Which Kentucky high school football analysis system generally proves the most accurate? I am aware of the Litkenhaus ratings, the Cantrel ratings, the AP poll, the Courier-Journal preseason poll and the BluegrassPreps ratings. There may be more rankings out there. Has anyone ever performed any systematic analysis on these ratings systems to determine which best predicts outcomes of games? Also, where can one access weekly updates on these various systems, and is it possible to access historical databases for these systems? For example, does anyone know if there exists a listing of early 1990's Cantrel ratings or 1970s Litkenhaus ratings? Finally, if anyone has conducted a systemic study of the validity of any of these ranking systems would you be willing to publish the study or share it with us?

I prefer the Cantrall Ratings, which seem to put more emphasis on strength of schedule. I've always felt that the Litkenhous Ratings reward some teams for pounding on lower-level opponents. Some people prefer the Massey Ratings, which are available online.

 

Over the last three years, I've done some research for Guru on how the various systems have done in terms of predicting the playoffs. The BGP poll and Cantrall and Massey systems have been more accurate than the AP poll and Litratings. Last season, the BGP poll was the leader.

 

The best way to find old rankings would be to check microfilm copies of the Courier-Journal and Herald-Leader.

You based your conclusions on end of the year results vs the last published rankings of the year for each system, right westsider?

You based your conclusions on end of the year results vs the last published rankings of the year for each system, right westsider?

I use the last rankings/polls published at the end of the regular season.

 

I think all polls and ratings get more accurate in the latter stages of the season, as they each have more evidence on which to base the ratings.

I use the last rankings/polls published at the end of the regular season.

 

I think all polls and ratings get more accurate in the latter stages of the season, as they each have more evidence on which to base the ratings.

 

Looking at the later rankings will always be accurate. While you might not necessarily agree with the Litkenhous or Cantrall ratings, I do like one aspect of them: they wait three weeks into the season before they are released. Not to dip into a college subject here, but the college polls would be much better if they saw teams play a few games before getting their rankings.

The Danville Advocate-Messenger has a Ratings System as well (or at least used to), but I don't think they are published on-line.

My personal favorite football analysis system is the playoffs. The top teams usually rise to the top.

 

lol