The Storm Prediction Center has issued a category 3 Enhanced Risk Area for portions of Kentucky, southern Indiana west of the I-65 corridor. East of I-65 the rest of Kentucky is in a category 2 Slight Risk Area except for a small section of eastern Kentucky. The Enhanced Risk Area includes the cities of Evansville in Indiana. Paducah, Madisonville, Murray, Owensboro, Louisville, and Bowling Green in Kentucky. The Slight Risk Area includes Frankfort, Lexington, Richmond, London, Corbin, Williamsburg, Prestonburg.

 

Severe thunderstorms with tornadoes, large hail and wind damage are likely across parts of the Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are forecast to first develop across southcentral Missouri this morning and spread eastward into western Kentucky by early to mid-afternoon. The instability combined with strong deep-layer shear will be favorable for severe storms. Scattered thunderstorms should develop near a surface low in southcentral Missouri around midday with this convection moving eastward across southern Illinois and into western Kentucky early this afternoon. This activity should stay along and to the south of a warm front extending eastward from the surface low.

 

This is the forecast prediction of the warm front at around 2 pm EDT.

 

 

Cells that can move into the air south of the warm front will likely be surface-based and will have the greatest chance to become severe. Condition near Paducah this afternoon will be favorable for supercells and tornadoes. Supercells that move along and parallel to the warm front should have the greatest potential for tornadoes. A threat for large hail and wind damage will also be associated with supercells. A wind damage threat will also be possible with bowing line segments.

 

I am issuing a BGP Severe Weather Alert day along with a level 2 Tornado Threat Index for portions of Kentucky west of I-65. East of I-65 will be in a level 1 Tornado Threat Index. I will be updating whenever possible today. If so inclined everyone can follow the BGP Twitter Page for update throughout the day.

I just checked the very latest NAM SAR soundings. It is calling for significant supercell development with hail 1" in diameter and strong tornadoes for portions of western Kentucky. If the possible tornadoes form some could reach around EF-3 to EF-4 in strength. Of course, it can't say exactly where these possible storms will form or if they will indeed form just that there is a possibility of them forming. Everyone should be going over their emergency action plan today so they can be ready if these storms do produce the conditions forecasted.

 

[ATTACH]69956[/ATTACH]

 

[ATTACH]69957[/ATTACH]

 

BGP Tornado Threat Index

 

I earlier posted the wrong BGP Tornado Threat index chart.

 

You're the man, @nWo. Keep up the great work. We see you.

You're the man, @nWo. Keep up the great work. We see you.

 

Thank you for the compliments. :thumb:

Bring on the twisters. At least that will take my mind off the coronavirus for a while.

The Storm Prediction Center is pretty much confirming what I posted this morning about the possible severe weather event later today.

 

Multiple episodes of severe thunderstorms are possible today, most

concentrated in and near the "enhanced risk" area, from mid/late

morning through afternoon. Supercells and organized multicells are

expected, with the potential for a few supercells to mature/persist

long enough for a tornado threat. Significant/EF2+ rated tornadoes

may occur. Large hail is possible, especially from supercells, and

with modes potentially becoming clustered or messy with time, the

wind-damage potential will extend farther eastward.

 

Those in and around the Paducah area should really be going over your emergency action plan as soon as possible. I just checked the 12z NAM run and I'm not liking what I'm seeing. If it develops as the NAM is showing strong long track tornadoes EF-3+ and significant hail will be possible. The size of the hail it is showing is 2-3" size.

 

I'm watching this situation very closely and will post an update around 1:30 pm EDT.

The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Enhanced Risk are eastward to include portions of Kentucky close to the I-75 corridor. Portions of Kentucky not covered by the Enhance Risk Area are now under a Slight Risk Area.

 

I will be back as quick as possible to update everyone. I'm in the process of preparing our tornado shelters here at work. This appears to be an increase severe weather threat.

 

Those who live in western Kentucky do not let your guard down. There should be another round of severe storms later this evening.

Just read info from the NWS-Paducah office. Round two of the storms are forming in Missouri and will be moving towards the east.