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Central/Henry County predictions

Who Wins? 13 members have voted

  1. 1. Who Wins?

    • Central
      76%
    • Henry County
      23%

Please sign in or register to vote in this poll.

Featured Replies

Central looks to make it seven straight wins while a Henry County win would mean a district title for the Wildcats. How does this one turn out?

I've seen both. Henry has a nice team. Central, however, is not nice. The Wildcats will need to control the clock and avoid turnovers, but I don't think they can against the absurd number of playmakers the YellowJackets have.

Side note:

If Central beats Henry, Bardstown beats Thomas Nelson and Waggener beats Moore — all expected — it would force a 3-way tie for the No. 2 seed in the district.

 

Whomever understands how these wacky playoff scenarios work, please help. Bardstown and Waggener are both 4-4, while Henry's only loss in 8 tries was to Waggener.

  • Author
Side note:

If Central beats Henry, Bardstown beats Thomas Nelson and Waggener beats Moore — all expected — it would force a 3-way tie for the No. 2 seed in the district.

 

Whomever understands how these wacky playoff scenarios work, please help. Bardstown and Waggener are both 4-4, while Henry's only loss in 8 tries was to Waggener.

 

I can't see any situation where Henry isn't the two seeds. Their wins are much heavier than Bardstown and Waggener. As for the three and four seeds, it would likely depend on whether Bardstown beats Allen County and/or Waggener beats Valley. Still lots to see happen before then.

In a three way tie you look at the head to head situation first and since all three have beaten each other the next criteria is a point system. You take the non district wins you team has and add their wins up as points. Example Henry's teams they have beaten, their amount of wins on the season. This will put Henry in second. Then after that you have two teams and the criteria is head to head which puts Bardstown in third.

Central 35-13.

  • Author
In a three way tie you look at the head to head situation first and since all three have beaten each other the next criteria is a point system. You take the non district wins you team has and add their wins up as points. Example Henry's teams they have beaten, their amount of wins on the season. This will put Henry in second. Then after that you have two teams and the criteria is head to head which puts Bardstown in third.

 

Incorrect on the last part. You add up points for all three teams - top point getter gets the higher seed, second best points get next seed, fewest points get last seed. Yes, head-to-head is used initially, but the only time it goes to head-to-head after points are put in place is if two teams end up with the same amount of points after plugging in all victories for all teams.

 

Also, you don't count just non-district games. District games are also counted, but only those against teams not in the tiebreaker. Obviously all three teams will have beat Moore and Thomas Nelson, so they wouldn't really do much for anyone in the tiebreaker.

In a three way tie you look at the head to head situation first and since all three have beaten each other the next criteria is a point system. You take the non district wins you team has and add their wins up as points. Example Henry's teams they have beaten, their amount of wins on the season. This will put Henry in second. Then after that you have two teams and the criteria is head to head which puts Bardstown in third.

 

Bardstown won't be third if Waggener beats Valley.

 

http://khsaa.org/handbook/competitionrules/fbcompetitionrules.pdf

Page 2, Column 2 (right), part iv:

"If the tie for the position involves only three teams, and the application of (ii) and (iii) results in one team being declared the winner of the tied position based on point totals, the highest point total from the application of (ii) and (iii) between the two remaining tied teams shall be declared to hold the next position."

 

So Bardstown's head-to-head win over Waggener does NOT apply.

 

HENRY COUNTY WINS

- Walton-Verona (5-4)

- Owen County (4-4)

- Carroll County (3-5)

- Moore (3-6)

- Also beat Thomas Nelson (1-7) and Lincoln County (1-7)

- Has Spencer County (8-1) left

 

BARDSTOWN WINS

- Nelson County (3-6)

- Moore (3-6)

- Bardstown would also get 1 point for beating 1-7 Thomas Nelson

- Marion County (0-8)

- Has Allen-County Scottsville (4-5) left

 

WAGGENER WINS

- Moore (3-6)

- Atherton (2-7)

- Thomas Nelson (1-7)

- Shawnee (0-7)

- Henry does NOT count since it is involved in the tiebreaker

- Has Valley (5-3) left, but Valley will beat Breck this week to get to 6-3

 

Henry County already has the 2 locked up with 15 points. Even if all four of Bardstown's teams went 8-0 the next two week (2 wins per team, four teams) Henry would still win because 8+6=14 (one less than Henry ALREADY has) AND Henry is counting Moore (just like Bardstown, so what Moore does helps BOTH but essentially cancels out). Even if Bardstown beats AC-S and Henry County loses to Moore, it won't be enough.

