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29th District Finals - Oldham County / South Oldham predictions


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Oldham County meets South Oldham in the 29th district finals Friday night 2/22/19 at around 7:30 (probably later, by the time the girls' final winner cuts down the nets and they are replaced) pm.


Oldham won the regular season meeting, 83-80. The Colonels have won three in a row in the series, and lead the series, 27-14, since the 1997-8 season.


These two teams have met in the District 29 finals the last three seasons, with Oldham winning all three.


The two teams have met in the region 8 finals in 3 of the last 7 seasons, with Oldham winning 2, including last year's victory over South in the region 8 championship, 71-56.


Oldham has won the 29th District 8 consecutive seasons, the second-longest streak in the state, behind Madisonville North-Hopkins, which has won nine consecutive district 7 titles.


(Note: Madisonville North-Hopkins took on Caldwell County tonight at Hopkins County Central for the 7th district title, but the score was unavailable as I wrote this).


South Oldham has watched Oldham County dominate the district for the last 8 years, but it certainly hasn't hurt the Dragons. Steve Simpson has guided South to 3 Sweet Sixteen appearances in the past seven seasons - each time as a district runner-up. They also lost in the region finals last year....


South comes into the game as the highest-scoring team in the state of KY, averaging just over 80 ppg. But the Dragons' scoring defense is among the worst in Region 8, surrendering 68.8 ppg (15th in the region among 17 teams). South's last two opponents scored 96 and 76 points - but the Dragons still won, defeating Henry County, 104-96 in New Castle, and knocking off Trimble County in the opening round of the district, 100-76. The Dragons feature a deep bench full of shooters and will once again finish as one of the top 3 point shooting teams in the state. Junior forward Luke Morrison - voted 8th Region Player of the Year - averages a region-best 25+ ppg (5th in the state). South is searching for its first district title since 2009-10, when they finished 27-6 and ultimately lost in the region finals.


Oldham County, on the other hand, has sometimes been erratic on offense. The Colonels - who shot over 50% from the floor during last year's Sweet 16 Final Four run, ranking among the tops in the state - are shooting a much more pedestrian 43.0% from the floor this season. Oldham is averaging 61.7 ppg, 10th in region 8. But defensively, the Colonels have fared much better than South, surrendering 60.3 ppg (7th in the region) against a back-breaking schedule featuring the likes of Covington Catholic, Campbell County, Simon Kenton, Walton-Verona, South Oldham, Scott County, Highlands, Taylor County, Gallatin County, George Rogers Clark, Central Hardin, Beechwood, Butler, Waggener, and Collins. That's five teams ranked in the current Bluegrasspreps Top 20, and at least three others that were ranked at the time the game was played.


Common Opponents (from the "For What It's Worth" department):


Shelby County South won 78-49 Oldham Co won 63-38

Grant County South won 80-75 Oldham Co lost, 66-63 (last second 3 pointer)

Simon Kenton South lost 86-81 Oldham Co won 72-71

Trimble County South won 93-61 Oldham Co won 75-41 (just regular season)

North Oldham South won 76-56 Oldham Co won 60-45

Spencer County South lost 83-79 Oldham Co won 66-59

Collins South won 68-62 Oldham Co lost 64-57

North Bullitt South lost 85-82 2OT Oldham Co won 75-51

Gallatin County South lost 79-75 Oldham Co won 69-68

Central Hardin South lost 74-72 Oldham Co won, 69-61

Walton-Verona South lost 81-72 Oldham Co lost, 49-43


Keys: South - prevent Oldham from getting to the rim and

prevent Oldham from second chance points. Christian Harper is especially strong in this regard. Take care of the ball against Oldham's pressure. Finally, pressure Oldham's shooters. The Colonels hit 50% overall and 50% beyond the arc in the first meeting. (also 15 of 19 at the line)


Oldham - Be constantly aware of where the open spaces are against South's multi- and constantly changing defenses. Sharp passing; South has long arms and frequently turns lazy passes into transition baskets. South will clog the passing lanes; Oldham has to take their time and get good entry passes to the high and low posts. Finally, stay out of foul trouble. The Colonels need to keep certain key players on the court, but more importantly, they can't afford to allow this to become a free throw shooting contest. Though Oldham is a really good free throw shooting team; South is extraordinary and one of the state's top-shooting free throw teams at nearly 78%.


I'm going to have fun broadcasting this one. Should be a great matchup.



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Since posting the above, the Madisonville North-Hopkins score has been posted; Madisonville N-H defeated Caldwell County, extending their streak to 10 consecutive district titles, the longest in the state.


Oldham can remain in the #2 position with nine straight titles if they can beat South.

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