February 1, 200818 yr Here are the primaries. They have different rules. For the Republicans and in some states it is do or die as there are winner takes it all states. Some, like California, divvy their delegates at proportional. Some have caucuses. If someone could find a list of delegates for each state on each side, that would be good. February 5 Alabama primary X X February 5 Alaska caucus X X February 5 Arizona primary X X February 5 Arkansas primary X X February 5 California primary X X February 5 Colorado caucus X X February 5 Connecticut primary X X February 5 Delaware primary X X February 5 Georgia primary X X February 5 Idaho caucus Democrats only February 5 Illinois primary X X February 5 Kansas primary democrats only February 5 Massachusetts primary X X February 5 Minnesota caucus X X February 5 Missouri primary X X February 5 New Jersey primary X X February 5 New Mexico caucus democrats only February 5 New York primary X X February 5 North Dakota caucus X X February 5 Oklahoma primary X X February 5 Tennessee primary X X February 5 Utah primary X X http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-01-31-Democrats_N.htm "I think it's over Feb. 5," she told USA TODAY in an interview four days before Iowa's Jan. 3 caucuses. "It's probably likely that the nomination will be wrapped up by midnight West Coast time." After a month in which momentum has seesawed between Clinton and Barack Obama, however, many party leaders and political experts think that deadline may have to be extended. "My feeling is that both candidates are going to be awfully close in terms of delegate count after Tuesday," Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., an Obama supporter said as the candidates campaigned for a de facto national primary in which voters in 22 states will award 1,681 delegates to the Democratic national convention. One reason for the Obama camp's optimism: Party rules require states to award delegates proportionally. There are no winner-take-all Democratic contests. That means either candidate can win enough delegates to remain a serious contender even if he or she doesn't win many states. http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-01-31-republicans-supertuesday_N.htm There are 1,023 delegates at stake Feb. 5; 1,191 are needed to win the nomination •Huckabee is in Oklahoma and Missouri today; Saltsman said he'll also be in Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia and Arkansas in the days leading up to Super Tuesday. He is counting on help from local elected officials and anti-abortion groups, among others. "If you take all the Southern states together, we think we can do very well," Saltsman said. •McCain's schedule is a blur of rallies and fundraisers. He's in St. Louis and Chicago today; Nashville, Atlanta and Birmingham on Saturday; Fairfield, Conn., on Sunday; Boston and Hamilton, N.J., on Monday; New York and Phoenix on Tuesday. VIP McCain backers are handling smaller states. The RealClearPolitics.com poll average on Thursday showed McCain ahead in the winner-take-all states of New York (98 delegates), New Jersey (52 delegates), Arizona (50 delegates) and Connecticut (27 delegates). He was also ahead in California (170 delegates allocated by winner of congressional district) and Illinois (70 delegates, directly elected by whom they support). •Romney is ahead in his home state of Massachusetts (40 delegates awarded proportionally) and is likely to win 36 delegates in Utah, where many Republicans share his Mormon faith. His campaign is active in California, with phone calls and door-knocking in heavily GOP areas, and in several states with low-profile contests. Romney is in Colorado today, and Saturday night he'll be in Minnesota. Both states hold straw polls at precinct caucuses; no delegates are awarded. He's spending midday Saturday off the trail to attend the funeral of Gordon Hinckley, president of the Mormon Church, in Salt Lake City. As of late Thursday, Romney's schedule and TV mix were in flux. "It's tentative depending on where we see opportunities. We want to retain some flexibility," senior adviser Tom Rath said.
February 1, 200818 yr I counted 1081 GOP delegates. 2264 DNC delegates. Below are my predictions. GOP McCain 712 Romney 182 Huckabee 158 Paul 29 DNC Clinton 1328 Obama 936 Nobody seals a bid on Tuesday.
February 1, 200818 yr Author I counted 1081 GOP delegates. 2264 DNC delegates. Below are my predictions. GOP McCain 712 Romney 182 Huckabee 158 Paul 29 DNC Clinton 1328 Obama 936 Nobody seals a bid on Tuesday. Nobody seals it but if your predictions hold true, they can pretty much write in the names of McCain and Clinton as the candidates. Here is a link to the latest polls. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html
February 1, 200818 yr Nobody seals it but if your predictions hold true, they can pretty much write in the names of McCain and Clinton as the candidates. For me that would be the 2nd worst possible result. Guliani and Clinton as candidates would be my worst nightmare.
