Last week when I looked ahead at the schedule for week 9, I found the slate to be rather underwhelming, and it made it difficult to designate a game of the week. That pretty much bore out. There were nine games featuring top 10 teams – none against another ranked team – and those games were won by an average of 28.89 points, with all but one being decided by 15+ points. But two did stand out in their surprisingly close margins given what was expected, and it seems no coincidence that the winning team in each are going to play this week – perhaps each got caught peeking.

 

#5 Corbin entered their road matchup with Lincoln County at 4-2, prohibitive favorites against a Patriot team that was 3-4 and had just endured a 34 point beatdown by Wayne County. I personally saw the game as a measuring stick to give us a read on what was anticipated to be a district title game on October 25th between Corbin and Wayne County. And while that ultimately would have still been a title game even if Corbin had lost, it would have lost a bit of its suspense and luster. Lincoln County employed long drives and ball control all night long to aid them in an upset effort, grabbing leads at 7-0 and 14-7 before falling behind 20-14 at the half. Clayton Davis was a star on the night for Lincoln County, hauling in eight passes for 134 yards and two scores from the arm of Nick Harris, the second of which staked the Patriots to a 21-20 lead midway through the third quarter. Jake Steely would provide the answer for Corbin on an 80 yard rushing score to give the Redhounds a 26-21 lead at the end of the third, a score that would stand up for the final. Corbin found great difficulty staying on the field in the second half, with that Steely run proving to be their only play run in the third quarter, and turnovers handing Lincoln County multiple chances to take the lead. But the fourth quarter would be defined by Corbin’s defense, forcing a turnover on downs, a punt, and an interception to seal the 26-21 victory. Cameron Combs was 7/7 for 91 yards and a touchdown pass in the win for Corbin, while the team averaged 10 yards per carry in accruing 224 yards on the ground.

 

Meanwhile, 1-6 Knox Central was visiting #6 Wayne County, where the Cardinals were seeking their fifth straight win. This game saw the underdog jump out fast as well, as Knox Central went up 7-0 less than one minute into the game. Wayne County game right back with a 62 yard drive to tie the game at 7 all two minutes in. And the back and forth tone was set. It was 14-7 Knox Central after one, and 21-14 Knox at the half with the Panthers never trailing. After Braedon Sloan tied the game on a kickoff return to open the half, Knox Central again answered, jumping out to a 28-21 lead just over three minutes into the third. But that was to be their swan song, as the dam finally broke. Wayne County would score twice more in the third to take a 35-28 lead, and a scoop and score by Carson Simpson on a punt block made it 42-28 seconds into the fourth. The teams would trade scores after that for a 49-34 final. Braedon Sloan was everything for the Cardinals in the game, with 25 rushes for 249 yards and five touchdowns in addition to the kickoff return, adding four catches for 58 yards. Knox Central rang up 420 yards of offense, including 249 yards passing from the arm of Brady Worley. Seth Huff added three touchdowns on 155 yards rushing.

 

District Breakdown

 

We’re entering the last week of the district slate, so let’s recap where the district races stand and the implications of this week:

 

District 1 – I went into much greater detail about this last week - http://bluegrasspreps.com/ky-football-high/class-4a-notebook-382669.html – and nothing has changed. Madisonville and Logan County both took care of business while Hopkinsville was on a bye. For Madisonville, their district run is over. Hopkinsville needs only beat Hopkins County Central and Logan County needs only beat Calloway County to trigger the three-way tie. Logan County currently has 14 tiebreaker points and realistically could get as many as 19 without beating South Warren. Madisonville and Hopkinsville both have 10 points. Madisonville could get as high as 16 realistically without beating Mayfield (which would probably take them as high as 21). Hopkinsville probably can’t get higher than 13 based on what they have currently, and so their game against Paducah to end the year is critical, which would likely add 7 to their total to take them to 20. It’s probably Logan County’s to lose based on potential results. I think Hopkinsville would be my greater dark horse because I find them more likely to be able to beat Paducah to make things interesting. Calloway County has already locked up the 4 seed via a win over Hopkins County Central two weeks ago. Prediction – 1 – Logan County, 2 – Madisonville-North Hopkins, 3 – Hopkinsville, 4 – Calloway County

