THS2011 Posted August 28, 2017 Posted August 28, 2017 BGP Poll: 1. Trinity 2. Saint Xavier 3. Male 4. Scott County 5. Pleasure Ridge Park 6. Simon Kenton 7. Lafayette 8. Manual 9. Butler 10. Conner Calpreps Poll: 1. Trinity 2. Scott County 3. Saint Xavier 4. Pleasure Ridge Park 5. Male 6. Lafayette 7. Simon Kenton 8. Ryle 9. Manual 10. Ballard What does everyone think about Human polls vs Computer polls? Is one superior to the other? Human polls add the value of the eye test but also add bias. Computer polls add the value of results to the 10th power but also lack different discussions (one sole algorithm).
Voice of Reason Posted August 28, 2017 Posted August 28, 2017 The really difficult thing with computer polls early in the year for high school football is the starting point. It is a bit of a crapshoot trying to figure out high school teams early because of graduations, new starters and new talent (or lack of it) coming up. Knowledgable humans do much better than computers early. As the season goes on and more data is available, computers get much better. I will always take the knowledgeable human poll over the computer. But there are bad human polls and there are poor computer polls so you have to know which ones to pay attention to. I think calpreps.com is the best computer poll out there for high school but early in the season there will be mistakes.
Tigerpride94 Posted August 28, 2017 Posted August 28, 2017 I think human polls do good job of ranking top 5. Computers are better when trying to rank all teams in a class or a state. Obviously computers get better as the season goes on.
THS2011 Posted August 28, 2017 Author Posted August 28, 2017 Has anyone used the Project a Match up before on Calpreps? It's actually fairly accurate.
Nathaniel Bryan Posted August 28, 2017 Posted August 28, 2017 Eh, the humans had South Warren ranked higher in 5-A today than they had South Warren ranked in 4-A in the AP poll, so still plenty of room for human error.
theguru Posted August 28, 2017 Posted August 28, 2017 Eh, the humans had South Warren ranked higher in 5-A today than they had South Warren ranked in 4-A in the AP poll, so still plenty of room for human error. You are talking about the AP Poll, not the BGP Poll. The AP has teams in the wrong class every year. Plus, it is a pure vote meaning the human bias can have a strong impact. So I guess what I am saying is not all human polls are the same and you picked the worst one to make your point.
theguru Posted August 28, 2017 Posted August 28, 2017 To echo the others, Computer Polls start with a Magic Number that diminishes in importance as the computer has more actual data, Give me the humans (not the AP humans) over the Computer any day of the week.
Nathaniel Bryan Posted August 28, 2017 Posted August 28, 2017 I think the BGP rankings are pretty solid for most classes (we will see if Elizabethtown makes the final out of 3A west, though, as Boyle has been impressive). CalPreps, like Maher in soccer, gets better as the season goes on. Late in the year, computer rankings are pretty on point. Granted today's AP blunder was bad, but as Josh Moore pointed out, the COACHES themselves had Moore and South Warren in the wrong classes when they submitted their lists. What's the coaches' excuse for that snafu?
Nathaniel Bryan Posted August 28, 2017 Posted August 28, 2017 To echo the others, Computer Polls start with a Magic Number that diminishes in importance as the computer has more actual data, Give me the humans (not the AP humans) over the Computer any day of the week. That magic number can be screwy. John Hardin's magic number as good and they haven't delivered at all. The Douglass Broncos' magic number was the worst in 6A, IIRC, and there is no way they will end up that way.
theguru Posted August 28, 2017 Posted August 28, 2017 That magic number can be screwy. John Hardin's magic number as good and they haven't delivered at all. The Douglass Broncos' magic number was the worst in 6A, IIRC, and there is no way they will end up that way. An early season computer ranking is only as good as the human creating the algorithm (with the human magic number included) to analyze the limited results.
theguru Posted August 28, 2017 Posted August 28, 2017 I think the BGP rankings are pretty solid for most classes (we will see if Elizabethtown makes the final out of 3A west, though, as Boyle has been impressive). CalPreps, like Maher in soccer, gets better as the season goes on. Late in the year, computer rankings are pretty on point. Granted today's AP blunder was bad, but as Josh Moore pointed out, the COACHES themselves had Moore and South Warren in the wrong classes when they submitted their lists. What's the coaches' excuse for that snafu? That is where you guys go wrong too, you shouldn't be pimping the coaches to do something that isn't their job. You are burdening many of them and they are just checking boxes and not giving their best effort and as a result those things happen. And they happen all the time. With all that said, none of us are perfect.
Nathaniel Bryan Posted August 28, 2017 Posted August 28, 2017 That is where you guys go wrong too, you shouldn't be pimping the coaches to do something that isn't their job. You are burdening many of them and they are just checking boxes and not giving their best effort and as a result those things happen. And they happen all the time. With all that said, none of us are perfect. The preseason vote, as far as I know, was not checking boxes. It is fill in the blank for teams in your own class. Some voting coaches didn't know that Moore or South Warren had either left or arrived. AP still had them listed as a drop-down option. That is far worse, but some human coaches were out of the loop.
theguru Posted August 28, 2017 Posted August 28, 2017 The preseason vote, as far as I know, was not checking boxes. It is fill in the blank for teams in your own class. Some voting coaches didn't know that Moore or South Warren had either left or arrived. AP still had them listed as a drop-down option. That is far worse, but some human coaches were out of the loop. Checking boxes as a figure of speech. It is a burden to most of them.
Nathaniel Bryan Posted August 28, 2017 Posted August 28, 2017 Checking boxes as a figure of speech. It is a burden to most of them. Not disagreeing with the burden part. Done enough of all-area votes to learn that.
thsrocks Posted August 29, 2017 Posted August 29, 2017 BGP Poll: 1. Trinity 2. Saint Xavier 3. Male 4. Scott County 5. Pleasure Ridge Park 6. Simon Kenton 7. Lafayette 8. Manual 9. Butler 10. Conner Calpreps Poll: 1. Trinity 2. Scott County 3. Saint Xavier 4. Pleasure Ridge Park 5. Male 6. Lafayette 7. Simon Kenton 8. Ryle 9. Manual 10. Ballard What does everyone think about Human polls vs Computer polls? Is one superior to the other? Human polls add the value of the eye test but also add bias. Computer polls add the value of results to the 10th power but also lack different discussions (one sole algorithm). Ryle and Ballard should both be better and have not performed up to expectations. The computer says thy are better than what the human eye has witnessed.
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