12th Region: Week 3

[se7ens]

As we cruise into the holiday break, competition in the 12th is tightening. There are clearly no unstoppable juggernauts at the top, and some of the teams towards the bottom have enough talent to always be a threat to cause an upset. 
This past week saw the team at the top take an L on the road, closing the gap between 1 and 2. There were also some near upsets at the hands of Somerset Christian and Rockcastle County.

The action pauses for a few days this week before we launch into another weekend of holiday tournaments, classics and showcases. Let’s take a look.

Rankings

1. Mercer County - The Titans fell to Taylor County on the road but beat Harrison County and Tates Creek at home. Trevor Ellis scored 17 and had 6 rebounds in the win over Harrison. They face Bethlehem in their opening game at the Taylor County Farm Bureau Holiday Classic.

2. Danville Christian - DCA had just one game last week, a win over Oldham County. Titus Boyd, back in action after returning from injury, had 14. Lual Ayiei had 17 and Geu Leek Ateny had 16. They travel to Ashland for the legendary AIT and open with Russell.

3. Southwestern - The Warriors down south had a pair of wins over Somerset Christian and McCreary Central but failed to compete with Madison Central, losing by 25. They now travel to Madison Central for the Richmond Truck and Car Center Holiday Classic where they open up with Bethel-Tate from Ohio.

4. Lincoln County - The Patriots defeated Marion County, West Jessamine and Trinity Christian last week. Defensively they may currently be the most fine-tuned team in the region. Baird, Robbins and Fugate are a dominant trio and when all three are at top performance, Lincoln will be hard to beat. They face Madison Southern in their opener at Madison Central’s Richmond Car and Truck Center tournament. 

5. West Jessamine - The Colts fell to Lincoln County before they went up the road to Sayre for the Republic. They won their first game against John Hardin but then fell to gosh Sayre. They face Wayne County today at Sayre. Luk Tut and Trey Coffman both had 14 against John Hardin. 

6. Pulaski County - The Maroons beat Wayne County, Harlan and Spring Hill (TN) last week but fell to Henry Clay. They are now on a prolonged hiatus until January 7th. Ethan Idlewine scored 19 in the overtime win against Wayne.

7. Somerset - The Briar Jumpers defeated Casey County, Cumberland County and Somerset Christian as their strong start to the year continues. Aedyn Absher is averaging 17.7 points per game. They play Model and Bell County at Corbin later this week.

8. Boyle County - The Rebels defeated Rockcastle County and the Cincinnati Trailblazers (at Highlands) before falling to Highlands. Harper Webb had 17 in the win over the Rockets. They play three games at Estill County this week.

9. Wayne County - The Cardinals fell to Pulaski County in overtime before  winning their opening game in the Republic over Clay County by 1 point thanks in large part to Korbyn Edwards’ 19 points. They wrap up the Republic against West Jessamine and play in East Jessamine’s tournament later on in the week, opening with PRP.

10. Garrard County - The Golden Lions won the Berea Holiday Classic, defeating host Berea in the championship game. Jaydon Noe is averaging 16.5. They host the Four Banks Classic this week.

11. McCreary Central - The Raiders have four games this week, three in the Chain Rock Classic. Peyton Higginbotham is averaging nearly 20 points per game.

12. East Jessamine - East defeated Burgin for their first win of the year but lost their next 3 games as their brutal schedule continues. They travel to Western Hills tonight before hosting their own tournament after Christmas.

13. Danville - The Ads were off last week. They face Rockcastle tonight before playing in Thomas Nelson’s event after Christmas.

14. Somerset Christian - It was a tough week for the Cougars as they lost three games, none by more than 5. They play in Corbin’s event after Christmas.

15.  Trinity Christian - The Titans travel to Bath County later this week, opening up with Metcalfe County.

16. Rockcastle County - The Rockets competed with Boyle County and showed some signs that they could climb out of these lower rungs of the region. They face Danville tonight.

17. Burgin - The Bulldogs defeated Frankfort Christian. They host their own event after Christmas.

18. Casey County - Still no wins for the Rebels but they hope to change that as they travel to Burgin for three games after Christmas.

