1. Christian Academy-Louisville at 6A Fern Creek

2. Lexington Catholic vs. 5A #4 Scott County

3. Central vs. 2A WEB DuBois

4. Union County at 5A Greenwood

5. Hart County at 1A #3 Campbellsville

6. Belfry at 4A Letcher County Central

7. Rockcastle County vs. Casey County

8. Bell County vs. 5A Harlan County

9. Mercer County vs. 4A Lincoln County

10. Franklin-Simpson vs. 4A Warren East

I watched some Hart County film for the first time this weekend.

Very surprised with what I saw. That is a really good 3A team. Not sure they have the horses on the LOS or overall depth to knock off a Central or CAL, but their undefeated record is no fluke. Their defense flies to the ball in pursuit and hits very hard. On offense they run their offense very well and have more speed and athleticism then I expected.

They run a totally different offense so not sure the comparison is 100% accurate, but they remind me of that Wayne County team in 2013 that went undefeated and reached the State Finals. Rural teams that kept a veteran core together and really played with a swagger, especially on defense.

2 minutes ago, ATLCat said:

I watched some Hart County film for the first time this weekend.

Very surprised with what I saw. That is a really good 3A team. Not sure they have the horses on the LOS or overall depth to knock off a Central or CAL, but their undefeated record is no fluke. Their defense flies to the ball in pursuit and hits very hard. On offense they run their offense very well and have more speed and athleticism then I expected.

They run a totally different offense so not sure the comparison is 100% accurate, but they remind me of that Wayne County team in 2013 that went undefeated and reached the State Finals. Rural teams that kept a veteran core together and really played with a swagger, especially on defense.

I watched some of the Hart game this past weekend and I was surprised and impressed too ATL.  Like you, I don't think they are good enough to matter in the end but they may get close to the end. 

The way the RPI looks, somebody from spots 4-10 will have a good shot at getting to the title game. If the favorites hold up in the playoffs, the West 1-4 game in round 3 will likely be CAL vs. Central. Then the statewide 1-4 game in the semis would probably be CAL vs. LexCath. That’s assuming the higher ranked teams win their playoff matchups. The tough schedules played by Central and Lexington Catholic put their RPI numbers much lower than you might expect. 

5 minutes ago, theguru said:

I watched some of the Hart game this past weekend and I was surprised and impressed too ATL.  Like you, I don't think they are good enough to matter in the end but they may get close to the end. 

They are a fun team to watch if nothing else. They play like a team who has been together their entire life and you can tell the energy from their coaching staff that they are in the midst of a historic season for a program that has never really been thought of as a threat. The staff has total confidence in them and you can see the players trust each other as well.

They would really benefit by taking that 2nd seed in the RPI. I can see a 3rd Round Home game being a death trap for another team to come into. Additionally, if for some reason Central can re-match with CAL and pull the upset the 2-seed could give them a Semi-Finals game where they host the Yellowjackets in that instance. Central has not exactly been the best team playing on the road outside of Jefferson County so that could also bode well.

How do you guys see the Eastern side of 3 A play out? 

I don't know much about our sister district and am really interested in Bell County at Belfry in the 2nd round.

5 hours ago, JuggsFan82 said:

How do you guys see the Eastern side of 3 A play out? 

I don't know much about our sister district and am really interested in Bell County at Belfry in the 2nd round.

I think it comes down to who can avoid LexCath the longest. I may have slight homerism here, but I don't see Fleming or East Carter beating Lloyd and CalPreps agrees. That said, RPI this week is going to be huge for the Juggs. They are neck and neck with LexCath right now, and while I don't think it will make that much of a difference in Round 3, potentially in round 4 we may see two teams not named Central/CAL/LC playing for a chance at going to State. 

The Bell County/Belfry game also plays a big factor too. Belfry wins and it'll set up most likely LexCath and Lloyd rematch. Bell County wins then it'll depend on how RPI finishes to see who goes to Bell and who goes to Rockcastle

9 hours ago, TheBearsFavoriteHat said:

I think it comes down to who can avoid LexCath the longest. I may have slight homerism here, but I don't see Fleming or East Carter beating Lloyd and CalPreps agrees. That said, RPI this week is going to be huge for the Juggs. They are neck and neck with LexCath right now, and while I don't think it will make that much of a difference in Round 3, potentially in round 4 we may see two teams not named Central/CAL/LC playing for a chance at going to State. 

The Bell County/Belfry game also plays a big factor too. Belfry wins and it'll set up most likely LexCath and Lloyd rematch. Bell County wins then it'll depend on how RPI finishes to see who goes to Bell and who goes to Rockcastle

Obviously I am a Juggs fan, how do you see the potential matchup with Rock or Bell County? All I know is we may be traveling quite a distance if we make a run in the playoffs.

1 hour ago, JuggsFan82 said:

Obviously I am a Juggs fan, how do you see the potential matchup with Rock or Bell County? All I know is we may be traveling quite a distance if we make a run in the playoffs.

I think Lloyd would be the underdog in both. Rock did go to Bell County and win this year, but historically that's a place you'd rather not have to go to. I also don't place as much stock in the Lloyd dismantling by LexCath. Lloyd could not have played a worse game regardless of opponent. I think Lloyd is in for a fight against in round 3/4 against anyone not in the Big 3, but the games are winnable. 

