Class 3A RPI Tracking

[gchs_uk9]

We are two weeks away from the start of postseason in Class 3A so lets take a minute and look at the current RPI situation and how it could affect playoff brackets.

First, six of the current top seven are from the western half of the state. That could make for some very interesting third round matchups. However, outside of the top three, perhaps only two more top ten teams are considered favorites to make it to the quarterfinals (Bell County; Ashland or Russell).

If the season ended today and the district favorites all advanced to the quarterfinals, the bracket would look like this for the western half:

• Union County (RPI 4; District 1) at Glasgow (RPI 1; District 2)
• Bardstown (RPI 3; District 3) at Christian Academy-Louisville (RPI 2; District 4)

For the eastern half, the draw would be as follows:

• Fleming County (RPI 21; District 6) at Bell County (RPI 8; District 5)
• Belfry (RPI 14; District 8] at Ashland/Russell win (RPIs 9/10; District 7)

As you can see, the western half rates much higher than the east. That is advantageous to those western schools, who at this moment would all be assured of hosting semifinal games if they were to win their respective quarterfinal matchups.

How might the RPI change over the course of the next few weeks? Lets look at the current district favorites based on current RPI position:

•  Glasgow (District 2; .70721): Glasgow should be the favorite against both Casey County and 4A Franklin-Simpson. A win over Franklin-Simpson would provide some boost but the Scotties are hanging on to first by a thread.
• Christian Academy-Louisville (District 4; .70236): CAL should handle Western Hills with ease. A win over 6A Eastern would give the Centurions some bonus points in the RPI, perhaps enough to get into the top spot. CAL should be favored in both matchups.
• Bardstown (District 3; .66930): Adding a game with 5A Fairdale this week should provide a boost to the Tigers, provided they win. A home finale with East Jessamine is another opportunity for points against a 5A school. I don't know if Bardstown can catch the two in front of them, but catching one means a home game in the third round.
• Union County (District 1; .63296): Union County squeaked by Paducah Tilghman last week so we can't assume they'll be in this position when the quarterfinals start. A road trip to Trigg County and a home game with 4A Calloway County won't do much to help boost the Braves out of fourth. If Tilghman is in the quarterfinals, they're all but guaranteed to be the fourth place team in the western half.
• Bell County (District 5; .59808): Bell County has played solid football all season but could have their hands full at Estill County this week. A home game against 4A Harlan County will help. The Bobcats are only a hundredth of a point ahead of Ashland and Russell so finishing first in the east might be tough. Finishing second and getting a home game with Belfry would be extremely important.
• Ashland/Russell (District 7; .58928/.58612): I'm linking these two because of how close their game was last week. Ashland only has one game remaining, a district matchup with Greenup County this week. There aren't many points available in that game. Russell has a tough district game at East Carter, and a Russell loss would put East Carter into a three-way tie and would likely clinch home field for the Raiders in the first two rounds. Russell hosts 2A West Carter in the finale.
• Belfry (District 8; .53322): Belfry's win over Lawrence County cemented the Pirates as District 8 favorites. Belfry has a road trip at Pike County Central and a home game with 4A power Johnson Central. Two wins would certainly boost the RPI, but knocking off Johnson Central seems like a bridge too far. Belfry appears set to travel for Round Three.
• Fleming County (District 6; .47534): Fleming County is the number one seed in District 6 but barely defeated Mason County two weeks ago. Both Fleming and Mason are the class of this district but neither has the numbers to avoid a third round road trip to the best remaining club in the east.

[Zeleke3]

Thanks for taking the time to provide the above information.  Crazy how the top half has so many teams ranked in the top 7.  A tough road for each team starting in the quarter finals.  The top 3 are pretty evenly matched.  I feel the rankings will be different after next week.  It will certainly be an advantage to be ranked 1-2 to get the home field advantage.  Obviously being the top seed will be huge.  Look forward to seeing how it all plays out.

[Tkinslow]

I don’t think it really matters so much who’s number 1 between Glasgow and Cal both would host the semis. Now if you are one of those people that want to pick the easiest route you might would rather play Union/PT rather than Bardstown in the third round but I believe to be the best you have to beat the best. I don’t think Bardstown can catch either team but if they did because they played to weak 5A schools the last weeks of the season that would kind of prove the RPI has flaws because Glasgow and Cal have played far better schedules this year that Bardstown has.

[gchs_uk9]

54 minutes ago, Tkinslow said:

I don’t think Bardstown can catch either team but if they did because they played to weak 5A schools the last weeks of the season that would kind of prove the RPI has flaws because Glasgow and Cal have played far better schedules this year that Bardstown has.

Calpreps shows CAL with the strongest schedule of the three, then Glasgow, then Bardstown a distant third.

That said, schedules for Bardstown and Glasgow look a little different today than when they were made a couple of years ago. Glasgow has benefitted from improved Russellville, Adair County, and Woodford County teams. Had those teams been on the schedule a couple of years ago they would have brought down the numbers for Glasgow.

On the flip side, Bardstown played John Hardin, Franklin-Simpson, and Elizabethtown, all teams that have competed for state championships in the not-too-distant past but are not at their highest point this season. Had those teams been on the schedule a couple of years ago they would have brought up the numbers for Bardstown.

Bottom line, scheduling and strength of schedule is something of a guessing game when it has to be done so far in advance.

[Tkinslow]

3 hours ago, gchs_uk9 said:

Calpreps shows CAL with the strongest schedule of the three, then Glasgow, then Bardstown a distant third.

That said, schedules for Bardstown and Glasgow look a little different today than when they were made a couple of years ago. Glasgow has benefitted from improved Russellville, Adair County, and Woodford County teams. Had those teams been on the schedule a couple of years ago they would have brought down the numbers for Glasgow.

On the flip side, Bardstown played John Hardin, Franklin-Simpson, and Elizabethtown, all teams that have competed for state championships in the not-too-distant past but are not at their highest point this season. Had those teams been on the schedule a couple of years ago they would have brought up the numbers for Bardstown.

Bottom line, scheduling and strength of schedule is something of a guessing game when it has to be done so far in advance.

I’m not arguing that it probably was an accident that Glasgow ended up having a tougher schedule this I was stating that they did.

[gchs_uk9]

1 hour ago, Tkinslow said:

I’m not arguing that it probably was an accident that Glasgow ended up having a tougher schedule this I was stating that they did.

I know, didn’t mean to imply that. Sorry if it came across that way. 👍🏻

[Tkinslow]

1 hour ago, gchs_uk9 said:

I know, didn’t mean to imply that. Sorry if it came across that way. 👍🏻

No problems.

[Hearsay]

Solid analysis, gchs, and thank you. I think if Bardstown beats the two 5A teams AND those two teams, plus maybe FS, John Hardin, etc. win their last game, it will be enough to boost Bardstown to #2 over Glasgow. I think CAL will be #1 after they beat Eastern.

As for SOS, all a team can do is play the ball where it lies.

[Tkinslow]

Franklin Simpson ain’t winning their last game.

[gchs_uk9]

1 hour ago, Tkinslow said:

Franklin Simpson ain’t winning their last game.

If they do it makes the whole thread null and void, right?!