19. Kentucky School for the Deaf - The Colonels fell to Wellspring and are off until January 7th.

[LethalPG]

Josh Bruner has changed Somerset team.  He’s the last in a long line of Bruners (4 siblings) who have athletic tradition at SHS.  Coming off a strong SR football season, Josh has transitioned nicely since the Rock game shooting the ball great and bringing all the intangibles to the floor.  He missed most of last year with a shoulder injury. 

[12th Region Fan]

Rankings are just rankings, but I just don’t view Southwestern as number 3. Close wins over #11 McCreary and #14 Somerset Christian then getting dominated by Mad Central.  However, I do think they are improved from a year ago. Somerset is definitely playing better than people predicted. Right now I think the top 2 are clear. I’m going to guess Pulaski has some kind of Christmas Tournament that is not updated on schedule yet. I don’t remember Fraley ever not playing after Christmas. 

[24Rocks]

1 hour ago, LethalPG said:

Josh Bruner has changed Somerset team.  He’s the last in a long line of Bruners (4 siblings) who have athletic tradition at SHS.  Coming off a strong SR football season, Josh has transitioned nicely since the Rock game shooting the ball great and bringing all the intangibles to the floor.  He missed most of last year with a shoulder injury. 

He has definitely helped them.  Absher seems more comfortable at the 2 than at the point and that has helped.   He’s been shooting the ball pretty well and keeps things under control.

[LethalPG]

34 minutes ago, 12th Region Fan said:

Rankings are just rankings, but I just don’t view Southwestern as number 3. Close wins over #11 McCreary and #14 Somerset Christian then getting dominated by Mad Central.  However, I do think they are improved from a year ago. Somerset is definitely playing better than people predicted. Right now I think the top 2 are clear. I’m going to guess Pulaski has some kind of Christmas Tournament that is not updated on schedule yet. I don’t remember Fraley ever not playing after Christmas. 

They hosted this last week losing to Henry Clay, beating Harlan Ind. and played a team from TN.

[LethalPG]

1 minute ago, LethalPG said:

They hosted this last week losing to Henry Clay, beating Harlan Ind. and played a team from TN.

Sorry misread, I heard they were going to Daytona.  Probably just hasn’t been uploaded yet. 

[24Rocks]

I put more stock in the Massey defensive rankings at this time of year than most anything else.  In the 12th it’s DCA - 10th, Lincoln - 12th, Mercer -20th.  
I’d say those are the top 3, in no particular order.  
 

DCA is the wild card.  New coach and system.  Several young players.  Tremendous size with an experienced point guard.  They’ve been winning despite Boyd being out.  When they’re playing Coach Busick’s defense well it’s really hard to even get off a decent shot, let alone score.  At other times, they give up open threes.  They might develop into a really good team but we’ll see.  

[QueenoftheSouth]

2 hours ago, 24Rocks said:

I put more stock in the Massey defensive rankings at this time of year than most anything else.  In the 12th it’s DCA - 10th, Lincoln - 12th, Mercer -20th.  
I’d say those are the top 3, in no particular order.  
 

DCA is the wild card.  New coach and system.  Several young players.  Tremendous size with an experienced point guard.  They’ve been winning despite Boyd being out.  When they’re playing Coach Busick’s defense well it’s really hard to even get off a decent shot, let alone score.  At other times, they give up open threes.  They might develop into a really good team but we’ll see.  

How are the Massey defensive ratings calculated? What factors go into the calculation? Not saying that these aren’t the top 3 defensive teams, but I believe they all play a very methodical style. Points allowed should only be one factor considered in determining defensive rankings. FG% against, turnovers, etc are much better measures of quality of defense than points allowed.

Anyone know what the factors are?

[QueenoftheSouth]

3 hours ago, 12th Region Fan said:

Rankings are just rankings, but I just don’t view Southwestern as number 3. Close wins over #11 McCreary and #14 Somerset Christian then getting dominated by Mad Central.  However, I do think they are improved from a year ago. Somerset is definitely playing better than people predicted. Right now I think the top 2 are clear. I’m going to guess Pulaski has some kind of Christmas Tournament that is not updated on schedule yet. I don’t remember Fraley ever not playing after Christmas. 