1 hour ago, TheBearsFavoriteHat said:

I think Lloyd would be the underdog in both. Rock did go to Bell County and win this year, but historically that's a place you'd rather not have to go to. I also don't place as much stock in the Lloyd dismantling by LexCath. Lloyd could not have played a worse game regardless of opponent. I think Lloyd is in for a fight against in round 3/4 against anyone not in the Big 3, but the games are winnable. 

Roll Juggs

4 hours ago, TheBearsFavoriteHat said:

I think Lloyd would be the underdog in both. Rock did go to Bell County and win this year, but historically that's a place you'd rather not have to go to. I also don't place as much stock in the Lloyd dismantling by LexCath. Lloyd could not have played a worse game regardless of opponent. I think Lloyd is in for a fight against in round 3/4 against anyone not in the Big 3, but the games are winnable. 

 

2 hours ago, JuggsFan82 said:

Roll Juggs

Assuming Lexington Catholic and Lloyd win through the playoffs and make it to the final four:

If Lexington Catholic beats Scott County, Lloyd will play at CAL in the semi finals.

If Lexington Catholic loses to Scott County, Lloyd will play the #2 seed in the final four (a team from the west, not Lexington Catholic) and Lexington Catholic will play CAL in the semifinals.

I don't see a team on the East with enough defense to stop LexCath.

Bell vs. Belfry is going to be a truly elite 2nd Round matchup. 

Quick Thoughts by Team outside of Lloyd:

LexCath: IMHO, the class of the East. They have a great offense, a capable defense, and have been battle tested against a tough schedule. The concern if I am a LexCath fan is what happens on a cold November night on the road against a team capable of slowing the game down. LexCath has never been the most imposing team at the LOS.

Rockcastle: They have went from wildcard to legitimate threat. Their schedule left a lot to be desired but their win at Bell and their consistency on offense has been super impressive. Very good QB play. The defense is not anything overly special though and that is probably their cause for concern.

Bell: Seemed to be the team in the driver seat to enter undefeated and hosting throughout the playoffs until Rock took them down. They are relying on that 2021 Belfry energy. They have an elite player at RB and they are riding him harder than the Big Dipper at Camden Park. Thomas accounts for about 75% of their starting offense production and Bell will go as far as his back can take them. Much like Rock, Bell also has to have defense concerns. Not only did the Rockets post a 40 spot on them, Bell has allowed 41 & 42 points respectively to Boyd County and Whitley County.

Belfry: Belfry has been doing an extreme home renovation of their roster since the start of the 2022 season. It ended last year with a very disappointing 6-6 season that culminated with a murmur with a running clock to Ashland. The Pirates 2023 campaign seemed to be destined for a similar fate after a loss to GRC in the 2nd Game where the Pirates saw a sizable lead turn to a blowout loss, but Belfry has looked pretty solid since. They put a hurting on Johnson Central, played a very good Southwestern to the wire, and saw a back and forth Pikeville game slip away late. The Southwestern and Pikeville losses also occurred without superstar Sophomore QB Chase Varney who surprisingly gives Belfry a formidable and intentional passing threat. Belfry is seemingly getting healthy entering the post season and will be a dangerous team. The concern for Belfry is DEPTH. All of their losses share a common theme, and even their two wins over Johnson Central and Lawrence County showed Belfry wearing down late. It is a trend at this point.

Lawrence County: This may be the most consistent defense of the Eastern teams. In all three of their losses the defense hasn't give up 20 points (they have allowed some non-offensive scores). The Bulldogs are a scary team because they are built for that "anything can happen on any given night" scenario. They can grind a game to a stop, they have a ton of experience, and play best with a chip on their shoulder. The concern for Lawrence is they simply lack playmakers and fast twitch fibers on offense and have really struggled to find their identity. Their offensive philosophy is the spread but their roster screams three yards and a cloud of dust.

 East Carter: The Raiders have built a nice little program and have elevated to being a perennial threat for District Titles and have had a strong playoff run in recent years. East Carter knocked off Russell and should enter November on a six-game winning streak. They score points, move it on the ground, have a big line, and demonstrate at least a capability to keep you honest in the air. You can argue they looked more impressive against Boyd County than two other teams on this list, but outside of that the concern is "who have they played?". Estill County and Greenup County are questionable losses. Err... bad losses.. and the non-district wins are pretty ho-hum.

Russell: See above.. rinse and repeat except East Carter beat them. Russell played some better teams but also caught some beatdowns against them and their best win is a pretty mid Mason County team. Can Russell use their run/pass balance to catch someone on the wrong night? Maybe.. but the likely scenario is it will be hard to see the Devils playing past the 2nd Round of the playoffs.

On 10/23/2023 at 11:51 AM, ATLCat said:

They are a fun team to watch if nothing else. They play like a team who has been together their entire life and you can tell the energy from their coaching staff that they are in the midst of a historic season for a program that has never really been thought of as a threat. The staff has total confidence in them and you can see the players trust each other as well.

They would really benefit by taking that 2nd seed in the RPI. I can see a 3rd Round Home game being a death trap for another team to come into. Additionally, if for some reason Central can re-match with CAL and pull the upset the 2-seed could give them a Semi-Finals game where they host the Yellowjackets in that instance. Central has not exactly been the best team playing on the road outside of Jefferson County so that could also bode well.

They have played together their entire life. The Junior and Senior classes have all played together since or even before age 7.