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You are a high school athletic director...

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...and you are looking for a coach for one of the major sports. Football, basketball, etc.

 

School has some students with ability and community/school support, but has struggled putting a decent product on the field/court in recent years. During the hiring process a coach comes into play that has a very very strong background. Wins a lot, has even won at a place not known for winning. Has a lot of experience and really knows the game. All good. BUT...this coach has had 6 different head coaching jobs in the past 12 years. He has no ties to your school or community.

 

There is also another candidate that catches your eye and impresses in the interview. Younger guy, vibrant...real go getter. Has had a couple of successful stops as a coordinator/asst. coach at a couple of good programs and has turned some heads...but has never been the head man. Has ties close by.

 

Both are stand up guys, meaning no legal/personal problems.

 

Maybe this isn't enough info, but just humor me here. As the AD, could/would you hire the first candidate, almost knowing he will be successful...but almost knowing he will be gone in no more than 2 years? Or do you dismiss him as a coaching "vagabond", a guy who just isn't going to stay anywhere for the long haul and go with potential?

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Me...if it's my decision I take the less experienced, younger guy. Might hit gold with him, he might wash out, but I would almost be assured to be in the very same position a year or two down the road, looking for another coach if I take the other guy.

 

The ONLY way I maybe take the "vagabond" coach is if I think the team is primed and has the talent the next 1-2 years of winning the state tournament. That might make me think a bit differently.

Best case with 1st guy is that he's successful and moves on in a couple of years. Worst case you fire him in a few years.

 

Worst case with 2nd guy, in a couple of years you have to fire him. Best case? He's you coach for many years and does a good job for you.

 

IMO you switng for the long term solution and if doesn't work out, you are no worse off than you are today.

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