February 1, 200818 yr Author For me that would be the 2nd worst possible result. Guliani and Clinton as candidates would be my worst nightmare. My support for McCain in 2000 waned because I wasn't totally convinced of his commitment to the pro life issue. I still am not convinced that he just pays it lip service and not committed to it. Romney has convinced me that his flip flop is sincere. Huckabee, of course, is my first choice. If Obama or Hillary were pro-life, I would strongly consider either. Although I am not for government health service or surrendering in Iraq by immediately pulling the troops out, I do find myself siding with them on several issues. I did find it interesting that last night Hillary made several strong comments leading up to her decisions to vote for the Iraq resolution. She even said that during Bill's term they got intelligence that Saddam had some very bad weapons. That comment is not getting play by anyone. Here it is: http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/31/dem.debate.transcript/ Some people now think that this was a very clear open and shut case. We bombed them for days in 1998 because Saddam Hussein threw out inspectors. We had evidence that they had a lot of bad stuff for a very long time which we discovered after the first Gulf War. Knowing that he was a megalomaniac, knowing he would not want to compete for attention with Osama bin Laden, there were legitimate concerns about what he might do. So, I think I made a reasoned judgment. Unfortunately, the person who actually got to execute the policy did not. The leading Democrat candidate indicating that at the time of the decision, there were good reasons to be concerned about Saddam Hussein and what he would do. That puts a monkey wrench in the Dem supporters arguments against the actions we took
February 1, 200818 yr My support for McCain in 2000 waned because I wasn't totally convinced of his commitment to the pro life issue. I still am not convinced that he just pays it lip service and not committed to it. Romney has convinced me that his flip flop is sincere. Huckabee, of course, is my first choice. If Obama or Hillary were pro-life, I would strongly consider either. Although I am not for government health service or surrendering in Iraq by immediately pulling the troops out, I do find myself siding with them on several issues. I did find it interesting that last night Hillary made several strong comments leading up to her decisions to vote for the Iraq resolution. She even said that during Bill's term they got intelligence that Saddam had some very bad weapons. That comment is not getting play by anyone. Here it is: http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/31/dem.debate.transcript/ Some people now think that this was a very clear open and shut case. We bombed them for days in 1998 because Saddam Hussein threw out inspectors. We had evidence that they had a lot of bad stuff for a very long time which we discovered after the first Gulf War. Knowing that he was a megalomaniac, knowing he would not want to compete for attention with Osama bin Laden, there were legitimate concerns about what he might do. So, I think I made a reasoned judgment. Unfortunately, the person who actually got to execute the policy did not. Ron Paul is the most consistent on abortion. I believe the NKYRTL (Northern Kentucky Right to Life) was disappointed in the national group for endorsing Fred Thompson.
February 1, 200818 yr Author Ron Paul is the most consistent on abortion. I believe the NKYRTL (Northern Kentucky Right to Life) was disappointed in the national group for endorsing Fred Thompson. I think Mike Huckabee has been consistent on the issue, too.
February 1, 200818 yr I think Mike Huckabee has been consistent on the issue, too. That's true, National Right to Life didn't support him (from what I read) because they didn't think a Huckabee nomination wore as realistic (in retrospect, much more then Fred Thompson) and it probably would have helped. IMO Nationa Right to Life messed up.
February 1, 200818 yr That's true, National Right to Life didn't support him (from what I read) because they didn't think a Huckabee nomination wore as realistic (in retrospect, much more then Fred Thompson) and it probably would have helped. IMO Nationa Right to Life messed up. That's sickening. Lets support the one who will win instead of the one we most agree with.
February 2, 200818 yr For me that would be the 2nd worst possible result. Guliani and Clinton as candidates would be my worst nightmare. What would be your best scenario?
February 2, 200818 yr For me that would be the 2nd worst possible result. Guliani and Clinton as candidates would be my worst nightmare. It could get a bit worse for you, then, if McCain selects Rudy as his mate. Hillary/Obama vs.McCain/Rudy :scared: ..... Conservatives pray for the Rapture!
February 2, 200818 yr What would be your best scenario? I've yet to see my best scenario. I guess from the candidates left to choose from Romney and Obama would be my choices. For running mates I'd go with Richardson and McCain. I don't want McCain to be president, but I think he'd be helpful to the ticket.
February 2, 200818 yr I've yet to see my best scenario. I guess from the candidates left to choose from Romney and Obama would be my choices. For running mates I'd go with Richardson and McCain. I don't want McCain to be president, but I think he'd be helpful to the ticket. I don't know that I have seen a best scenario in my lifetime. No GREAT presidents, for sure. I find myself thinking every election year that surely somewhere in this great country there are better candidates for the highest office than those that actually compete for it.
February 4, 200818 yr Author I heard Missouri is a key state. They have voted for the winner in 25 of 26 Presidential elections. They called them a purple state. http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-02-04-super-states_N.htm How delegates are chosen Democrats require states to apportion pledged convention delegates among all contenders who draw at least 15% support in a primary or caucuses. That can make a second-place finish in congressional districts and states almost as rewarding as a victory. The GOP leaves that decision to state party organizations. Most divide delegates to the Republican National Convention, being held Sept. 1-4 in St. Paul, among candidates with significant support. But some of Super Tuesday's biggest prizes — including New York, New Jersey, Missouri and Arizona — are winner-take-all. Democrats designate some elected and party officials in each state as "super delegates" to their national convention, set for Aug. 25-28 in Denver. While their support is courted by the candidates, they aren't officially bound to anyone. Since the article mentions nothing about Republican "super delegate" types, I assume there are not any. Anyone got any information to confirm or deny that Republican's are or are not involved with Super Delegates?
February 4, 200818 yr I have not taken time to predict the number of delegates, but I believe Romney is going to do much better than the pundits expected a few days ago. The most recent poll by Zogby has Romney up over McCain by 8 points in California and he is closing fast in Georgia. If Romney can win California, Massachussets, and Georgia and make a strong second place showing in several other states, he will still have a shot at the nomination. I don't see Huckabee winning any states, so if he is really running for the top prize maybe he will finally drop out on Wednesday. Conservatives seem to be waking up to the fact that a vote for Huckabee is a vote for John McCain.
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