South Warren - Is It Fair?

 

We’re just over halfway through the regular season, and in the South-Central Kentucky area, there are two teams that are considered legitimate state title contenders. One of course, is Bowling Green, the preeminent favorites in 5A. The other is South Warren in 3A. The Spartans began the year on the fringe of the contenders. After a surprising showing last year when they were 9-4 and finished as region runner-ups, they were accorded top 10 status this season, but still trailed fellow Region 1 teams Paducah Tilghman and Fort Campbell. But now we are in the sixth game and South Warren sits at a sparkling 6-0 and has grinded their opponents into dust to the tune of 240 points scored and a lone field goal in the waning seconds allowed. This has vaulted them to #3 in this week’s BGP rankings. But while they are experiencing this storybook season, two criticisms persist. One, is that they play a soft schedule. True enough, their opponents are 15-21 on the year, or an even 15-15 if you don’t count the losses they took to South Warren. Only one opponent they’ve beaten has a winning record – Elizabethtown – and in turn Elizabethtown counts only a single one of their five wins against a team with a winning record. I would argue that most of the non-believers have not seen the Spartans in person as well as that even with beating bad teams, you have to be impressed with just how dominant South Warren has been in victory. My personal take is that the contender status is more than warranted.

 

But the major topic for this article is the second criticism – that being that South Warren enjoys an unfair advantage by being a much larger school playing in a small class. When the school opened in 2010, they had a male enrollment of 413 boys, placing them as one of the largest in 3A for the 2011 alignment, which we are now in the third year of. Some growth was expected, but perhaps not the growth they have. By last year, they had already jumped by almost 23% to 525 males. That enrollment level would make them a high 4A team, and makes them larger than other teams in the county like Warren East (4A) and Warren Central (5A). This year is expected to be even larger than that, pushing them most likely to be a 5A school in the next alignment in 2015. And therein lies the rub. South Warren is a 5A sized school competing against schools in 3A. This despite a provision in the KHSAA alignment calling for a team to be adjusted up or down in classes with a 12% or higher change in average enrollment that would place them above or below their current class after the midpoint of the alignment.

 

This is not a situation that is new to the state. The most notable example was the 2006 Mercer County Titans. Mercer County had recently absorbed Harrodsburg to form a consolidated Mercer County school. The Titans had been playing in AA, and with a single year left in the alignment they were allowed to stay, despite an enrollment that would ultimately place them in 5A the following year. Had the six class system existed at the time, it would be roughly equivalent to them being a 5A school in 3A. Mercer County rolled to a 15-0 record that season with a state title. Boyle County (27-14) and state runner-up Russell (15-12) were the only opponents to come within two touchdowns of the Titans. In the playoffs, they won by an average of more than 34 points per game. They have not advanced past the second round or won more than six games since.

 

Of course, a key difference between the situations is that Mercer County was already an established school, merely becoming larger by absorbing another established school that had been playing football of its own. And while Harrodsburg was not a great team in their last year of existence at 3-8, they were a team that had made the playoffs and provided additional players with experience and depth to a Mercer County squad that had gone 10-2 the year before. South Warren was formed as a new school carved from a previous one. They had no seniors in 2010 when they played only a JV schedule. They weren’t like Collins (from Shelby County) that received the lion’s share of the athletes straight out of the gate. And they didn’t have immediate, wild success like Mercer County, so not as many cared.

 

But now they are having the success, and slowly but surely, the complaints have started. Most of the increase in South Warren’s numbers have come from the larger classes that have moved in since growth began. The junior and senior classes have as many players combined as the sophomore class alone (25). On offense, most of the starters are seniors that began the program, including 3 linemen, their QB, primary two rushers, and top two leaders in receiving yards. On defense, three of their front four (including UK commit Adrian Middleton) are seniors. Two of their three linebackers are seniors. Their QB Jay Eblen plays in the secondary, and several of the other players are two way players. That begs the question, just how much an advantage are they gaining?

