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BGP Outlook for March 2-4, 2026

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Temperature
Above-normal temperatures are expected for the western and southern parts of the state, including areas like Louisville and Bowling Green. Near-normal temperatures are favored for central and eastern parts of Kentucky. Below-normal temperatures could affect the northern portions of the state, particularly along the Ohio River, as the cold air advection from the Northeast may extend into northern Kentucky.

Precipitation
Above-normal precipitation is likely, especially in the eastern two-thirds of the state, due to an incoming system from the Great Plains and the Midwest. Expect moderate rainfall, potentially totaling more than an inch in some areas, especially around Lexington, Frankfort, and areas to the east. The Southern and Western parts of Kentucky, including Paducah and Owensboro, might experience lighter precipitation, but chances for above-normal rainfall are still slightly elevated. Slightly elevated chances for above-normal precipitation will also extend into the Northeast, around Ashland and surrounding regions.

Winter Precipitation Possibilities
Given the expected temperature patterns, there could be some light snow or ice potential, particularly in the northern and eastern parts of the state. If the cold air advection extends farther south than currently expected, areas near the Ohio River and parts of northern Kentucky might see snow or sleet as the mid-level trough over eastern Canada may bring brief periods of colder air. However, this is expected to be isolated and likely not widespread. Accumulation amounts are expected to be light, with the heaviest potential for winter precipitation being in areas around Maysville, Covington, and parts of Lexington.

Overall, winter weather impacts in Kentucky are unlikely to be significant, but it’s something to keep an eye on as cold air may bring a few isolated wintery showers to the northern sections of the state.

 

General Overview
Overall, the pattern indicates a wetter trend with increased rainfall for Kentucky. Temperature-wise, expect a mixture of above-normal and near-normal conditions across the state, with colder trends possibly affecting the far northern parts of Kentucky. Confidence is moderate due to some uncertainty in the exact placement of the cold front and precipitation patterns.

I am sure this is going to change, but this morning my Weather Channel app was saying 1-3 inches of snow Sunday night and another inch possible Monday. What are they seeing that no one else seems to be seeing? ?

10 hours ago, AvidSportsJunkie856 said:

I am sure this is going to change, but this morning my Weather Channel app was saying 1-3 inches of snow Sunday night and another inch possible Monday. What are they seeing that no one else seems to be seeing? ?

NWS showing nothing for Somerset area this weekend, then some rain early next week. You must be pretty far from me.

11 hours ago, AvidSportsJunkie856 said:

I am sure this is going to change, but this morning my Weather Channel app was saying 1-3 inches of snow Sunday night and another inch possible Monday. What are they seeing that no one else seems to be seeing? ?

The Weather Channel app is grossly unreliable more than like 48 hours out. 

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I've been very busy the past couple of days. I'm getting ready to post about this. 

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