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Category 3 Enhanced Risk for Severe Storms on Saturday


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This is a new thread for Saturday. This severe weather situation is getting worse. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the category 2 Slight Risk Area to include most of Kentucky. What is concerning to me is that portions of southern Kentucky are now in a category 3 Enhanced Risk Area. The Enhanced Risk Area includes Bowling Green, Murray, Hopkinsville, Glasgow, Somerset, London, and Corbin.

 

Scattered thunderstorms will be ongoing around 7 am/ 6 central EST along a surface frontal boundary extending from southeast Oklahoma into Kentucky. As a trough tracks along the north of the boundary, it is likely to help organize one or more fast-moving bowing structures capable of damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes. These tornadoes could form quickly and without much notice.  I will post a more detailed update later today. Everyone should be going over their emergency action plan. Also, have a way to get severe weather warnings if one is issued in your area.

 

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I'm getting concerned for those in the cat 3 Enhanced Risk Area. The tornado threat is getting worse. If a tornado forms, it could be strong and long-tracked. 

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No real change in the forecast for tomorrow. I'm concerned about the areas that will see some sun tomorrow. This will add fuel to the fire for the severe storms. I expect the category 3 Enhanced Risk Area to be expanded tomorrow. Eastern Kentucky may have to be added.

 

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Just got home from church service and looked over the very latest model data. I'm concerned about the area around Bowling Green. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the threat level for portions of southcentral Kentucky is raised to a category 4 Moderate Risk area in the morning. I will post a detailed update in the morning. 

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The severe weather threat for this afternoon is still there. The threat for this afternoon is mainly south of the Bluegrass Parkway. All severe weather threats will be possible, including pockets of hail damaging straight-line winds, Isolated tornadoes, flash flooding, and river flooding. The usual map I use to show where the categorical areas for severe weather haven't been updated this morning so I'm using the maps from the Storm Prediction Center. 

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The tornado map is showing a 10% chance for portions of southern Kentucky that's the part in the category 3 Enhance Risk Area. Mainly around the Bowling Green area. The portion in the black hatched area has a good chance of seeing strong long tracked tornadoes. Everyone can see that the area is not too far from Kentucky. So I'm watching that area closely to see if it also will include Kentucky later today.

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This map shows the possibility of damaging winds. 

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And the last one is for the chance of hail. 

 

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I will be back to update everyone later this morning.

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The Enhanced Risk Area has been scaled back some for portions of southern Kentucky. The rain that persisted through the early morning hours has moved the boundary for the possible severe weather a little further south. At present, I don't think the boundary will move back north. Still, there will be the potential for embedded supercell storms within a broken band near the front, this afternoon/evening. These possible storms could produce tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail. The prospects for a strong tornado or two will likely depend on the prefrontal supercell development which is uncertain. 

Check back for the afternoon update. 

 

 

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51 minutes ago, DragonFire said:

Hoping that holds. I’ve been worried about this for 24 hours. 

A new tornado watch has just been issued for the area I was the most concerned about.

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One of my concerns was the breaks in the clouds. It appears to be happening in the new tornado watch area and eastern Kentucky. This could add fuel to the fire for the storms this afternoon.

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According to the very latest NAM data, the threat is increasing once again for southcentral Kentucky. A tornado warning was issued for the Mammoth Cave area.

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20 minutes ago, nWo said:

Damage in Bowling Green on Cave Mill Rd. 

 

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I never heard of anyone sighting a funnel cloud, but that damage at the furniture store... that can't be just straight line winds can it?

There's other downed trees in the area, another place I saw where the brick facade was knocked off an apartment building.

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1 minute ago, DragonFire said:

I never heard of anyone sighting a funnel cloud, but that damage at the furniture store... that can't be just straight line winds can it?

There's other downed trees in the area, another place I saw where the brick facade was knocked off an apartment building.

I've been watching the WBKO online feed and they saw a funnel cloud but it didn't touch down. The damage is probably from straight-line winds.

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