Edited October 2, 201312 yr by DragonFire
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Let me throw out something else. When they played there first varsity game 3 years ago they had NO players that had varsity experience. When they opened the school the county system gave players the option of staying at Greenwood and Central if they had lettered. This year they have a very experienced squad that has played since they were soph. which gives rise to why they are so good this year. They were over matched 3 years ago and made some strides last year but this year the 12 SR's most of them have a lot of experience over the last 2 years. Should they have been moved up in class this year possibly but that was KHSAA's call and they did not move them. Also its not like they tried to set their schedule to be easy this year they've played 2 5A schools, a 4A school that went to the semi's last year, they have a 6A school this week and Russellville is A. They also played E-town which is 3A then they have there district games that they have to play.

 

I think everyone is surprised at how good they are this year and how dominant on Defense they have been and no one in the state expected them to have had 5 shutouts with the teams they have played. They have held 3 very good backs in Brown of East, Potter of Greenwood and Cecil of E-town to very few yards and look at the numbers those guys have put up on other teams.

 

I think what it comes down to is South got a very good Gift from KHSAA for the first four years which has allowed them to build a program but they also are benefiting from Sr. experience this year which as everyone knows is a very big positive thing to have. For instance look at Monroe last year they dominated South with a Sr. led Squad.

This despite a provision in the KHSAA alignment calling for a team to be adjusted up or down in classes with a 12% or higher change in average enrollment that would place them above or below their current class after the midpoint of the alignment. This. Thanks Julian. Why have rules if you're not going to follow them?

I actually didn't realize the 12% rule was still in effect. I know it was several years back because Lincoln County jumped to AAAA mid-alignment (and perhaps others did too). I don't recall seeing that provision in writing when the last alignment came out. Perhaps it is a standing alignment policy?

"Let me give you a brief summary of the Board’s discussions and where things stand as of now. These are to be made final following a comment period by the schools, at the Board’s October 18, 2010 meeting in Lexington.

1. Term of the alignment: The alignment term will be for 2011-2012 through 2014-2015. The enrollment figures for 2009-2010 and 2008-2009 (average number of boys, grades 9-12 plus special education) were used to place schools in classes. There will be a review of alignments after the first two years with potential adjustments in class based on schools having a 12% or higher change (increase or decrease) in average boys enrollment, and such change placing a school below or above class bounds."

 

This is from KHSAA web page under tab for Alignment/Realignment. From the Cover Letter information. Notice it say Potential adjustments in class not that they will be adjusted.

I actually didn't realize the 12% rule was still in effect. I know it was several years back because Lincoln County jumped to AAAA mid-alignment (and perhaps others did too). I don't recall seeing that provision in writing when the last alignment came out. Perhaps it is a standing alignment policy?

 

This is the cover letter from the last alignment: http://khsaa.org/football/realignment/20112014/finalalignmentcoverletter.pdf

 

The applicable part:

 

1. Term of the alignment: The alignment term will be for 2011-2012 through 2014-2015. The enrollment figures for 2009-2010 and 2008-2009 (average number of boys, grades 9-12 plus special education) were used to place schools in classes. There will be a review of alignments after the first two years with potential adjustments in class based on schools having a 12% or higher change (increase or decrease) in average boys enrollment, and such change placing a school below or above class bounds.

 

To be fair, it does say potential adjustments.

AH HAHAHA Looks like we were thinking a like there.

To be fair, it does say potential adjustments.

 

Thanks for clearing that up. I didn't recall seeing it. So when it says potential, it makes you wonder if the school has to ask for a change or if the KHSAA has to make the first move. I wouldn't expect either party to move too quickly on it!

Its over now the midway point was last year. Hopefully they will be correctly aligned for the 2015 season.

AH HAHAHA Looks like we were thinking a like there.

 

Great minds!

 

Its over now the midway point was last year. Hopefully they will be correctly aligned for the 2015 season.