 

District 2 – It was anticipated that Franklin-Simpson and Warren East would be squaring off in an undefeated in-district showdown for #1 this week, but Allen County-Scottsville threw a wrench into the works with a 27-10 stunner at East on Friday. So that means with a win, Franklin-Simpson clinches #1 (which was going to be true anyway). If Franklin-Simpson and AC/S both win, it’s a clean 1-2-3-4 with Franklin, AC/S, East, and Russell County going in that order. Warren East can clinch #1 with a win and an Allen County-Scottsville loss to Russell County, winning a head to head tiebreak with Franklin-Simpson. If Warren East and AC/S both win, it will create a three way tie at the top of the district. In that scenario, Warren East has the others dominated. Wins in the tiebreak don’t count, and outside of the district, East has beaten Russellville (Franklin’s only non-district win currently) as well as Edmonson County, who add three wins with potential for another. They also have a winnable game with Daviess County (3 wins currently) to close the year. Franklin-Simpson closes with Glasgow – a certain loss. AC/S has no current non-district wins (their total is actually currently zero as Warren Central has not won any games), but could add Monroe County’s 4 or 5 wins at the end of the year. In that grouping, East likely wins #1, AC/S has realistic control of their destiny for #2, and Franklin-Simpson would be best served by just winning this week to clinch. If Franklin-Simpson and Russell County both win, it will create a three-way tie for second-place. Russell County has quantity there, but their four out of district wins amount to only four points – shy of East’s current five – and their best hope will be an East loss to Daviess County and a win over LaRue County (four current wins) in their season closer, where they will not be favored. AC/S once again would need to beat Monroe to have any hope, and in this scenario, there’s a real possibility that it would be East at the 2, Russell County the 3, and AC/S falling all the way to the 4. Warren Central is already eliminated from the postseason. Prediction – 1 – Franklin-Simpson, 2 – Allen County-Scottsville, 3 – Warren East, 4 – Russell County

 

District 3 – This one is crystal clear. Moore has already clinched the top seed in the district, sitting at 3-0 with wins over John Hardin and Spencer County, who meet this Friday and each sit at 2-1 in district play. The winner of that game will be the 2 seed, the loser is the three seed. They’ll meet in the playoffs, with the host the only thing up for grabs here. Valley is locked into the fourth seed with a 1-3 record in the district, clinching the playoffs ultimately via a 12-6 win over Marion County on October 3rd. Marion County plays Moore this week, but even the unlikeliest of wins there would push them only into a tie for fourth, where they’d lose the head to head tiebreaker. Prediction – 1 – Moore, 2 – John Hardin, 3 – Spencer County, 4 – Valley

 

District 4 – Another fairly clear one. Central hosts Franklin County this week to decide the top seed. Each team is 3-0 in district play currently. The winner is the #1 seed, the loser the #2 seed. Waggener hosts Shelby County on the same night, with each sitting at 1-2 in district play. The winner of that game will be the #3 seed, the loser the #4 seed. North Oldham has already been eliminated, winless in district play. Prediction – 1 – Franklin County, 2 – Central, 3 – Waggener, 4 – Shelby County

 

District 5 – Realistically, we all know Boyle County is going to be the #1 seed. They do have to make that official with a home win over Bourbon County this week. If Bourbon County were to win that game, they could clinch the #1 seed via head to head tiebreaker if Lexington Catholic were to lose to Anderson County as well. If Boyle County and Lexington Catholic both win, Boyle County is the #1, LexCath the #2, Bourbon County the #3, and Anderson County the #4. If Boyle County and Anderson County both win, it will create a three way tie for second, and if Bourbon County and Lexington Catholic both win, it will create a three way tie for first. I could go into the scenarios here, but I’m going to be blunt – the possibility is so remote that it doesn’t even make sense to discuss. It’s going to be Boyle County and Lexington Catholic winning this week. Prediction – 1 – Boyle County, 2 - Lexington Catholic, 3 – Bourbon County, 4 – Anderson County

 

