nWo

Please, everyone, do not let the showers and storms that came through this morning and early afternoon cause you to let your guard down. Everything was triggered by the warm front that moved through. Later today, the cold front still needs to pass. That is when the big show will happen. 

The modeling data shows that the low-pressure system associated with this system is strengthening. 

The latest update maps from the Storm Prediction Center. It appears that the threat has increased from this morning.

This is the new, new to me, hourly mesoscale analysis model. It measures low-level (surface) and high-level vorticity (3 km about 2 miles up), twisting in the atmosphere. The red is 3 km up in the atmosphere. The blue represents the surface. Whenever they are one over another, the environment is favorable for supercells that could produce tornadoes. This is about 6 pm tonight. Not looking good.

Just now, TribeTime said:

What time should we be expecting the main event and with the sun poking out, how bad does it look?

Not knowing where you are here, my thinking is from 2 pm into the evening. The storms are already firing up in western Kentucky.

Break time until the main show later this afternoon. It's not looking good.

Storms just pasted through Richmond now the sun is coming out. 

13 minutes ago, TheDeuce said:

I use RadarScope on my phone. I pay for it, but I think there may be a free version. 

I use Radar Omega.

14 minutes ago, Bluegrasscard said:

Radars on web seem stuck.  Wife uses LEX18 and I use Wonderground.  Both are way behind and not updating for some reason. 

 

 

There's a national data outage that the NOAA has been experiencing.  So some of the radars and items they send out are not working properly.

5 minutes ago, TheDeuce said:

I'll keep you posted. 

Good deal! it is going to be a busy day. The BGP Storm Team!! 😉

3 minutes ago, TheDeuce said:

I'm already seeing some clearing looking west from St. Matthews. That's not good if it's already clearing. 

I was hoping it wouldn't clear so fast.

We've had brief breaks in the clouds and sunshine here in Richmond. I've been outside taking care of some chores and it is humid. 

I just remember using a new tool (3cape) yesterday to predict possible tornadoes. This is almost the same area I drew yesterday. 

Just now, TheDeuce said:

@nWoWill this early morning round not stabilize the atmosphere? Or is the thought that it will move through fast enough to clear out and warm up again?

The atmosphere will destabilize again this afternoon. The destabilization will be more intense this afternoon and more widespread. 

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 73
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   655 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Southern Indiana
     Central and Northern Kentucky

   * Effective this Tuesday morning from 655 AM until NOON EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 75 mph possible
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...A severe squall line will continue to move east across
   portions of the Ohio Valley this morning.  A few tornadoes are
   possible with the stronger storm-scale circulations embedded within
   the line, in addition to the risk for scattered severe gusts.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 75 miles west southwest of Louisville
   KY to 55 miles east northeast of Lexington KY. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 72
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   200 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Southern Illinois
     Southwest Indiana
     Western Kentucky
     Southeast Missouri

   * Effective this Tuesday morning from 200 AM until 800 AM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move
   east-northeast across the Watch overnight into the early morning. 
   Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible, in
   addition to a risk for a couple of tornadoes with the more intense
   cells or line segments.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 30 miles south southwest of
   Farmington MO to 40 miles northeast of Evansville IN. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential is expected through late
   morning across parts of northern Kentucky, southern Indiana and
   southwest Ohio. Damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible
   with this activity and a watch will likely be needed in the next
   hour.

   DISCUSSION...Upstream convection across southern IL/western KY into
   southwest IN will continue to spread generally east this morning.
   While instability remains modest across the region, strong vertical
   shear is present and favorable for continued organized convection.
   An increase in lightning trends across southern IL and the
   background CAPE/shear environment suggest this activity will
   continue within the vicinity of an effective outflow/stationary
   front draped across southern IL/IN/southwest OH. Damaging gusts will
   be possible with generally linear/bowing storm mode. However,
   enlarged, curved low-level hodographs and 0-1 km SRH greater than
   200 m2/s2 suggest some tornado risk also will accompany this
   activity. A tornado watch downstream from WW 72 will likely be
   needed in the next hour. It should be noted that additional severe
   potential will overspread this same area again later this afternoon

I'll be back on later this morning. I woke up at 1:30 this morning to go over the situation. I got some things to do this morning and then got a little rest. People may not know this, but covering these events can be quite draining. 

ttt

What I observed in the most recent HRRR modeling data is as follows:. I am not fond of what I am witnessing. As far north as middle Ohio, dew points, or tornado juice, could reach the mid-to-upper 60s. This is causing a large, severe weather event, in addition to other upper and lower atmospheric circumstances. Breaks in the cloud cover before this afternoon are another serious issue. More atmospheric destabilization will be possible as a result of the breaks. Early in the afternoon is when the intense convection should start, and as the day goes on, it should get stronger.

I sincerely hope I am mistaken, but I can not stress enough how much everyone reading this needs to get in touch with friends and family by this afternoon to make sure they are prepared.
 

Latest update:

Overnight, there has been an increase in the serious threat for this afternoon. A level 3 Enhanced Risk Area covers nearly the whole state of Kentucky. A level 4 Moderate Risk Area now covers portions of the state from the I-64 corridor northward. A small area in western Kentucky is classified as a level 2 Slight Risk Area.

A possibly substantial severe weather outbreak is anticipated for this afternoon and overnight, with the Ohio Valley having the highest probability. A few large/long-track tornadoes could be part of the outbreak. It seems like things are becoming dangerous here. Now is the time for everyone to start getting ready. Examine or start using your emergency action plan. Maintain many avenues of communication for potential alerts related to your region. I will be keeping a careful eye on this and posting updates as soon as the data allows me to.

30 minutes ago, theguru said:

It rained hard here for a short time and I would say we had at least 35mph winds that were blowing almost due south.  

The first round of tomorrow's storms should be in your area between 4 and 7 am.

10 minutes ago, TheDeuce said:

I've started sending out my pre-warnings to my circle to keep a heads up. They always look to me to keep them informed, I take it very serious, as I know you do you!

I agree I do the same thing.