smith is arguably the most explosive back in the backfield, and he leads the team in rushing with 636 yards (90.9 yards / game), despite playing in only 7 of 9 games.   He's averaging over 10 yards per carry.   Jack McCubbin (63 rushes - 416 yards - 5 TDs) and Jeffery Burton (56 - 308 - 3) are good complements; McCubbin is a rugged back who is extremely versatile, adept at both running and catching the ball, while Burton has some real "run-away" speed.

Through the air, South has two primary weapons, Connor Hayden (24-449-7 TDs) and Christian Danielson (45 - 426-4), both of whom have shown good hands and route-running capabilities, with perhaps more sheer speed than the Dragons have had outside in the past few years.

The defense has allowed just 48 points in the last 6 games, with three shutouts, led by senior Elijah Lalli, who leads the team in tackles (79), tackles for loss (23!!), and sacks (7).

South has won four consecutive games over the weaker part of their schedule, but the Dragons left no doubt on the field of their superiority, outscoring those four teams, 207-20, in district wins over Jeffersontown, Atherton, North Bullitt, and Seneca.   South's three losses were to CAL, Ballard, and Oldham County (by just one TD).    Central Hardin gives Reed and the Dragons an opportunity stretch that winning streak to five with what would be a solid win over a quality 6A squad heading into the 5A playofs.

Jamie Reed, in his 12th season as head coach at South, has never had a losing record in Crestwood - and he won't have one this year, either.  He earned his 100th victory at South earlier this season...

Central Hardin is having a solid year with a 7-2 record.   The Bruins have lost to a solid Henderson County club, but curiously fell, 15-14, to Barren County (3-6).   Tim Mattingly, in his 8th season as the head coach of the Elizabethtown school, has led the Bruins to 60 wins to date, with five winning seasons and two state semi-final appearances.   His first four seasons at the school included 12 win, 10 win, 8 win, and another 10 win season....

The Bruins have had great success on the ground this year, averaging 294 yards per game rushing.    Four different players have rushed for over 400 yards, including Mason Thompson (130 carries, 717 yards, 9 TDs), Zakery Spurrier (110-635-8), Terry Brooks (68-543-5), and Kaden Fergerson (53-402-3).  

Passing isn't a big part of the Bruin offense, but Spurrier averages about 75 yards through the air, while only throwing 10 times a game.   He's thrown for 675 yards, 5 TDs, and only 3 picks.

Central's defense is giving up just 182 yards per game overall, and six of nine opponents have scored 15 points or less.

Central has won two in a row, both close wins, as they beat Meade County 28-20 and North Hardin, 26-21.

The two teams have played 3 times since 1999, with South winning 2 of 3, including the last two.    In November of 2019 - the last meeting between the two teams - a 6A top 10 Central Hardin team went to Crestwood and was hammered by South, 43-7.

The sideline story to this game?    South is renovating the football field at this time - there is no press box, and the power is being handled by generators.    With a high chance of rain (according to the current weather outlooks), things could get "fun" for the Pegasus crew!

What tweaks did South Oldham make to their offense at mid-season?

[ColonelMike]

On 10/27/2021 at 1:26 PM, bruin66 said:

What tweaks did South Oldham make to their offense at mid-season?

The tweaks were really pre-season, but in mid-season, South did bring back more elements of their previous offensive look.    

[ColonelMike]

Still looking like rain.   SOHS has put up a tent for the Pegasus crew, but we'll have to see how it goes with protecting the electronics.....    

[Brown]

South seems to be building a nice program the last few years.  I’ll roll with South.

 

26-17

[Hardin County Preps]

Calpreps has this game final, South Oldham 22 Central Hardin 21.

[ColonelMike]

8 hours ago, Hardin County Preps said:

Calpreps has this game final, South Oldham 22 Central Hardin 21.

?????

Is that a prediction?  

Game kicks in about 40 minutes.... LOL

Pegasus has a crew huddling under a tent in the stands (no press box due to construction).

www.pegasussportsky.com

CM