nWo

From the NWS-Louisville office, 

Correction to the statewide tornado count from May 26:  There were a total of 14 tornadoes Sunday in the Commonwealth of Kentucky.  The earlier count had not included the one that NWS Jackson confirmed near Corbin. Western Kentucky did have an EF-3 and an EF-2, while the remaining 12 tornadoes were all rated EF-1.

My daughter told me, my wife, today that the tornado in Warren County was headed for her subdivision but lifted just before it got there. She said she could hear it, and it sounded like a train heading in her direction.

12 hours ago, allsport71 said:

Thanks to nWo and TheDeuce for all the updates.

3 hours ago, Kentucky Windage said:

Yes! High level of appreciation for what both of those guys do. Lots of respect for them! 

Thank you both!

I forgot to mention that it was coming in from Vegas that's why it ran short of fuel.

6 minutes ago, theguru said:

One of my super technical, super smart friends posted this yesterday and I was thinking your plane may be on this map. 

Mine circled in that area northeast of Lexington then it had to divert to Huntington for fuel.

I just received a message from my daughter that she thought it was a tornado because it sounded like one.

The damage near my daughter's house has been rated, at least EF-1 by the NWS-Louisville office.

The survey in Northern Warren County is close to where Plum Springs is.

Damage at my daughter's house. She lives in Plum Springs.

My daughter sent me these pictures of damage near Plum Springs, which is just north of Bowling Green.

Everyone be safe! We finally made it to Vegas. 

1 hour ago, theguru said:

Seems like an odd place to divert to and refuel.  What am I missing?

They were circling around around cynthia eky and the like trying to wait out the storm and started  running low on fuel.

I'm sitting at bluegrass field. The second round of storms will start around 8 pm edt.

 Round #1 is over.
➔ Round #2 will begin around 8pm ET (7pm CT).
◆ Individual storms will develop over 
Western Kentucky and southern Indiana 
and congeal into a line moving southeast 
through the region.
➔ Expecting widespread damaging winds, spin-up 
tornadoes and hail.
➔ Flash flooding, especially over south-central 
Kentucky. Another 1-3 inches of rainfall, with 
locally higher amounts possible.

Just now, theguru said:

Where are you headed.

And I would say we just had gusts of at least 40mph in Florence with some fairly heavy rain but it calmed down almost as quick as it cranked up.

Las Vegas, our plane had to divert to Huntington to refuel. First time we've flown Allegiant the gate attends are great!

Our flight has been delayed. May be 1 1/2 hours.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 315
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   855 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Southern Indiana
     Western and Central Kentucky
     Western and Middle Tennessee

   * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 855 AM until
     300 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
       mph likely
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter likely

   SUMMARY...A bowing complex of severe thunderstorms will continue
   moving rapidly east, with widespread damaging winds likely.  Some
   gusts may exceed 75 mph. A few tornadoes are also possible.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 10 miles northwest of Fort Campbell
   KY to 40 miles south southeast of London KY. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.
 

The 06z HRRR serves as a decent example of my earlier post. The time frame is this morning at 7 a.m. EDT until Monday at 5 a.m. EDT. The Lightning Flash Density model suggests that a few of the storms might be strong. It displays the hourly total of lightning strikes from clouds to the ground. Up to six to ten strikes per hour may occur during the strongest storms.

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN MISSOURI...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...KENTUCKY...NORTHERN TENNESSEE...EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...

Widespread strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys later today into tonight. Multiple rounds of storms with the threat of large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible from parts of east-central Missouri into central/southern Illinois and Indiana, much of Kentucky, and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee.

A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected later today, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of the lower Missouri and mid-Mississippi Valleys into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. All severe hazards will be possible, including some threat of widespread damaging winds, isolated to scattered very large hail, and potentially a few strong tornadoes.

Throughout the day, a seasonably deep mid- to upper-level trough with many embedded shortwaves will travel eastward from the central CONUS into the OH/MS/TN Valleys and portions of the Midwest. Initially centered over eastern Kansas, a surface cyclone will cross Missouri and proceed eastward during the day before shifting northeastward toward the southern Great Lakes region later tonight. A following cold front will eventually enter the Mid-South after traveling southeast across the Ozarks. During the day, a warm front that was first located near the Ohio Valley region may move northward, but its advancement may be impeded by the effects of perhaps extensive convection throughout the area.

A significant QLCS( a line of thunderstorms not perfectly straight) may eventually form tonight along/east of the surface-low track and trailing cold front, and a greater area of the OH/TN Valleys and Mid South may continue to be at risk from destructive wind, hail, and maybe a few tornadoes. 

14 minutes ago, TheDeuce said:

Absolutely, I’ll be on it!

Thank you!

Highlights from the 3 pm EDT conference call today.

Severe weather is possible Sunday into Sunday night, with multiple waves possible during that time.

 The main hazard is damaging winds, with localized hurricane-force gusts possible. Tornadoes and large hail cannot be ruled out. A flash flood threat may also materialize with repeated rounds of storms. All interests in the Lower Ohio Valley should stay weather-aware over the holiday weekend

Timing Wave #1 (11AM - 6 PM EDT)

● Should be in a weakened or weakening state

● Arrive west of I-65 late morning through midday, Spreading east of I-65 through afternoon and early evening.

● These storms may be sub-severe when they arrive. A few warnings (mainly for wind or flooding) are possible

Timing Wave #2 (10 PM - 4 AM EDT)

● Conditional Threat. The strength of these storms will depend on the first wave, and whether we can destabilize

● Although it is a conditional threat, it will likely be the most significant if it materializes

● Widespread strong winds 40 to 50 mph, with pockets of damaging wind. Isolated instances of 75+ MPH winds are possible.

4 hours ago, TheDeuce said:

Thanks! I actually found this on YT last night because I’m subscribed to NWS Louisville. I hope they continue putting them online. 

@TheDeuce Hey, I'll be on in the morning but I don't know when/if I'll be able to post anything tomorrow evening. My plane is not scheduled to land in Las Vegas till around 6:30 PDT. If you could, could you post anything new that comes up for Sunday?

Email I received from NWS-Louisville with updated information:

Good morning -

Organized severe storms are still expected on Sunday. Late afternoon through after midnight is the most favorable time for severe weather, but any part of the day is fair game.

Damaging winds are the main threat, with localized hurricane-force gusts possible. Tornadoes, flooding, and large hail have a lower probability but are still on the table.

Anorther conference call is planned this afternoon at 3 PM EDT.

In the meantime, you can access the briefing slides (will be updated before the conference call) here:

https://www.weather.gov/media/lmk/DssPacket.pdf

Thanks,

NWS Louisville, KY