February 15, 200719 yr Author Looks like multiple personality DePaul beating Marquette might be the only Top 25 upset...
February 15, 200719 yr I'm not sure you are aware of this but point spreads are designed to geterate equal action on both sides, not predict the game... So if half of the people think the Las Vegas favorite will win by more than 3, and half think they will win by less than 3 or lose, it's not an upset if they win...real simple... Only an upset (but maybe not surprising) if the Las Vegas favorite loses...
February 15, 200719 yr I'm not sure you are aware of this but point spreads are designed to geterate equal action on both sides, not predict the game... Actually that is wrong. I've read a lot of things about this, they try to figure out what the general public will bet, but they do not try to get equal action per say. That's what I thought too, but they try to outsmart the general public. They study it a lot more than the genaral public does.
February 15, 200719 yr Looks like multiple personality DePaul beating Marquette might be the only Top 25 upset... Depaul was favored by 2. I think it shows that the top 25 isn't a big deal. It's just a number for the fans.
February 15, 200719 yr There are these things called "bad lines" that try to get people to bet a ranked team vs an unranked team , when the ranked team is the underdog. Dont trust those spreads to much... I think what you're saying is helping me make my point. They don't put out "bad lines". They try to get people to bet a certain team, and they usually win about 65% of the time. Last night they probably didn't win w/ the Washington St. game, but they probably did win w/ the Marquette game. They would not put out a "bad line" so they can lose money on purpose.
February 15, 200719 yr Author Depaul was favored by 2. I think it shows that the top 25 isn't a big deal. It's just a number for the fans. From the premise of the thread I was looking at Top 25 teams going down as it was a trend this week. If you want to be a wet blanket go ahead...
February 15, 200719 yr Author I think what you're saying is helping me make my point. They don't put out "bad lines". They try to get people to bet a certain team, and they usually win about 65% of the time. Last night they probably didn't win w/ the Washington St. game, but they probably did win w/ the Marquette game. They would not put out a "bad line" so they can lose money on purpose. Right. The goal is to not lose money over picking the game right. Pretty simple concept...
February 15, 200719 yr From the premise of the thread I was looking at Top 25 teams going down as it was a trend this week. If you want to be a wet blanket go ahead... The question asked said what say you. I was saying that it wouldn't be a huge upset if a team that was favored would beat the ranked team at home. If you want to call that a wet blanket go ahead...
February 15, 200719 yr Right. The goal is to not lose money over picking the game right. Pretty simple concept... They don't want to lose money obviously, but they don't try to make it 50/50 either. They come up w/ a true line. Then they try to decide what the public would bet at that line. Then they put out the line. Then they adjust the line depending on where the money is. It's not just a simple lets get the money 50/50. They most certainly try to win the game against the spread.
February 15, 200719 yr Author The question asked said what say you. I was saying that it wouldn't be a huge upset if a team that was favored would beat the ranked team at home. If you want to call that a wet blanket go ahead... Washington State beat Washington by 28 already this year, and reguardless of a betting line if you thought Washington was a favorite in this game I'm not sure what to tell you...
February 15, 200719 yr Washington State beat Washington by 28 already this year, and reguardless of a betting line if you thought Washington was a favorite in this game I'm not sure what to tell you... Yet you thought they were or you wouldn't have predicted the "upset". I know they were favored in that game. I looked at the line yesterday and it said Washington was favored by 3. Just because a team already beat a team earlier in the year by a certain margin doesn't mean it would happen again the next time they played. Are you saying that if Ohio State played at Penn State Saturday the spread should only be 2, or that they would win by 2? My whole point is that the top 25 really doesn't mean that much. It's a poll done either by writers that don't watch as much basketball as you and other people on here. Or it's done by a coah or someone who works for them that are far more worried about their own team and conference. There are going to be upsets no matter what, but the people from Las Vegas Sports Consultants probably put out the most accurate top 25.
February 15, 200719 yr They don't want to lose money obviously, but they don't try to make it 50/50 either. They come up w/ a true line. Then they try to decide what the public would bet at that line. Then they put out the line. Then they adjust the line depending on where the money is. It's not just a simple lets get the money 50/50. They most certainly try to win the game against the spread. Sure they try to get it 50/50 — that's where the "vig" comes into play. It's not like the bookies are taking catastrophic losses just because some 20-point dog covers.
February 16, 200719 yr Sure they try to get it 50/50 — that's where the "vig" comes into play. It's not like the bookies are taking catastrophic losses just because some 20-point dog covers. Ok, of course they don't mind if it's 50/50 b/c they make money. But I've read up on this and they try to make more money than just the "vig". They decide on a true line. Then they try to decide how much and on who the gneral public will bet on a line close to that. They try to win more than just the "vig". Last night is a good example. I would be very willing to bet that the casinos did very well on the Oregon game and the Purdue game. I'm guessing that they didn't just collect the "vig".
February 16, 200719 yr Washington State beat Washington by 28 already this year, and reguardless of a betting line if you thought Washington was a favorite in this game I'm not sure what to tell you... Indiana beat Purdue a month ago by 35. Last night Purdue was favored by 2.5 what gives?
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