Marvin Lewis' Quarterbacks

[MentschTrachtGottLacht]

....

 

There has been a LOT of talk about Marvin Lewis' tenure since 2003 and the lack of playoff wins, and it got me thinking about the QB play over his career here. He has had 4 full-time starters since he arrived (Ryan Fitzpatrick for only one season when Palmer was hurt), and none of them have been world-beaters. Much like some other coaches whose knock has been "couldn't develop / find a great QB", does that tag fit for Marvin too? I'm of the belief that the book on Dalton is far from written, although most disagree, but it is fair to say that to this point the Bengals haven't developed / found an "elite" QB.

 

Here are their stats (only their stats for the Bengals).

 

Jon Kitna: 2003 (his only year starting for Marvin) 62.3% comp pct. 3,591 yards. 6.91 yards per att. 26 TD and 15 int. 87.4 rating. Team record 8-8.

 

Carson Palmer: 2004-2007, 2009-2010 63.0% comp pct. 3,660 yards per year. 7.10 yards per att. 25 TD and 16 int per year. 87.5 rating. Team record 48-48.

 

Ryan Fitzpatrick: 2008 (13 games) 59.4% comp pct. 1,905 yards. 5.12 yards per att. 8 TD and 9 int. 70.0 rating. Team record 4-11-1.

 

Andy Dalton: 2011-2014 61.63% comp pct. 3,689 yards per year. 6.98 yards per att. 25 TD and 16.5 int per year. 85.2 rating. Team record 40-23-1.

[Hellbird]

I think Carson Palmer could easily be labeled as an elite QB. Injuries can not be controlled. He was easily if not the best, one of the best QB's in the league in 2005 alone and even had a nice 2006 after his injury. The problem the Bengals had was Mike Brown and management let the O-Line deteriorate immediatly following the 2005 season. They allowed what was a great and maybe one of the best lines in the NFL be broken up for financial reasons. They allowed Steinback who was one of the best young linemen in the league in 2005 leave to the Browns soon after and the line was ignored in the draft for years after that.

 

Carson is still getting it done and was one of the best in the NFL last year until his injury right before the playoffs.

 

I wouldn't put Carson in the list of bad QB's in Marvins tenure.

 

there is a reason Carson wanted out of here and that can be directly attributed to the way the team managed it's personnel and coaching.

[MentschTrachtGottLacht]

I think Carson Palmer could easily be labeled as an elite QB. Injuries can not be controlled. He was easily if not the best, one of the best QB's in the league in 2005 alone and even had a nice 2006 after his injury. The problem the Bengals had was Mike Brown and management let the O-Line deteriorate immediatly following the 2005 season. They allowed what was a great and maybe one of the best lines in the NFL be broken up for financial reasons. They allowed Steinback who was one of th ebst young linemen in the league in 2005 leave to the Browns soon after and the line was ignored in the draft for years after that.

 

Carson is still getting it done and was one of the best in the NFL last year until his injury right before the playoffs.

 

I wouldn't put Carson in the list of bad QB's in Marvins tenure.

 

there is a reason Carson wanted out of here and that can be directly attributed to the way the team managed it's personnel and coaching.

 

I was a huge Carson Palmer fan when he was here, so you don't need to convince me about him and his potential. However, when you look at their numbers as Bengals' starting QBs, they are nearly identical. Mix in the fact that Dalton didn't sit for a year, and Palmer's numbers are buoyed some by having good 5th and 6th years in 2009 and 2010, and it is hard to convince me that there is a big gap between them.

 

The other point that jumped out to me in reviewing these numbers last night while watching the Reds is that Kitna's 2003 looks (again) a LOT like Palmer's average year and Dalton's average year. The similarity between all 3 of them (quantitatively) is eerie, to be honest. Obviously the 2008 team with Fitzpatrick was a dumpster fire, but we already knew that.

[BigVMan23]

Wow, looking at Kitna's one year and Palmer's averages...they were the same qb. Not a dimes worth of difference in their stats. Who would have thought that?

[Hellbird]

I was a huge Carson Palmer fan when he was here, so you don't need to convince me about him and his potential. However, when you look at their numbers as Bengals' starting QBs, they are nearly identical. Mix in the fact that Dalton didn't sit for a year, and Palmer's numbers are buoyed some by having good 5th and 6th years in 2009 and 2010, and it is hard to convince me that there is a big gap between them.

 

The other point that jumped out to me in reviewing these numbers last night while watching the Reds is that Kitna's 2003 looks (again) a LOT like Palmer's average year and Dalton's average year. The similarity between all 3 of them (quantitatively) is eerie, to be honest. Obviously the 2008 team with Fitzpatrick was a dumpster fire, but we already knew that.

Again, a huge difference and factor is the o-line.

Including the year Carson was drafted (2003) the Bengals only drafted 3 o-linemen in the first 3 rounds in 8 years of drafting. The same thing can't be said of Dalton where just in the 4 years Dalton has been here the Bengals have already drafted 2 1st rounders to protect him and another 2nd rounder this year.

After Carson was drafted it wasn't until 4 years later the Bengals drafted a o-linemen in the first 3 rounds and that was Whittworth in the 2nd round and then another 3 years passed before they drafted another linemen in the first 3 rounds and that was Andre Smith. The line was ignored greatly while the Bengals thought it was more important to draft defense high in the drafts after Carson was drafted. I believe after Carson was selected in the 1st round in 2003 5 of the next 6 drafts a defensive player was taken 1st.

