No class in the state may be more up for grabs than 1A. There are 5, perhaps even 6, teams that have a very legitimate argument that they can win this title. Here is how we see the playoff battle unfolding in 1A.

 

Region 1

 

Russellville seized the opportunity presented last year with the move of Mayfield to 2A and took the Region 1 championship. Many of the key players from that team returned this year determined to take the next step and move on to a state championship game. It has been an impressive season for the Panthers. They marched through their schedule undefeated and virtually unchallenged until last week when they faced by far their toughest opponent, 4A #2 Franklin-Simpson. That game became their first loss of the year by a score of 34-7, although Russellville was able to hang tough for the first half. No worries for any negative impact in the regional games for Russellville from that loss as there do not appear to be any teams in the region capable of posting an upset win over Russellville.

 

Russellville should make quick work of Caverna in round one and then will almost surely face Campbellsville in round 2. Campbellsville put a major scare into Russellville in last year's playoffs before losing by two points. Campbellsville is 3-7 entering this year's playoffs and nothing we have seen should concern Russellville.

 

On the other side of the Region 1 bracket, it is less clear. Despite a 4-6 record, Crittenden County should have no problem defeating Fort Knox. That will take them to round 2 against Bethlehem who gets a bye in round 1. Bethlehem has posted a solid season at 6-4 but this is an upset possibility. This game will feature a couple of nice QB's in Bethlehem's Matthew Hagan and Crittenden County's Hunter Boone. Home field advantage should enable Bethlehem to get the win and move on to a rematch of last year's regional final versus Russellville.

 

In the final, Russellville's multiple back rushing attack will be too much for Bethlehem. Last year Russellville won by 21 and the difference looks even wider this year.

 

Region 1 Championship: Russellville 42 Bethlehem 14

 

 

Region 2

 

Region 2 features some more interesting matchups than Region 1. The Beechwood Tigers have owned this region, winning it every year of the 6 class era except 1. The Tigers entered this season with few returning starters and having to rebuild their entire offensive line, a new QB and RB's. Coach Rash has done masterful work bringing along this young and inexperienced team and led them to an impressive 9-1 record featuring wins over 4 teams that have been ranked in the top 10 in 2A this season. The cap on the regular season was a 42-14 win over rival, 2A #5 Newport Catholic in the season final. The Tigers are the clear favorite again to win this region.

 

The Tigers will have no issues versus first round opponent Eminence and move on to face the winner of Holy Cross (Louisville) and Ludlow. Holy Cross has played a tough schedule and stands ranked #8 in 1A, but a loss to a 2 win Fairdale team in their season final is not a good way to enter the playoffs. Expect Holy Cross to defeat Ludlow at home by 3 TD's. Last year Beechwood faced Holy Cross in the regional final and the Tigers had to work very hard for a 21-9 win. This year's game will be at Beechwood and the turf field will favor the speedy Tigers. Holy Cross RB Mario Convenuto is a big play threat but the Tigers should win this game more handily than last year's contest.

 

The favorite on the other side of the bracket is Kentucky Country Day. With an 8-2 record and ranked #7 in 1A, Ky. Country Day led by WR Jared Frank, #3 in 1A in scoring, should work their way to the regional final against Beechwood. The Bearcats face Dayton in round 1 and then the winner of Bellevue and Frankfort in round 2. The Bellevue vs. Frankfort game is an interesting round 1 matchup. These two proud programs have both struggled to 3-7 records this year. Frankfort looks to be the stronger of the two and the Panthers should move on to a rematch against Ky. Country Day. Frankfort gave Ky. Country Day trouble in their first game in district play so this will not be an easy one for the Bearcats. If they can avoid turnovers, Ky. Country Day should win by two TD's and move on to a trip to Ft. Mitchell against Beechwood.

 

If Beechwood hosts Ky. Country Day in the regional final as we expect, look for an air battle. Both teams have balanced offensive attacks led by their strong passing games. Unfortunately for Ky. Country Day, Beechwood also has one of the best pass defenses in 1A and that defense will be too tough for Ky. Country Day to overcome.

 

Region 2 Championship: Beechwood 49 Kentucky Country Day 14

 

 

Region 3

 

The east side of the 1A bracket is loaded with strong teams, including 4 of the top 6 in 1A and the #1 undefeated Paintsville Tigers. That strength is on full display in region 3. There are 7 teams in this region and all 7 are in the top 15 teams in 1A. Because of that, 3 teams ranked in the top 15 in 1A are going to lose in round 1. The favorite in region 3 has to be Paintsville. They earned their way to #1 with some impressive wins during the regular season. Their OT win over Raceland two weeks ago was a classic battle between two of the top teams in 1A.