District 6 – The least heralded and visible of the eastern districts, the top seed in the district will be decided when Scott hosts Holmes this week. Both enter the game at 3-0 in the district, though the margin of victory in their games against the rest of the district strongly suggests Scott will take the #1 seed and Holmes the 2. Rowan County can clinch the #3 seed with a win at Boyd County this week, which would officially put Boyd County out of the playoffs and push Harrison County to the 4 seed. If Boyd County can pull the upset, then it will create a three way tie for third place. Each team would currently have four points in the tiebreaker system, with Rowan County perhaps having the inside track thanks to a winnable game against Montgomery County in their season finale to add some points. Boyd County would be basically all-in on Bath County picking up additional wins, which would seem to make them the most likely to be on the outside looking in. Prediction – 1 – Scott, 2 – Holmes, 3 – Rowan County, 4 – Harrison County

 

District 7 – Corbin hasn’t lost a district game since 2013, and will face the last team to defeat them in a district match, Wayne County. The winner is the 1 seed, the loser gets the two. Lincoln County and Knox Central each enter their game at Knox Central at 0-2 in the district – it’s the same scenario, winner gets the higher seed, in this case the 3, while the loser goes down to the 4 seed. Simple as it gets. Prediction – 1 – Wayne County, 2 – Corbin, 3 – Knox Central, 4 – Lincoln County

 

District 8 – This is the only district where the seeds top to bottom are totally locked in. Johnson Central has already claimed the 1 seed in the district, and will visit Letcher County Central just to complete the formality of an unbeaten slate. Harlan County is 2-1 in the district, and has the 2 seed. If they were to lose against Perry County Central and Letcher County Central were to pull a historic upset against Johnson Central, then there would be a three way tie for second place with Harlan County, Letcher County Central, and Clay County. However, Harlan County would own the tiebreaker, having beaten both the other two head to head already – the same head to head advantage applies if Letcher County Central were to lose and it was just a two way tie between Harlan County and Clay County. Clay County (2-2) is locked into the 3 seed because in a three way tiebreaker after Harlan County claimed the 2 seed, it would revert to straight head to head, where Clay County has the advantage having beaten Letcher County Central. If Harlan County and Letcher County Central won to make it a two way tie between Letcher County Central and Clay County for third, the head to head advantage would apply there too. In reality, Letcher County Central is going to lose to Johnson Central, so really, the tiebreakers are extremely unlikely to even reach that far. Which leaves Letcher County Central at the 4 in those scenarios, and Perry County Central out of the playoffs. Perry County Central is 0-3 in district play, and a 1-3 mark would at best tie them with a 1-3 Letcher County Central, who owns the head to head tiebreak. No prediction, this is locked in: – 1 – Johnson Central, 2 – Harlan County, 3 – Clay County, 4 – Letcher County Central

 

Upcoming Game of the Week

 

The Franklin County at Central game is a real contender, because while Franklin County is the favorite, Central is the team with the greater pedigree, and they’re at home. But Corbin vs. Wayne County is the choice here. As mentioned, it has been six years since Corbin has lost a district game, but despite their higher ranking and homefield advantage, they feel a bit like an underdog here. Wayne County has seemed to have a bit more juice in their common opponents, and Corbin is coming off a much tougher than expected win against Lincoln County. I will be glued to updates to see how the Redhounds defend their crown and field.

"Franklin-Simpson closes with Glasgow – a certain loss."--Dragon Fire

 

A little something for the Wildcats' lockers?

Nice work here. Very informative for someone who doesn’t generally follow 4A in NKY. That being said, watch out for those Scott Eagles to surprise some folks. There is some very strong talent on that 6-2 team.

"Franklin-Simpson closes with Glasgow – a certain loss."--Dragon Fire

 

A little something for the Wildcats' lockers?

 

It's really no offense, but I'd honestly be floored if they got close at all.

I actually see The following results for district 1 in week 11

South Warren over Logan

Hoptown over Paducah

Mayfield over Madisonville.

After that it will depend on what your opponents do.

 

I also think Corbin knocks off Wayne County this week.

 

District 2 belongs to Franklin Simpson.

 

District 3 is a toss-up.

 

Ultimately, nothing will stop a Boyle County/Johnson Central State Final & a Boyle County State title..