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South Warren/3A #10 Edmonson County predictions

South Warren @ Edmonson County 6 members have voted

  1. 1. South Warren @ Edmonson County

    • South Warren (2-2)
      50%
    • Edmonson County (2-2)
      50%

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Battle of 2-2 teams, with the host Wildcats coming off consecutive losses. Do they get back in the Win column Friday night against South Warren?

Battle of 2-2 teams, with the host Wildcats coming off consecutive losses. Do they get back in the Win column Friday night against South Warren?

 

EC needs a win in this district matchup, or it will be a short season.

I feel Edmonson will go the air to get this win! Either way we have an interest in this game, win or lose!

Edmonson Co. 34-21.

South Warren has played a tougher schedule and has given up far fewer points. SW 21-7

I'll take South Warren as well. They have more kids in school than 5a Warren Central and have a very solid coaching staff.

Will South Warren stay 3a next year or will they get realigned?

My guess is next realignment SW will get bumped up to 4A and Warren Central will drop to 4A. I think Breckenridge will get moved, and you will have a district comprised of FS, ACS, SW, WC and WE. Somewhat like the old 3A district was back in the early 2000s.

South Warren may end up getting bumped up next year rather than in the next realignment, but I'm not certain to what class. I'd have to imagine they'll satisfy the 12% change in average male enrollment requirement that would necessitate them moving up, but whether that was to 4A or 5A I can't divine from the KHSAA site. I think they'd be just about a lock to be 5A by the time of the next major realignment for the 2015 season.

 

I'm not certain Warren Central will have shed enough enrollment to move down to 4A next year, but unless something changes, yes, they'll likely be 4A in 2015.

Julian in his infinite wisdom is going to let them play in 3a for 2 more years. I know some of the coaches down in that district and schedules have been set for 2 more years.

BTW, to see specifically what I was referencing, it is here: http://khsaa.org/httpdocs/football/realignment/20112014/finalalignmentcoverletter.pdf

 

The major passage is:

 

Term of the alignment: The alignment term will be for 2011-2012 through 2014-2015. The enrollment figures for 2009-2010 and 2008-2009 (average number of boys, grades 9-12 plus special education) were used to place schools in classes. There will be a review of alignments after the first two years with potential adjustments in class based on schools having a 12% or higher change (increase or decrease) in average boys enrollment, and such change placing a school below or above class bounds.

 

These were the numbers to place the schools: http://khsaa.org/httpdocs/football/realignment/20112014/warrencountyinformation.pdf

 

At that time South Warren was given a total student population of 771 for the realignment purposes. I don't believe it's an official number, but the Warren County Schools website lists them at 1,000 for the beginning of the 2012/13 school year. They had 413 males in the realignment numbers. A 12% increase would be just about 50 more. I'd have to imagine that in the 229 increase of total students that there are more than 50 males that were added. If it's even 100 then South Warren is going to be scraping the upper limits of 4A.

 

Warren Central for their part was listed at 1,002 total students at the time and is listed on the Warren County Schools website at 980 to start this school year. They're one of the smallest schools in 5A now with 530 males at that time, but they'd still be close to being in 5A with those numbers, and are certainly not going to be the 63 males lighter that it would take to bump them down next year.

Julian in his infinite wisdom is going to let them play in 3a for 2 more years. I know some of the coaches down in that district and schedules have been set for 2 more years.

 

Well that doesn't make a lot of sense to me given what they said at the time of realignment a couple of years ago, but that's great news for South Warren.

South Warren will be at least one of the Fav.'s to come out of the West next year in 3A I'd say. They'll have to beat PT and Ft. C, but given the numbers game, they will have distinct advantage over those two....See Mercer Co.

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