 

Looking at the top of the region 3 bracket, that Raceland Rams team is the favorite but they face as tough a playoff schedule as we can recall in 1A. In round 1 the Rams host the Bishop Brossart Mustangs who stand 8-2 and share in a tie for their district title. This is where we will again see how sometimes schedules don't tell the whole story. Raceland has posted their 8-2 record against the strongest schedule in 1A. Brossart's strength of schedule is #28 in 1A. The Rams will get the win in this matchup and will likely win by 3 TD's or more. It is out of the frying pan and into the fire for Raceland as they will then take on 9-1 Nicholas County in round 2. Nicholas County has a bye in round 1 so they will be rested and ready for this big game. The story however should be the same as round 1 for the Rams as their battle tested team will prevail and move on to the region final.

 

Whew, if you think that side of the bracket was a meat grinder, hold on as we go through more tough games on the other side of the bracket. Bracken County will host Fairview in round one and this game has the possibility of upset written all over it. There are health and player availability questions for both teams but if both are at full strength, this is a game to attend if you want to see a close round 1 contest. Fairview is another team that has battled a very tough schedule and those battles should have them well prepared for this game. Assuming full strength for the Eagles, we are picking this as an upset win for them over the Polar Bears. The prize for that upset win will be a game against the #1 team in 1A, Paintsville. Paintsville faces a Paris team that has worked its way to a 5-5 record, which the Greyhounds earned with a very good win over Bethlehem in their season ending game. Paintsville is just too much for Paris and the Tigers will move on to a rematch against Fairview. In that earlier game Paintsville shut out Fairview 36-0. This rematch game result should be similar.

 

That brings us to a great regional final game - Paintsville vs. Raceland. Who knows what will happen this time? The district game went to OT so don't be surprised if it happens again. These two teams are that good and that closely matched. This game will be at Paintsville and that should give the Tigers an edge. However, we think the Rams are long overdue and this team can get it done.

 

Region 3 Championship: Raceland 28 Paintsville 27

 

 

Region 4

 

This region is where the defending state champions, the Pikeville Panthers, reside. The Panthers have a couple losses but they are favored to repeat their regional title. Those two losses were to the #1 team in 1A and the #1 team in 3A. Everyone in 1A better not forget about Pikeville. They have one of the top offenses in 1A led by one of the best QB's in this class in Wyatt Battaile. The roster has players who have won a state championship and know what it takes to make that happen.

 

The two biggest threats to Pikeville are in the top half of the bracket. Williamsburg has played a top notch schedule and worked their way into the top 10 in the class. They will have no trouble in round 1 versus South Floyd. Hazard has been in the top 10 in 1A all season and currently is ranked #6. Hazard has the leading rusher in 1A, RB Cory Smith, and a good QB, Bailey Blair. That balanced offense will be too much for Harlan in round 1. The round 2 battle between Williamsburg and Hazard will be a good one. These two teams look evenly matched. Williamsburg will have home field as the number one seed and that may give them the edge. It looks on paper though that Hazard has a little too much for Williamsburg. Look for the Bulldogs to move to the regional title game.

 

In the lower part of the bracket, Pikeville is the clear favorite. Pineville will easily get past Jenkins to move on to face Pikeville. Pikeville faces 6-4 Lynn Camp in round 1. The winning record of their opponent will be no problem for Pikeville and they will move to round 2 versus Pineville. Pineville poses no threat to the defending state champions and Pikeville will roll into another regional title game.

 

The regional championship game shapes up as a rematch between district rivals Hazard and Pikeville. Pikeville won the first game between these two by a score of 29-21. Hazard will need to play their best game of the year to get a win in this one - and that still may not be enough to dethrone the champions. We expect Pikeville to win this one in a hard fought game.

 

Region 4 Championship: Pikeville 35 Hazard 27

 

 

Semifinals: Beechwood 41 Russellville 21

 

Semifinals: Raceland 28 Pikeville 27

 

 

State Finals: Beechwood 34 Raceland 28

Edited November 1, 20169 yr by Voice of Reason

VOR, very impressive work-up. Enjoyed your forecast of the challenging gauntlet Beechwood will navigate to this 2016 Championship. Can't express enough my respect for the job Coach Rash has done with these munchkins. Artificial Turf through Bowling Green won't hurt their chances.

I can't say I disagree with much of it.

 

The only thing I feel differently on is Paintsville vs. Raceland.

