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North Oldham at Nelson County Predictions/Updates


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Who:   North Oldham (3-6) at Nelson County (3-6)

Where:   Nelson County HS, Bardstown, KY

When:  Friday, 10/29/21  kickoff 7:30 pm

Broadcast:   Free live high definition video on www.pegasussportsky.com, beginning at 7:00 PM ET

Two rebuilding teams collide to wrap up the regular season in Bardstown.

North Oldham, under first-year head coach Jamie Brown, will head to the 4A playoffs next week - a tough road game against Top 10 Franklin County.   For Nelson County, this game will end their season.

Who wins?

Live coverage on www.pegasussportsky.com   

I'll add a preview tonight....

CM

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  • theguru changed the title to North Oldham at Nelson County Predictions/Updates

NORTH OLDHAM - very impressive rebuilding effort this year from Jamey Brown (first year head coach) and his team.    Frankly, only a brutal district (includes class 4A #5 Franklin County and #6 Central) and some critical injuries have kept this from being even more impressive.    Given more luck in the medical tent and a slightly more user-friendly district, and this North team might be more like 5-4 heading into the final regular season game.

As it is, though, you play the hand you're dealt.    North lost their starting QB in week 3, and their #2 QB five weeks later.    Their #3 QB - versatile do-everything Ben Becerra - struggled last week in his first start against Central, hitting only 7 of 28 passes with 3 picks - but he did throw for one TD, and ran for 79 yards on 6 carries (with another TD).   He narrowly missed on a second TD toss at the end of the first half.

The North defense has been steady all year, and several Mustangs have ranked among the 4A defensive leaders.    As of this week, linebacker Michael Davis ranks #4 in class 4A with 95 total tackles (11.9/game), despite missing last week's game with an injury.  (He had previously be #1 in class 4A).   DE Tyler Vance is tied for fifth in sacks with 7 on the season, and Liam Hutson leads Kentucky with 8 interceptions on the year - including a 4A-best 3 pick sixes.    Noah Leber is tied for 2nd in Class 4A with 3 fumble recoveries.

But injuries have plagued the team.   Besides the issues at QB, Bryce Grady, one of the DL stalwarts, and #2 on the team with 8.5 TFL, has been out since game 7, and leading tackler Michael Davis missed last week.     With them on the field, the North is defense is immeasurably more daunting.

North actually played Central toe-to-toe for the first quarter and a half last week, leading 13-6 midway through the second period.

It's been offensively where the Mustangs have struggled, averaging less than 12 points per game.    Last week showed a definite improvement, however, as the Mustangs gained a season-high 231 total yards, including 131 on the ground.    The leading rusher, Mack Pyle, has just 181 yards in nine games, but Becerra, playing QB, and speedy WR Blake Wetzel rushed for 79 yards and 51 yards respectively, on just 13 carries total to show new energy in that department.    If Becerra - who was the starting running back at North two years ago - and Wetzel can continue to have success on the ground, and the North defense plays its normal game, North Oldham has a strong chance to win this game.

NELSON COUNTY has not been able to provide Pegasus with any info yet, but the Cardinals also come into the game at 3-6.   Unlike the Mustangs, however, the Cardinals have no post-season coming, so this is their final game of the season.   Playing in front of the home crowd, the emotional edge goes to the Cardinals, who should be highly motivated.

Like North, Nelson comes in riding a three-game losing streak.    

Nelson's problem is the reverse of North's.   Nelson has shown the ability to score at times; the Cardinals hung 35 on Washington County in a losing cause, scored 44 against Marion County, and draped 62 points all over Caverna.     It's been the defense that has struggled; the Nelson "D" has given up over 30 points in every game except one this year (they held Caverna to 14).   

Four different running backs have rushed for over 200 yards this year, with Trevor Beam leading the way with 339 yards and 5 TDs.   Paul Briney has thrown for 687 yards and 6 TDs, while throwing 7 picks.   Briney has also rushed for just over 200 yards.   

Evan Hicks (27 receptions, 311 yards, 2 TDs) has caught over half of the passes Briney (49 of 100 passing) has completed.   Zach Moore has 14 catches; nobody else has more than 3.

Hicks is also the man to watch on defense, where he leads the way with 71 tackles.

It's an interesting matchup of strength on strength and weakness on weakness.

Pegasus goes on-air at 7:15 pm ET at www.pegasussportsky.com

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I know they still aren't very good... but Nelson County has also done a really good job of rebuilding this year. Coach Stockdale has got Nelson County on the right path for a slow rebuild and I think if they keep working, they could become a pretty competitive team here in the next couple of years. I take North Oldham by 14 in this one. 

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Nelson has a very, very young program.....Coach Stockdale has a lot to look forward to.     This game could be a very good luck ahead at two up-and-coming programs.

Forget the records; this should be a very entertaining game.

www.pegasussportsky.com    live coverage begins at 7:15 pm.

CM

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