While in the 5 drafts including the draft Dalton was taken the Bengals have taken offensive players 3 out of the 5 drafts first.

 

That has been the problem the Bengals had during the Carson years, the team had so many needs on defense that the oline was greatly ignored and allowed to become one of the worst in the league. Dalton's tenure has been the opposite, the team has ben very good at depth and therefore could concnetrate on building their o-line now.

[Hellbird]

Wow, looking at Kitna's one year and Palmer's averages...they were the same qb. Not a dimes worth of difference in their stats. Who would have thought that?

Kitna was very daltonesque. His numbers were up there just like Dalton's because he lived and died with the short little screens and bubble screen passes. Kitna had no arm for downfield and lived on the short passes.

[MentschTrachtGottLacht]

Kitna was very daltonesque. His numbers were up there just like Dalton's because he lived and died with the short little screens and bubble screen passes. Kitna had no arm for downfield and lived on the short passes.

 

Yet, again, look at all three of their yards per attempt? Doesn't jive with the narrative.

[Hellbird]

Yet, again, look at all three of their yards per attempt? Doesn't jive with the narrative.

It does when you realize that Carson would throw more downfield than the other two. IT is harder to complete a pass downfield of any length than it is to complete short passes. So when you throw more short passes you should have more completions that will add to your avg per attempt.

 

For instance if you complete 4 passes of only 4-5 yards downfield and the receiver gets 2 yards of YAC that will come out to an avg of 7 yards for those 4 passes. Now if you throw 4 passes downfield of 15 yards with say a 2 YAC for each completion but you only complete 2 of 4 of those, you have around the same yards per attempt. I know it's not that specific and all but just explaining how we all know it's easier to complete shorter passes than long and anyone who has watched Kitna when he was here and watched Dalton knows that both are short pass QB's and last year proves that point where Dalton in his last 18 quarters and still counting hasn't completed a single pass of 20 yards or longer, talking 20+ downfield, not 2 yard pass with 18 YAC.

 

Now if we want we can throw all that out the window and just look at these facts....

Carson Palmer had more than double the amount of attempts than both Dalton and Kitna as a Bengal

 

Carson had 3217 attempts

Dalton has 1301 attempts

and Kitna has 1707 attempts

 

Carson also has a higher yards per attempt which tells youjust how much better he was than the other two considering you will have more incompletions the more attempts you have which puts Carson in the toughest spot compared to the other 2 yet he still has a higher yards per attempt avg.

[Hellbird]

You also have to look at the rules changes to help the QB's over the last 4 years also. Definitely makes it a lot easier for QB's today than just 10 years ago.

 

Put it this way, just the last 4 years since Dalton has been in the league and he and Carson playing under the same rules, Carson has upped his avg to 7.5 yards per atempt while Dalton is only at 6.9 and that is on top of the fact that 2 of those years Carson played on one of the worst teams in the league when he played for the Raiders.

So just over the last 4 years Carson has over 1/2 a yard per attempt on Dalton and that is huge.

 

Even back when Carson first started, his first 4 years with the rules not as QB friendly as they are today he still avg'd 7.3 an attempt which was still .4 more than Dalton in his first 4 years with the rules favoring the QB.

[Hellbird]

To put the last 4 years into perspective and my point about Carson actually should have been considered as being a QB that was elite while here etc.

With the rule changes, over the last 4 years Carson Palmer has the same yards per attempt as Tom Brady over the same time frame.

 

7.5 yards per attempt by both Brady and Palmer is very good, and again over the same time frame Dalton only has 6.9 avg.

 

Just for more comparison, I will include the best of the best Peyton Manning with the other 3, Carson, Brady and Dalton

The last 4 years these QB's started games

Peyton 7.7 yards per attempt (didn't play at all 2011 so his years are 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014)

Palmer 7.5 yards per attempt

Brady 7.5 yards per attempt

Dalton 6.9 yards per attempt

[Clyde]

I've always felt Kitna was undervalued.

[Hellbird]

I've always felt Kitna was undervalued.

Kitna always reminded me of a Turk Schoenert type of QB. A great backup to have who could get the job done if ever called upon but not one that would be expected to win the big one.

[UKMustangFan]

I think more than anything it shows just how rare and hard to find "Elite" QBs are. It's not like they're popping up all the time and the Bengals are just getting the wrong guys.

 

Brady

Manning

Brees

Rodgers

Luck

Big Ben

 

Those are the only guys I would say could even be considered elite. That's 6 guys and most have been in the league a long time. When we look at guys that have retired in the last 8-10 years, who are elite QBs? Warner and Favre? Anyone else? Very hard to come by a truly elite QB.

[plantmanky]

I've always felt Kitna was undervalued.

 

Agreed, Kitna's been in the news the last few months. Questions surround Kitna's coaching gig at Waxahachie

[plantmanky]

I think more than anything it shows just how rare and hard to find "Elite" QBs are. It's not like they're popping up all the time and the Bengals are just getting the wrong guys.

 

Brady

Manning

Brees

Rodgers

Luck

Big Ben

 

Those are the only guys I would say could even be considered elite. That's 6 guys and most have been in the league a long time. When we look at guys that have retired in the last 8-10 years, who are elite QBs? Warner and Favre? Anyone else? Very hard to come by a truly elite QB.

 

Which Manning? I wouldnt say Eli is elite, but yet he has 2 SB wins, so maybe he is.

 

I wouldnt say Luck is elite yet. Hes Peyton 2.0 until he wins a SB.