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Winter not over yet?


nWo
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Winter may not be over for us as of yet. I'm watching the beginning of March for the potential of another snowstorm. The timing, for now, is from Sunday afternoon 2/28 through Tuesday morning 3/2. At the beginning of the period the GFS 500mb map is showing an upper-level trough over New Mexico moving through Texas heading towards Kentucky. A low-pressure system is forecast to form over Arkansas and progress eastward through Tennessee. The precipitation will start as rain Sunday evening in Kentucky and continue into the afternoon on Monday. Arctic air will move in behind the low changing the precipitation over to freezing rain and snow. Temperatures are forecast to drop almost 30°. The snow will continue until Tuesday morning. Wind gust could approach 30 mph as the arctic air moves in. The following maps will show this.

GFS 500 mb Anomaly map

floop-gfs-2021022106.500h_anom.conus.gif.d1e840f1b79f830711f08b5d8769b5ac.gif

 

You can see the rain switch over to freezing rain then snow.

 

floop-gfs-2021022106.prateptype_cat.conus.gif.29b8ba8e82de0452f7152801c6b54325.gif

 

The temperature and wind gust maps

floop-gfs-2021022106_sfct.conus.gif.f845a3dab824a65300f3423bb52bced8.gif

 

floop-gfs-2021022106.sfcgust_mph.conus.gif.39efac50a1285b3f7fe081094f734fe9.gif

Take note that there is not much agreement between the models as we are a week away. But I think the period needs to be watch. Check back for updates as we get closer to next weekend.  

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Monday evening update:

It appears that ridging will grow in strength and cut off the trough that was to pass through Kentucky and produce wintry precipitation.  From 4 am EST Sunday through 4 am EST Monday morning temperatures will range from the low to high 40s during this time period. This will keep the precipitation as all rain. The first map shows the ridging that will build and cutoff or block the trough. If this holds true, it will cause the mild temperatures.

floop-gfs-2021022212.500h_anom.conus.gif.64bca49b38f9bfa7d7ee4c4df7fd78c5.gif

 

Here are the precipitation and temperature maps.

floop-gfs-2021022212.prateptype_cat.conus.gif.5cc92006c84bf0970f1ac75a43a5d401.gif

floop-gfs-2021022212_sfct.conus.gif.6cf51a4080ec2f4d7b4848674caaaffa.gif

 

I'm also looking at what type of severe weather season we may have. So far what I've seen is that this will an active severe weather season. I will post more on that later. 

I'm watching the period I've been talking about and update when information warrants it. 

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On 2/22/2021 at 3:36 PM, nWo said:

I'm also looking at what type of severe weather season we may have. So far what I've seen is that this will an active severe weather season. I will post more on that later. 

I've read in several different places we could be looking at an active storm season. Bring it on!

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1 hour ago, theguru said:

Rain/snow/both?

Western Kentucky is looking at a moderate risk for severe storms while the rest of Kentucky is in what I would call a enhanced risk for severe storms. Tornadoes may be stronger this spring. An EF-5 maybe possible. Timing from late March to May.

 

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