nWo

There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday morning before daybreak. There will not be much of a serious threat from those. There will be another round of storms in the late morning or early afternoon. It is more likely that these storms will be strong or severe. By late Wednesday night, storms are predicted to move east of the area.

Severe storms have the potential to produce localized tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. It is also conceivable for locations that receive frequent rainfall to experience minor flooding. 

A severe weather event may be in store for us, maybe beginning on Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday. Western Kentucky is currently categorized as a level 2 out of 5 Slight Risk Area, with a 15% probability of strong to severe storms on Tuesday, according to the Storm Prediction Center. As we approach closer, there is a risk that this gets bumped up to level 3 out of 5 Enhanced Risk Area. The exact location, severity, and timing of the extreme weather are still somewhat unknown. The course of events will change during the following few days. Return for updates. As always, be prepared for everything.

Remember, forewarned is forearmed! 

There is an isolated threat for a few strong to severe storms, mainly in the afternoon and early evening hours, across southern Indiana and central Kentucky. The best chances for any severe weather will generally be east of the I-65 corridor, but confidence in severe storms remains low. 

Tonight and Thursday are predicted to see more waves of showers and thunderstorms, with Friday morning seeing a decrease in precipitation. Locally, on Thursday, a few strong storms are probable in central Kentucky and southern Indiana (primarily in the afternoon and evening). There will be a comparatively higher risk of severe storms from northeastern Kentucky into Ohio.

East of the surface cyclone track that is steadily deepening, a synoptically conducive corridor for a few supercells and organized clusters should form. In this area, there should be a time when the daytime heating cycle and an overspreading mid-level dry slot coincide, resulting in an occurrence of early afternoon convection in the left-exit region of the strong mid-level jet over the Southeast and southern Appalachians. A supercell wind profile should be evident, even though potential energy will remain weak. There is a chance of a few tornadoes, isolated to dispersed damaging winds, and isolated, powerful hail.

Latest maps

I have to admit, I'm impressed with the SPC Mesoscale Analysis 3Cape model data. The confirmed tornadoes were pretty close to the area that it showed. I will be using it in the future during severe weather events. 

22 minutes ago, TheDeuce said:

Trying to decide if I want to head west or north for totality. I'm trying to get home before 10pm, lol. 

It looks like it will be best to travel to Illinois or Missouri.

These maps are at 2 pm EDT on Monday, April 8, 2024.

 Tornado Warning NKY

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
548 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

TNC013-151-022230-
/O.CON.KMRX.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240402T2230Z/
Campbell TN-Scott TN-
548 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT FOR CAMPBELL
AND EAST CENTRAL SCOTT COUNTIES...

At 548 PM EDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located 7 miles east of Huntsville, or 11 miles southeast of Oneida,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Public confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
         is possible.

Locations impacted include...
La Follette, Jacksboro, Jellico, Caryville, Elk Valley, Indian
Mountain State Park, Fincastle, Royal Blue, and White Oak.

This includes Interstate 75 in Tennessee between mile markers 138 and
161.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Those along the Tennessee border near Whitley Co. need to be on the alert. A PDS Tornado warning has been issued near Jellico. The storm is moving in a northeasterly direction. 

Mesoscale Discussion 0356
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0434 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024

   Areas affected...Central Kentucky...Northern Middle
   Tennessee...Southwest Ohio

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 78...

   Valid 022134Z - 022300Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 78 continues.

   SUMMARY...The potential for multiple discrete supercells and
   attendant tornadoes is increasing along an axis from southwest Ohio
   into central Kentucky and northern Middle Tennessee.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radars show a line of thunderstorms
   intensifying from southeast IN into west-central KY and northwest
   TN.  Multiple cells in this line have developed mid-level rotation
   in the past 45 min, with reported tornadoes in the storm west of
   Cincinnati.  Clouds have thinned ahead of this activity, where
   temperatures have locally warmed into the mid 70s along with
   dewpoints in the mid 60s.  A 50+ knot southerly low-level jet is
   aiding in impressive shear parameters, with VAD profiles showing
   0-3km SRH values of 300-500 m2/s2.  Discrete supercells in this line
   appear to be the primary concern for tornadoes (potentially strong)
   during the next 1-2 hours.  Steep mid-level lapse rates will also
   promote large hail in the stronger cells.

Warnings are being sent out via our BGP Twitter page.

21 minutes ago, TribeTime said:

Is the system going to live up to the hype or has it weakened?

just now beginning. It has not become weaker.  Its power will increase. It should peak between 8 and 9 p.m. EDT.

Report of hail in southern Madison County.

The main show is now forming and getting organized in western Kentucky.