January 20, 200917 yr Author The market reacts to new information. Was Barack Obama's inauguration a surprise development?Maybe the market was hoping that he would change his mind at the last minute.
January 21, 200917 yr The market reacts to new information. Was Barack Obama's inauguration a surprise development? Do you have that article from a few months back about how there is more pessimism with a Democrat President, because businesses expects anti-business practices?
January 21, 200917 yr Do you have that article from a few months back about how there is more pessimism with a Democrat President, because businesses expects anti-business practices? Isn't that the basis of the research that shows that FDR's New Deal actually delayed the ending of the Great Depression instead of solved it?
January 21, 200917 yr Isn't that the basis of the research that shows that FDR's New Deal actually delayed the ending of the Great Depression instead of solved it? I am not sure what you are saying.
January 21, 200917 yr I am not sure what you are saying. Anti-business actions from FDR delayed businesses from getting in and doing their job to move the country out of the Great Depression fully. Isn't that the basis of the research done by the UCLA pair?
January 21, 200917 yr Author Here is an interesting chart that shows the Dow Jones closings on the past 11 inauguration days. Barack Obama George W Bush 01/20/09 01/20/05 -332.13 -68.5 -4.07% -0.65% 01/20/01 -9.35 -0.09% Bill Clinton 01/20/97 10.77 0.16% 01/20/93 -14.04 -0.43% George H W Bush 01/20/89 -3.75 -0.17% Ronald Reagan 01/20/85 34.01 2.77% 01/20/81 -20.31 -2.09% Jimmy Carter 01/20/77 -9.64 -1.00% Gerald Ford 08/09/74 -7.59 -0.97% Richard Nixon 01/20/73 -7.38 -0.72%
January 21, 200917 yr Do you have that article from a few months back about how there is more pessimism with a Democrat President, because businesses expects anti-business practices? I remember reading an article over the summer in a business magazine about how the market during a Democratic President's first term has historically outperformed the first terms of Republican Presidents. The theory was that the pessimism associated with the expected anti-business policies was overblown. I don't have the article--I read it while waiting for an oil change.
January 21, 200917 yr Here is an interesting chart that shows the Dow Jones closings on the past 11 inauguration days. Barack Obama George W Bush 01/20/09 01/20/05 -332.13 -68.5 -4.07% -0.65% 01/20/01 -9.35 -0.09% Bill Clinton 01/20/97 10.77 0.16% 01/20/93 -14.04 -0.43% George H W Bush 01/20/89 -3.75 -0.17% Ronald Reagan 01/20/85 34.01 2.77% 01/20/81 -20.31 -2.09% Jimmy Carter 01/20/77 -9.64 -1.00% Gerald Ford 08/09/74 -7.59 -0.97% Richard Nixon 01/20/73 -7.38 -0.72% What does the above tell us? Anything?
January 21, 200917 yr Author What does the above tell us? Anything?It tells me expectations are low. If the economy does not totally collapse The One will be credited with a save, much as FDR was credited with ending the Great Depression by many people.
January 21, 200917 yr It tells me expectations are low. If the economy does not totally collapse The One will be credited with a save, much as FDR was credited with ending the Great Depression by many people. Should economic expectations be higher than they are? Or are they about where they should be?
January 21, 200917 yr Author Should economic expectations be higher than they are? Or are they about where they should be?The media will ensure that expectations are very low and progress is greatly exaggerated.
January 21, 200917 yr The media will ensure that expectations are very low and progress is greatly exaggerated. Fine but that's not what I meant. Does Hoot think that economic expectations are where they should be? I heard a guy yesterday say it would be 2011 before we see a fairly strong economy again. That would seem to warrant low expectations by the public.
January 21, 200917 yr What does the above tell us? Anything? What it tells me is that there appears to be no relationship between the fluctuation in the Dow upon swearing in and economic success of the President.
January 21, 200917 yr Author Fine but that's not what I meant. Does Hoot think that economic expectations are where they should be? I heard a guy yesterday say it would be 2011 before we see a fairly strong economy again. That would seem to warrant low expectations by the public.If the private sector believes that Obama will follow through on all of his spending plans, and many people do, then Wall Street's economic expectations are exactly where they should be. In fact, I believe they may be a bit too optimistic.
January 21, 200917 yr Author What it tells me is that there appears to be no relationship between the fluctuation in the Dow upon swearing in and economic success of the President. Since the creation of the Dow Jones Index in 1884, the index has never dropped as sharply on the day of a president's inauguration as it did yesterday.
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