 

This was the first season after the midway point. If they were going to be moved, it would have been announced sometime after the enrollment figures were released in October, maybe as late as January. I think someone had mentioned at one point why it didn't happen was some scheduling considerations, and the difficulty for all parties of having a team leave a district, enter another, existing contracts, etc. Which is fine, but if that's the case, then they may as well just not have the provision in there because those will always be problems.

 

My personal feeling is that 4 years is too long for an alignment. I think they first started that leading into 2003, and it was a little bit more OK at that time because you had 4 classes. There wasn't as many schools that jumped up and down, and almost certainly not two classes worth. But with 6 classes, there is a ton of volatility.

So since they are a 5A school playing 3A shouldn't the expectation be for them to win state?

 

When the Mercer County consolidation happened the expectation was immediately that the football was going to win state.

As far as is it fair or not...IMO...the only time something isn't fair is when somebody cheated. Nobody is cheating here. South Warren and their opponents are victims of a flawed system.

 

If they were losing nobody would care.

 

 

 

This was the first season after the midway point. If they were going to be moved, it would have been announced sometime after the enrollment figures were released in October, maybe as late as January. I think someone had mentioned at one point why it didn't happen was some scheduling considerations, and the difficulty for all parties of having a team leave a district, enter another, existing contracts, etc. Which is fine, but if that's the case, then they may as well just not have the provision in there because those will always be problems.

 

My personal feeling is that 4 years is too long for an alignment. I think they first started that leading into 2003, and it was a little bit more OK at that time because you had 4 classes. There wasn't as many schools that jumped up and down, and almost certainly not two classes worth. But with 6 classes, there is a ton of volatility.

 

I don't know for sure but I think part of the problem with moving South would have been where to place them in Class 5A. If you put them in the district that is logical it would have created a 6 team district (Bowling Green, Warren Central, Greenwood, Barren County and Logan County). That assuming that they should have moved to Class 5A. If they had moved them to 4A then you have the District of (Warren East, Allen Co, Franklin Simpson, and Breckinridge Co.) but that would have brought the argument from Warren Central that they should be in 4A since there numbers were about the same as South's were last year. Therefore I guess the KHSAA decided to leave well enough along and let it play out over the last two years. Also, at that point they will have some better numbers on how the enrollment really is based on the three Warren County Schools that were effected (Greenwood, Central and South). It's Obvious that South got a gift and whether people agree or not what we have to remember its not the Kids fault that they are classed where they are we need to let them enjoy their ride this year.

 

As most who have followed them know they really had a struggle the first year in being competitive with teams. Warren East, Allen Co, Monroe Co, Edmonson and Fort Campbell really took it to them that first year.

I don't know for sure but I think part of the problem with moving South would have been where to place them in Class 5A. If you put them in the district that is logical it would have created a 6 team district (Bowling Green' date=' Warren Central, Greenwood, Barren County and Logan County). That assuming that they should have moved to Class 5A. If they had moved them to 4A then you have the District of (Warren East, Allen Co, Franklin Simpson, and Breckinridge Co.) but that would have brought the argument from Warren Central that they should be in 4A since there numbers were about the same as South's were last year. Therefore I guess the KHSAA decided to leave well enough along and let it play out over the last two years. Also, at that point they will have some better numbers on how the enrollment really is based on the three Warren County Schools that were effected (Greenwood, Central and South). It's Obvious that South got a gift and whether people agree or not what we have to remember its not the Kids fault that they are classed where they are we need to let them enjoy their ride this year. As most who have followed them know they really had a struggle the first year in being competitive with teams. Warren East, Allen Co, Monroe Co, Edmonson and Fort Campbell really took it to them that first year.[/quote']

 

They would have definitely been in 4A. As far as Warren Central goes, they didn't have near enough of a drop to meet the standards. I don't think they've yet reached a 10% drop. I could be wrong, I don't have the numbers in front of me at the moment.

Life's not fair. For everyone that has a problem with it, get over it.