BGP Severe Weather Alert Day

[nWo]

Due to the severe weather that is expected to develop I'm issuing a Severe Weather Alert Day that will last into Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms that could develop look to produce damaging winds, large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. This look to be a late evening into an overnight event. My main areas of concern are in western Kentucky and other parts of Kentucky along the Ohio River. The cities included are Paducah, Murray, Mayfield, Fulton, Owensboro, Louisville.

 

Showers and some possible thunderstorms will develop during the day on Tuesday. They are expected to clear out by early evening. Some of these could contain some small hail and strong winds. It is the overnight hours when the severe storms could develop. With warm southerly winds warm moist air will move into Kentucky mainly west of I-75. As a strong cold front meets this warm moist air the severe storms are expected to develop. The models are showing more than one line of severe storms could develop.

 

Those in the rest of Kentucky can expected the same conditions during the day on Wednesday.

 

Stay weather alert today, tonight and on Wednesday. I will update this thread later today. I will update through out the day on our Twitter page.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wednesday

 

[nWo]

Normally I don't do this but after looking at the latest model info I want to post a word of caution for everyone. Now is the time to prepare for the severe weather coming later tonight into the morning hours on Wednesday. The tornado threat has grown much since this morning. This could become a severe outbreak tonight into Wednesday morning.

 

I was just telling my best friend at work that I won't get much rest tonight. I will try and post and update around lunch time. This is one time I really hope I'm wrong.

 

Stay weather aware tonight and Wednesday and go over your emergency plan now.

[nWo]

Midday update:

 

As I expected the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk Area for parts of Kentucky and Indiana. Here is the Public Severe Weather Outlook(PWO) from the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK.

 

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1050 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

 

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Ozarks region to

the Ohio Valley late this afternoon into tonight...

 

* LOCATIONS...

Indiana

Western and northern Kentucky

Southern and eastern Missouri

Illinois

Northern Arkansas

Northwest Tennessee

Far western Ohio

 

* HAZARDS...

Several tornadoes, a few intense

Widespread large hail, some baseball size

Scattered damaging winds

 

* SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop from portions of

the lower Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley through tonight.

Strong tornadoes will be possible, especially across portions of

the lower and middle Ohio Valley. Otherwise, large hail and

damaging winds are expected.

 

Preparedness actions...

 

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility

of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,

weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado

watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form

during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for

your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or

interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

 

 

 

 

[nWo]

I will post a more detailed timing list later today. Looks to be more than one line of storms to move through Kentucky. A majority of significant F-2 or greater tornadoes have been associated with values of around 1 on the Significant Tornado Parameter model. I have seen values as high as between 3-5 all along the Ohio River and in western Kentucky. I've also seen them as high as between 8-9 in southern Missouri!!

 

My main concern that these indicators are during the overnight hours into Wednesday morning. Now this doesn't necessarily mean that everyone will see a tornado but that the conditions are favorable for the development of strong long track tornadoes.

 

I will update later this evening. Everyone should be weather aware later tonight into the morning on Wednesday. I will update throughout the day on our Twitter feed.

[nWo]

[nWo]

[nWo]

Tornado Watch maybe issued soon for parts of western Kentucky.

 

[sweet16]

Today just has an eerie feeling.

[nWo]

Today just has an eerie feeling.

I know what you mean. I've had this nervous feeling all day about the weather that I've never had before. Be careful Tornado Watches are up in Missouri and Illinois right now.

[TheDeuce]

Call me crazy, but it felt significantly warmer when I left work a little bit ago than it did around lunch time.

 

I will have my NOAA radio on when I got to bed tonight, if I ever go to bed.

[nWo]

Call me crazy, but it felt significantly warmer when I left work a little bit ago than it did around lunch time.

 

I will have my NOAA radio on when I got to bed tonight, if I ever go to bed.

No you did feel that. That is the warm moist air that is to move in before the cold front comes through that will cause the severe weather later tonight and Wednesday morning.

[nWo]

I just received this in a email from Joe Sullivan-Warning Coordinator Meteorologist NWS-Louisville. This is the office I'm registered with as a weather spotter.

 

With the potential for tornadoes to occur during the overnight hours, it is extremely important to ensure phones are set to alert mode and weather radios have fresh batteries before going to sleep tonight!

 

http://www.weather.gov/media/lmk/briefing/Feb282017/SvrWx02282017_330pm.pdf

[nWo]

Tornado Watch maybe issued soon for parts of western Kentucky.

 

[True blue (and gold)]

I have no basement, so the dog and I have been invited to stay the night with some friends. Better safe than sorry, hey? It also puts me 15 minutes closer to work, so that's a plus.

[nWo]

I have no basement, so the dog and I have been invited to stay the night with some friends. Better safe than sorry, hey? It also puts me 15 minutes closer to work, so that's a plus.

 

I agree