Severe Weather Alert Day (Monday 7/13/15)

[nWo]

As I expected last night Monday is a severe weather alert day.

 

Mutliple rounds of severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds...tornadoes and hail are likely today across Kentucky and southwest Ohio.

 

These severe thunderstorms look to be widespread and are expected today and tonight. A few tornadoes and isolated instances of large hail. A considerable damaging wind risk with a possibility of one or more derecho producing MCS across Kentucky and SWOH.

 

The best time this morning looks to be between 4-8 pm for northern and central Kentucky. The chance is around 70%. Central and southeast Kentucky has this chance continuing until midnight.

 

The Cincinnati and extreme NKY area may see some thunderstorms between 12-4 pm EDT. The chance is around 10%

 

Everybody please stay alert throughout the day and tonight. I'll try to update as many times as I can today when the information warrants it.

 

You can track any severe weather here.

 

http://bluegrasspreps.com/bluegrasspreps-coms-break/severe-weather-tracker-302245.html

 

Here are the updated maps for this morning

 

Outlook

 

Tornado

 

Wind

 

Hail

 

 

Thunderstorm outlook 4-8pm EDT

 

8-midnight EDT

[nWo]

For those who have Kentucky Utilites as a power company here is a link to their outage map.

 

LG&E/KU/ODP Outage Map

[Bluto]

Thanks for all you do, nWo!

[nWo]

Thanks for all you do, nWo!

 

You're welcome. One thing I neglected to mention in my first post is that the moderate risk area has increased from yesterday to include almost all of Kentucky.

[nWo]

This looks to be a significant severe weather event.

 

From the Storm Prediciton Center...

 

Public Severe Weather Outlook

 

* HAZARDS...

Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force

A few intense tornadoes

Scattered large hail, some baseball size

 

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibilityof dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings.

 

A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

Edited July 13, 2015 by nWo

[dallaslaredo]

Once again, for NKY, the SPC has missed the target - the MDT risk has now shifted at least a 100 miles to the west and these morning clouds will limit daytime heating and thus the severe risk in NKY. This happens every time severe storms are predicted this year and one would think the SPC and NWS would pick up on it - thank goodness the local TV weather people do.

[UKMustangFan]

Once again, for NKY, the SPC has missed the target - the MDT risk has now shifted at least a 100 miles to the west and these morning clouds will limit daytime heating and thus the severe risk in NKY. This happens every time severe storms are predicted this year and one would think the SPC and NWS would pick up on it - thank goodness the local TV weather people do.

 

So are you saying it isn't going to happen?

[nWo]

Once again, for NKY, the SPC has missed the target - the MDT risk has now shifted at least a 100 miles to the west and these morning clouds will limit daytime heating and thus the severe risk in NKY. This happens every time severe storms are predicted this year and one would think the SPC and NWS would pick up on it - thank goodness the local TV weather people do.

 

Just because the moderate area has moved doesn't mean that severe weather is not going to hit NKY. That area is still in a enhanced risk area. Also who do you think the local weather people get their severe risk maps from? They come from the Storm Prediction Center and the National Weather service.

[nWo]

Watches are already being issued in parts of Southern Indiana. People can do what they want but if it was me I would prepare for the worst. I just put the information out for their use.

 

One more thing the categorical risk area may have changed but the thunderstorm outlook hasn't as of yet. it is still the same as this morning.

[SportsGuy41017]

So are you saying it isn't going to happen?

 

OHHH it's going to happen.

[nWo]

Quick update:

 

Don't let this first round that should come through between 12-2 pm EDT lull you into a false sense of security. It looks like we are going to be going through several lines of strong to severe storms all the way till midnight. Some winds may reached hurricane force speeds of 70-80 mph.

[SportsGuy41017]

So are you saying it isn't going to happen?

 

It's coming straight towards us

 

[UKMustangFan]

It's coming straight towards us

 

[ATTACH]51418[/ATTACH]

 

That's why I was asking....I was looking at the radar and unless it just completely disappears or changes direction, there's no way we aren't getting hit.

[nWo]

A severe weather watch should be issued soon. Should be in about an hour or so.

 

[nWo]

Update on the timing of the storms:

 

12-8 PM EDT 70% chance of severe storms most of northern,central and southeastern Kentucky.

 

8 pm to midnight western Kentucky from about I-65 back towards the west.

 

Now don't get hung up on the times these are just estimates.