Ranking the Field

1. Warren Central
2. Bowling Green
3. Barren County
4. Clinton County
5. Franklin-Simpson
6. Todd County Central
7. Glasgow
8. Cumberland County

Game 1: Clinton County (21-8) vs. Glasgow (14-13)
Series in 2021-22: None
Series in 4th Region Tournament: Glasgow leads 3-1 (last meeting in 2012)

Clinton County got a bit of a boost prior to the 16th District finals, when Cumberland County knocked off Metcalfe County 61-55.  While the Bulldogs would have been no doubt confident regardless of their opponent, Metcalfe County had already beaten them once this season, while Clinton County entered the final with 35 consecutive wins over Cumberland County.  Not since the 2009 district tournament has Clinton County fallen to Cumberland County - and they made it 36 in a row with a 64-54 win, giving them their third district title in the last four years.  Of their three potential opponents, it can be argued that Glasgow was the best draw they could have gotten.  The alternatives were both 20 game winners, one of which was the All "A" champion (a tournament that Clinton County was favored to win), and the other was Bowling Green.  So while region tournament history has not been kind to them in the matchup, it's the best they could have gotten.  Clinton County enters the postseason as winners of 4 of their last 5 this season, and have won five of six matchups with Glasgow, including three in a row.  Glasgow, for their part, just saw a very successful stretch come to an end at the hands of Barren County, with a five game winning streak leading into that game.  Granted, three of those were over Allen County-Scottsville and one of the others was a win over Cumberland County, but wins are wins and momentum is momentum.  Glasgow will be looking to end a stretch of futility in the region tournament.  They are heading back for the first time since 2019, and have fallen in four straight region quarterfinals.  Their last region tournament win? That was over Clinton County, by a 68-57 score in OT in 2012.  Expect a low-scoring affair in this one, as Clinton County allows just under 55 PPG and Glasgow scores just under 59 PPG.  Clinton County's average margin of victory is just 4.3 PPG, so close games are also the norm.  Each team placed a single player on the all-region third team, with Nick Delk (16.5 PPG, 6.1 RPG) representing Clinton County and Sam Bowling (15.9 PPG) representing Glasgow. On paper, this appears to be the game to watch in the opening round of the tournament.  Glasgow has played a difficult schedule, and has shown competitive flashes, but Clinton County is as consistent as they come.   They should win a tight, low-scoring contest, advancing to the semis for the first time since 2020.

Game 2: Franklin-Simpson (18-8) vs. Bowling Green (24-6)
Series in 2021-22: None
Series Overall: Bowling Green leads 96-54 (last meeting in 2021)
Series in 4th Region Tournament: Bowling Green leads 10-1 (last meeting in 2019)

The former district rivals will meet for the 12th time in the region tournament, with Franklin-Simpson seeking their first win in the series since the 1971 4th Region Finals, and snapping a nine game winning streak in the region tournament series between the two.  It's been years since Franklin-Sipson has been able to knock off their rivals, losing 14 in a row to the Purples, dating back to the 09/10 season.  A few of the matchups have been close, but the Purples won by 39 a season ago.  Franklin-Simpson was playing their best ball of the year up to two weeks ago, winning eight in a row and securing the top seed in their district.  Unfortunately, the die for this game was cast back on February 12th, in the game that ended that win treak.  That's when South Warren knocked off the Wildcats 53-52 on a buzzer beater, and Andreyas Miller, a second team all-region selection and the team's leading scorer with 19.1 PPG, broke his hand.  It was doubtful they'd stop the Purples run of 28 consecutive wins in the region quarterfinal and semifinal rounds, but that made it all but certain.  For Bowling Green's part, they'll begin their title defense anew, licking their wounds from a 26 point loss in the district finals, but they know from experience that is not the game they want to win.  Bowling Green has been to eight region finals in a row, and Mr. Basketball frontrunner Turner Buttry is not about to let them stop here.  The Purples will win, and likely win big.

Game 3: Barren County (16-12) vs. Cumberland County (10-15)
Series in 2021-22: Barren County leads 1-0 (69-57 W on 2/11/22)
Series in 4th Region Tournament: Barren County leads 3-1 (last meeting in 1999)