Completely agree about Southwestern. I think the ranking are pretty solid with that one exception.

[LethalPG]

40 minutes ago, QueenoftheSouth said:

Completely agree about Southwestern. I think the ranking are pretty solid with that one exception.

I’m with you.  Rankings this early still don’t mean anything, but to me Somerset has a better resume.  Their losses are to Mercer and West where key guys didn’t play.  SW lost to Metcalfe Co. while Somerset beat the best team in that district Cumberland Co. by 26.  Cumberland Co. has a win against reigning defending 5th region champion, and highly touted Adair Co.  I think SW will be fine though, and all the top 8 will keep improving through peaks and valleys of a long season.

[24Rocks]

31 minutes ago, QueenoftheSouth said:

How are the Massey defensive ratings calculated? What factors go into the calculation? Not saying that these aren’t the top 3 defensive teams, but I believe they all play a very methodical style. Points allowed should only be one factor considered in determining defensive rankings. FG% against, turnovers, etc are much better measures of quality of defense than points allowed.

Anyone know what the factors are?

He doesn’t have access to much more than scores and his rating of strength of schedule.  
 

The metrics you mentioned are useful but better than points allowed?  I don’t think so.  
 

I think the idea that these teams have a methodical style of play can be confusing.  Their defense can be so good the other team simply can’t get good shots.  It’s not so much that they are slowing it down on purpose on offense, they are making it really difficult to get a decent shot.  
 

DCA is 5-1, Lincoln is 6-1, Mercer is 7-1.  I think the Massey defensive rankings translate pretty well to which teams are playing the best right now.

[LethalPG]

I think the 48th is the tightest district collectively.  The SCS and Mccreary scores with SW reflect that.  Wayne Co. is playing solid ball.  The win vs Clay Co. and taking Pulaski Co. to OT is a nice growing step for them.   I could see any four representing the Region.  Where is it held this season?  I’m thinking Wayne Co. 

[24Rocks]

I think Somerset Christian could surprise some people.  They had Somerset on the ropes the other night.  

[QueenoftheSouth]

22 minutes ago, 24Rocks said:

He doesn’t have access to much more than scores and his rating of strength of schedule.  
 

The metrics you mentioned are useful but better than points allowed?  I don’t think so.  
 

I think the idea that these teams have a methodical style of play can be confusing.  Their defense can be so good the other team simply can’t get good shots.  It’s not so much that they are slowing it down on purpose on offense, they are making it really difficult to get a decent shot.  
 

DCA is 5-1, Lincoln is 6-1, Mercer is 7-1.  I think the Massey defensive rankings translate pretty well to which teams are playing the best right now.

Yes, much better than points allowed. Back in the UK Pitino days, he measured defensive efficiency based on a lot of factors including FG% against, steals and deflections. Clearly, they played a pressing, up tempo style and were going to give up a lot more points per game than if they had played a halfcourt style. But they were very good defensively, better than a ton of teams that allowed less points per game. So yes, it has a whole lot to do with style of play.
 

Given the limited stats available on the KHSAA site, effective FG% allowed would be the single best metric to determine quality of defense. Obviously, some way to factor in SOS is  hugely important as well.

Looking at the top 2 teams in the state, St X is allowing 52 PPG and the everage total points scored in their games has been 143. For Great Crossing, those numbers are 69 & 144. For comparison purposes, Mercer is 37 & 93; DCA 47 & 106; and Lincoln 47 & 110. 

I don’t believe that those 12th region teams are better defensively than the top 2 teams. And I do think the total points scored per game is critical for context.

 

[QueenoftheSouth]

23 minutes ago, LethalPG said:

I think the 48th is the tightest district collectively.  The SCS and Mccreary scores with SW reflect that.  Wayne Co. is playing solid ball.  The win vs Clay Co. and taking Pulaski Co. to OT is a nice growing step for them.   I could see any four representing the Region.  Where is it held this season?  I’m thinking Wayne Co. 

I agree. While I’m not sold on Southwest just yet, they have size and talent. And to your point, Wayne is already looking better. And SCC is surprising to the upside.