October 27, 201510 yr FWIW I do wonder if what's been playing out in the House might translate into the primary elections in some manner. The Tea Party isn't as surgent as they were in 2010, but it seems that style of Republican has staked out enough of a foothold that they are now using it to push back against the "establishment" rather than Democrats exclusively. It's not likely, but it's also not beyond the realm of possibility that some sort of faction branches off from the Republican party and competes independently. Trump is the most likely choice in the sense that he can fund himself and has enough celebrity to garner a following. Who knows what he'll do. It's more likely than not his numbers collapse and he has no following to take and he withdraws with a whimper. But, I could also see someone like Cruz ending up as the Tea Party faction candidate. In that event he might be able to threaten the "establishment" candidate during the length of the primary without gaining enough to win, then branching off and running independently, taking his followers with them. If the establishment guy is Bush then this might catalyze such a reaction further. Like I said above, it's hard to go against history on these things and there's a hugely obvious incentive for Republicans not to split, but this primary does seem very strange and there certainly are rifts within the Republican Party. And it isn't above someone like Cruz to put their ego above their party's best interest. It's fun to speculate, at the very least.
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