A common regular season matchup sees an uncommon meeting in the postseason as the Trojans take on the Panthers.  Barren County and Cumberland County meet almost every year, and during the Riherds scoreboard era Barren County has only lost twice to Cumberland County.  Their game a few weeks ago was competitive, with the Trojans putting three in double figures led by Aden Nyekan's 27 points leading all scorers, narrowly out dueling fellow first team all-region selection Ty Seay, who poured in 26 points.  The Trojans limped into the finish line somewhat, losing four games out of six before starting a three game win streak with a victory at home over Clinton County and notching two wins in the 15th District tournament.  They are led by the aforementioned Nyekan, whose 17.3 PPG lead the team, joined by Mason Griggs who averages 11.9 PPG.  The team is one of the poorest perimeter shooting teams in the field, making just over 25% of their shots from outside, and that typically doesn't improve when the setting shifts to Diddle Arena.  Look for them to try to get inside for their scoring.  They'll look to advance to the region semifinals for a second consecutive year.  Unlike Nyekan, Ty Seay doesn't have a Robin to his Batman.  Ty Seay is one of the leading scorers in the state with 28.2 PPG, but no one else on the team averages in double figures.  Seay averages more than half of the 55 PPG Cumberland County scores.  The district semifinal win over Metcalfe County was a bit of a surprise, and is their only win in the last four games.  The Panthers bring the only losing record into the region tournament, and are seeking their first win at region since 1990.  Recent and not-recent history are not on their side.  Barren County advances by 10-15 points.

Game 4: Warren Central (23-3) vs. Todd County Central (23-8)
Series in 2021-22: None
Series Overall: Warren Central leads 17-12 (last meeting in 2002)
Series in 4th Region Tournament: Warren Central leads 2-0 (last meeting in 2002)

This matchup takes us back to the roots of the Warren Central dynasty - the last time these two squared off was in the 2002 4th Region Finals, where Warren Central's 70-64 victory gave them the first of what would be six consecutive region titles, eight in ten years, and 12 titles in this century.  No player on either team was alive the last time these two squared off, so it would be fair to say they're unfamiliar with each other.  Warren Central rides in on an 11 game winning streak, their longest since winning 12 in a row in 2020, and fresh off of the 1,000th win in the history of the program.  That came in a 68-42 blowout of rival Bowling Green to give Central their first district title in 9 years.  They were rewarded with probably the worst team they could have drawn, as Todd Central is one of four 20-win teams in the field.  Central will remain confident, as they are averaging an 18.5 PPG margin of victory, and haven't lost to anyone in Kentucky on a home or neutral court.  Central placed three players on all-region teams, with Jaiden Lawrence slotting on the first team, Chappelle Whitney on the second team, and Omari Glover on the third team.  No team is as balanced as the Dragons, who have four averaging in double figures and another (Kade Unseld) just below.  They score a lot, the give up very little, and they ahve the best win percentage in the region.  They're favorites.  Todd County Central is certain to be disappointed to be in this position, as three of their losses were to Franklin-Simpson, and two of those were by a combined three points.  They had the ball multiple times against Franklin in the district final with a chance to tie the game, but could not get a shot to drop, and their final chance was lost on an over and back call.  Still, there's no way to frame their season as anything less than a huge success, as they returned to the 20 win plateau by winning more games than the last few years combined.  They won the All "A" Region title and advanced to the quarterfinals of the tournament.  They only score 55 PPG, with Jamison Glass leading with 12.9 PPG and Preston Moore also averaging in double figures with 10.9 PPG.  They don't shoot well from outside, making only 28% of their threes, which will likely pose a problem for them against the long and athletic Dragons.  It's hard to see this game as anything more than a blowout, and Central should win by 25-30 points.  

Quick predictions for later rounds:
Semifinal 1: Bowling Green over Clinton County by 18
Semifinal 2: Warren Central over Barren County by 14
Finals: Warren Central over Bowling Green by 10

It would be a surprise if we didn't have the 11th region final meeting between Warren Central and Bowling Green since the turn of the century.  Even though Warren Central is the tournament favorite, it would be more shocking for the Purples to miss, given they haven't failed to make the finals of a region tournament they made since 2004 - that's 14 straight tournaments.  Bowling Green got the better of Warren Central in three straight finals meetings in 2012, 2014, and 2015, but outside of that, the Dragons have always emerged victorious.  While a potential fourth matchup would not be in Dragon Gym, it's hard to forget the 22 and 26 point thrashings Central dealt to them there.  Adjustments will undoubtedly be made, but we've reached the "have to see it" portion of the ride with that matchup.  Warren Central is your likely region champion, but it almost certainly will be a 14th District team for the 21st consecutive year.

This is top shelf stuff @DragonFire, and I mean Pappy Van Winkle level! Love the team histories you bring to the table.

Appreciate all the hard work you've put in this season keeping us up to speed on the 4th Region. 

Excellent work on the tournament breakdown DragonFire! 
 

I picked Warren Central on my local bracket contest. 

Hope WC puts a clock runner on the Rebels to pay them back on what they did to Dawson?