 

In this scenario, Moore's not getting to 4-6 (because it must lose to Waggener to make the three-way tiebreaker happen).

Both Bardstown and Waggener would be including Thomas Nelson, so that cancels out.

Shawnee being 0-7 instead of 1-7 hurts Waggener. Shawnee has DeSales (won't win) and Fort Knox left (might win).

Atherton has Fern Creek left (won't win).

Thomas Nelson has Taylor left (might win, but doubt it).

Marion County is winless, but has Taylor and Washington left.

 

 

To sum it up, Henry is the 2.

Waggener likely the 3 (if it beats Valley) even though Bardstown currently leads Waggener in tiebreaker.

Bardstown needs to beat AC-S or have Waggener lose to Valley to get the 3.

I remember it being the point system for the three teams once one was decided to have second then it went back to head to head for 3/4 seed. I guess I could have been wrong.

Central names the score in this one. Henry has a nice team, but not at the level of Central

Bardstown won't be third if Waggener beats Valley.

 

http://khsaa.org/handbook/competitionrules/fbcompetitionrules.pdf

Page 2, Column 2 (right), part iv:

"If the tie for the position involves only three teams, and the application of (ii) and (iii) results in one team being declared the winner of the tied position based on point totals, the highest point total from the application of (ii) and (iii) between the two remaining tied teams shall be declared to hold the next position."

 

So Bardstown's head-to-head win over Waggener does NOT apply.

 

HENRY COUNTY WINS

- Walton-Verona (5-4)

- Owen County (4-4)

- Carroll County (3-5)

- Moore (3-6)

- Also beat Thomas Nelson (1-7) and Lincoln County (1-7)

- Has Spencer County (8-1) left

 

BARDSTOWN WINS

- Nelson County (3-6)

- Moore (3-6)

- Bardstown would also get 1 point for beating 1-7 Thomas Nelson

- Marion County (0-8)

- Has Allen-County Scottsville (4-5) left

 

WAGGENER WINS

- Moore (3-6)

- Atherton (2-7)

- Thomas Nelson (1-7)

- Shawnee (0-7)

- Henry does NOT count since it is involved in the tiebreaker

- Has Valley (5-3) left, but Valley will beat Breck this week to get to 6-3

 

Henry County already has the 2 locked up with 15 points. Even if all four of Bardstown's teams went 8-0 the next two week (2 wins per team, four teams) Henry would still win because 8+6=14 (one less than Henry ALREADY has) AND Henry is counting Moore (just like Bardstown, so what Moore does helps BOTH but essentially cancels out). Even if Bardstown beats AC-S and Henry County loses to Moore, it won't be enough.

 

In this scenario, Moore's not getting to 4-6 (because it must lose to Waggener to make the three-way tiebreaker happen).

Both Bardstown and Waggener would be including Thomas Nelson, so that cancels out.

Shawnee being 0-7 instead of 1-7 hurts Waggener. Shawnee has DeSales (won't win) and Fort Knox left (might win).

Atherton has Fern Creek left (won't win).

Thomas Nelson has Taylor left (might win, but doubt it).

Marion County is winless, but has Taylor and Washington left.

 

 

To sum it up, Henry is the 2.

Waggener likely the 3 (if it beats Valley) even though Bardstown currently leads Waggener in tiebreaker.

Bardstown needs to beat AC-S or have Waggener lose to Valley to get the 3.

 

Well done, very thorough explanation.

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