North Oldham vs. Oldham County Predictions/Updates

[ColonelMike]

North Oldham (10-8) travels to Oldham County (16-2) Friday 1/24/2020 for a key 29th district seeding game.

 

Game time: Immediately follows the girls' matchup; approximately 7:45 pm ET

 

Broadcast time: Live video coverage on The Pegasus Sports Network - PSN approximately 7:40 pm ET

 

The Mustangs come in riding a two-game winning streak, their first back-to-back victories since before Christmas. The team is clearly beginning to re-configure itself in the "post-Justin Powell" era, with Tyler Higdon a threat for a double-double each night, Dallas Roberts hitting from the outside, and sophomore "Rico" Carr-Cole emerging as one of the team's top-scorers off the bench.

 

Freshman Ian Higdon has moved into a starting role, giving the Mustangs a solid 1-2 punch on the inside; Thomas Ashton has moved into Powell's former role as the starting point guard and is rapidly improving both as a ballhandler and as a shooter.

 

North comes into the contest as the #3 shooting team in the region at just over 50% from the floor. The Mustangs hit over 38% beyond the arc, and have several players who can hit the three. At the line, North is improving - but their season percentage sits at just over 61%.

 

Oldham County comes in with a 16-2 mark, and winners of 7 straight games - the longest current winning streak in the 8th region. The Colonels feature a multi-pronged attack; in the last five games, Oldham has had 5 different leading scorers, one of whom is a substitute.

 

Oldham is also one of the better shooting teams in the region, hitting at about 49% from the floor and over 38% from beyond the arc. Deaton Oak, in particular, is not only one of the Colonels' top perimeter shooters, he's one of the top outside shooters in the region.

 

If it's a free throw shooting contest, Oldham would likely have the advantage; the Colonels are hitting 70.5% from the line as a team. Nobody who has taken more than 14 free throw attempts on the season is shooting less than 68%; three of the players who have shot more than 14 attempts are hitting over 80%.

 

Individually, the inside matchup between Oldham's Xander Wagner-Rose (10 ppg / 6.6 rebounds) and North's Tyler Higdon (15.3 ppg / 8.4 rebounds) will be a good one, featuring two of the more athletic big men in the region.

 

Defensively, it will be interesting to see which team fares better at closing out on the three-point shooters; Oldham had significant success doing so against South Oldham last week, limiting the Dragons to just 5 of 19 shooting from beyond the arc.

 

North, on the other hand, is coming off a game in which they shredded the state's number one scoring defense, as the Mustangs defeated Anderson County, 74-41, on Tuesday.

 

DISTRICT 29 IMPORTANCE: The game is critical to both teams in terms of the district seeding. If Oldham wins, the Colonels will finish 3-0 in district seeding games and will get the #1 seed, meaning North Oldham and South Oldham would have to play in a semi-final (elimination) game, regardless of the outcome of the North vs. South game next week.

 

If North wins, then the seeding battle won't be settled until North plays South in Goshen next Friday, 1/31/2020. If the Mustangs win, that would leave the district standings at North Oldham 2-0, Oldham County 2-1, South Oldham 1-1, Trimble County 0-3. North could win the #1 seed by defeating South. A South win over North would send the #1 seed determination to a tiebreaker, which is point differential. (Note: In determining point differential, any game decided by over 25 points is calculated as a 25 point game.)

 

SERIES

 

Oldham County leads the all-time series, 17-8, and the Colonels have won the last 7 matchups. North's last victory in the series came on 1/16/2015 in a 54-51 victory at North.

 

At home in Buckner, Oldham holds a 5-3 advantage all-time.

 

In regular season games, Oldham leads the series 9-5; the two teams have met 11 times in the district tournament, with Oldham holding an 8-3 advantage.

 

LAST MEETING: Oldham won, 59-53, last season in the first round of the District 29 tournament, played at South Oldham.

 

CM

[ColonelMike]

Pegasus Sports will be broadcasting the game - as well as the girls' game before it. The pregame show before the girls' game will start at 5:30 pm ET; the boys' broadcast will start about 10 minutes after the girls' broadcast ends. Past experience says we should be on the air for the boys' game about 7:40 pm ET.

 

Two weeks ago, I'm not sure North was ready for this game, as they worked to find the new on-court "recipe" without Powell. But the last couple of weeks have shown a Mustang team that seems to be finding their groove again.

 

Oldham is playing tremendous basketball right now. Great opportunity for the Colonels to claim a quality win and to seize the district #1 seed.

 

This should be a great game to watch. I'll post updates as I can, but it's always super-hectic at these matchups.....

 

CM

[ColonelMike]

Interesting bit of trivia....these two teams first played at the end of the 2004-5 basketball season, when Oldham County won, 71-63, in the first round of the 31st district tournament at Trimble County.

 

North dominated the series in the early going, however, winning 6 of the first 9 games between the two schools, including 5 in a row from 1/17/2008 to to 2/24/2010.

 

Since that game, Oldham has won 14 of the last 16 contests.

[ConverseAllStar]

It seems like most Oldham County - North Oldham games involve North Oldham keeping it close for a half or so before OC's depth takes over and they pull away for the victory.

 

ColonelMike, you may want to check my memory/stats on this one, but I bet North Oldham returns 4 starters from last year's district game and Oldham County returns 1 (Slone).

[ColonelMike]

You are correct.

 

North returns Tyler Higdon, Dallas Roberts, Luke Barry, and Thomas Ashton, who all started in last year's first round district tournament loss to Oldham County. Roberts (16 points) and Higdon (14) led North in scoring that night.

 

Five players from North played in last year's district game who are on this year's team. .

 

Oldham returns only one starter from that team, Tyler Slone, however, two of the three leading scorers in that game for Oldham came off the bench that night and are starters this year. Sam Campbell had 14 to lead OC and Deaton Oak had 12.

 

Four players who played in last year's game for Oldham County return on this year's team.

 

Another way of looking at it is that North Oldham has 37 points returning from last year's game; Oldham County has 30 points returning.

[ColonelMike]

to answer everyone's question....no word from Goshen as to whether or not Justin Powell might play in this game.

 

That seems to be the "question of the year" in the 8th....

[ColonelMike]

Only 9 people have voted? Wow. :lol2:

[ConverseAllStar]

David Kim of the Courier-Journal is reporting that Justin Powell had surgery this morning and is out for the season.

[4 Quarters]

OC in this one.

[4 Quarters]

David Kim of the Courier-Journal is reporting that Justin Powell had surgery this morning and is out for the season.

 

Oldham County and S. Oldham have to be breathing easier now.

[ColonelMike]

Pegasus is temporarily off the air. Back on ASAP.

 

2:43 left 1Q Oldham Co 13-4

[ColonelMike]

end of 1Q

 

OC 23

NO 11

[ColonelMike]

on the air

 

39-25 OC

[ColonelMike]

HALF

 

Oldham Co 42

North Oldham 28

 

Pegasus is on the air The Pegasus Sports Network - PSN

 

Sorry for the inconvenience!

[ColonelMike]

Sam Campbell hits a 12 foot baseline jumper at the buzzer to end the third.

 

Oldham Co 63

North Oldham 44