 

Paintsville overcame a vast penalty discrepancy to win on the road. Playing at home I don't think that will be as much of a factor. I will err on the side of Paintsville right now as the East representative but I do like Beechwood for the Title.

I can't say I disagree with much of it.

 

The only thing I feel differently on is Paintsville vs. Raceland.

 

Paintsville overcame a vast penalty discrepancy to win on the road. Playing at home I don't think that will be as much of a factor. I will err on the side of Paintsville right now as the East representative but I do like Beechwood for the Title.

 

If those are the two teams then I like Paintsville because Beechwood is vulnerable to the run and Paintsville can also pass the ball as well. But it would be a dandy game.

Bac2369 is a smart man! I do think Paintsville is at least 2 TD's stronger that Raceland in the next Matchup! The only other difference I would have is Paintsville vs Beechwood and Paintsville's size mixed with speed will be too much for the Beechwood Tigers!

The Raceland Paintsville game was the toughest matchup to call without a doubt. Not to state the obvious since they went to OT the first time, but I can see it going either way. I have had this feeling since the first couple games of the season that this is the year Raceland gets over the hump so I went with the gut feeling and picked them.

 

As to Beechwood being vulnerable to the run, last week's game versus Newport Catholic put some worries there to rest. New Cath has a line with size (@250 lb avg), a good RB and an excellent running QB - and they rushed for 100 yards against Beechwood. Beechwood actually has done a nice job against the run this year with one exception - Holy Cross Covington. Take away that 350 rushing yards allowed and Beechwood would be in the top 2 or 3 rushing defenses in 1A. Beechwood is not going to be facing in the 1A playoffs a D1 RB who goes 245 pounds and runs a 4.5 40 like what Holy Cross has. Lloyd's Justin Durham is one of the top RB's in 2A - Beechwood held him to 42 yards on 16 carries. Somerset's Jordan Doon is a super quick RB who is also one of the best in 2A - Beechwood held him top less than 50 yards till he picked up some yards in the 4th quarter of a lopsided win for the Tigers. Doon is a lot like Phelps. Beechwood's run defense will be up to the challenge.

 

As I look at it, I think Raceland is a more difficult matchup for Beechwood than Paintsville. Their more balanced offense will be tougher for Beechwood to defend.

The Raceland Paintsville game was the toughest matchup to call without a doubt. Not to state the obvious since they went to OT the first time, but I can see it going either way. I have had this feeling since the first couple games of the season that this is the year Raceland gets over the hump so I went with the gut feeling and picked them.

 

As to Beechwood being vulnerable to the run, last week's game versus Newport Catholic put some worries there to rest. New Cath has a line with size (@250 lb avg), a good RB and an excellent running QB - and they rushed for 100 yards against Beechwood. Beechwood actually has done a nice job against the run this year with one exception - Holy Cross Covington. Take away that 350 rushing yards allowed and Beechwood would be in the top 2 or 3 rushing defenses in 1A. Beechwood is not going to be facing in the 1A playoffs a D1 RB who goes 245 pounds and runs a 4.5 40 like what Holy Cross has. Lloyd's Justin Durham is one of the top RB's in 2A - Beechwood held him to 42 yards on 16 carries. Somerset's Jordan Doon is a super quick RB who is also one of the best in 2A - Beechwood held him top less than 50 yards till he picked up some yards in the 4th quarter of a lopsided win for the Tigers. Doon is a lot like Phelps. Beechwood's run defense will be up to the challenge.

 

As I look at it, I think Raceland is a more difficult matchup for Beechwood than Paintsville. Their more balanced offense will be tougher for Beechwood to defend.

 

That game against NCC was a statement win. NCC didn't look like the same team as when I watched them against Holy Cross..

That game against NCC was a statement win. NCC didn't look like the same team as when I watched them against Holy Cross..

 

That's because New Cath was playing Beechwood, not Holy Cross.

 

Seriously though, sometimes when you face a tougher team you don't look as good.

Beechwood passing attack has been solid all year. I like to see the Davis kid get a few more touches though.

Great Article VOR. I think a lot of people are excited about the Class 1A playoffs.

The semifinals on Thanksgiving set up to be two high quality games, whether Paintsville or Raceland represent Region III. I'm leaning toward Beechwood as the overall favorite, but I still think there is a reasonable chance that up to five teams could win it all.

Hopefully Beechwood gets through to Russellville and gets past em and hopefully Paintsville makes it to semis and gets over either Hazard/Pikeville. Would love to see the Paintsville/Beechwood matchup! Battle of the Tigers! First we have to start with Paris! Step 1!