oneijoe

EKU... I think I know the problem and talked about it on the other thread.

http://www.bluegrasspreps.com/showthread.php?s=&threadid=16503

In case you haven't noticed, theScribe's number crunching is UP!!

http://www.bluegrasspreps.com/showthread.php?s=&postid=218516#post218516

Before I start my take on the numbers, I want to express my appreciation to theScribe.... He's the BOMB!!

Here goes:

DISTRICT STRENGTH:

Even - don't know if this has any bearing at all on 1A vs. 2A anyway.

OVERALL STRENGTH (all 1A vs. all 2A power rating):

Advantage 2A - 1.9 points overall, and more than a touchdown and 2 pt. conversion among playoff teams.

This seems to argue 2A is better overall, with an even greater margin in comparing each classes top 32 (the playoff teams).

HEAD TO HEAD (1A vs. 2A matchups):

Clear advantage to 2A - 38 wins 34 losses. The 2A wins also came against better 1A teams than did the 1A wins over 2A teams.

VS. 3A (1A vs. 3A compared to 2A vs. 3A)

Small advantage to 2A - Although 2A owned 16 more wins vs. 3A, the wins were against teams averaging 3.7 points less than the wins by 1A. For what it's worth, 2A's losses came to teams 1.1 better than the 3A teams that won vs. 1A.

16 more wins by 2A, to me, compensates for the 3.3 point difference of opponents.

VS. 4A (1A vs. 4A compared to 2A vs. 4A)

Clear 2A advantage - 2A owned 12 more wins and 1 less loss against 4A, with the wins coming against BETTER 4A teams by 2.8 points. 1A did lose against better 4A teams (2.9 points) than did 2A.

PLAYING UP

Advantage 2A - basically the 3A and 4A numbers combined.

TOUGHEST SCHEDULES

Even - #1 and #2 teams are 1A, but 6 of top 10 are 2A

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IMO, these numbers prove conclusively that 2A WAS INDEED SUPERIOR TO 1A IN 2002. It's time to quit the 2A bashing!!

I rest my case pending "cross examination"..... LOL...

So did I, goherd96... The Massey site is a real gem of info...

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It needs to be added, with all this 3A vs. 2A discussion going on while we're waiting on theScribe, that overall 3A strength and overall 2A strength is NOT equal to each classes' TOP 20.

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Of the common-opponents matchups, none of the teams appear to have a clear edge.

With the exception of Fleming Co., I agree. I'm not sure if I'm a believer in "common opponent" style debate points, anyway, westsider.

There's just too many factors that will affect point spread vs. common opponents - did they play one team early and another late?, was one team or the other injured during one of the games?, was there some kind of "revenge" factor going on encouraging a team to run up the score?, is the coach of one of the teams better at running in his second string?

You see what I mean?

Originally posted by Sportsfan33

I did not say that it would be 1 vs 1, 2 vs 2, and so on. I just said they would win 9 or 10 games. The top team from 3A should be able to beat the top team in 2A. If you include the top twenty in both classes, they can be pretty close. Class 3A and 1A were very top heavy. The point was that 2A deserved some respect from top to bottom as the better class over 1A. It was actually closer to 3A than people gave it credit for.

Almost EXACTLY my sentiments!!

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So the actual results and scores of what 2A teams played what 1A teams doesn't matter????

Sure they do. I'm just not prepared to accept your conclusions as to what the outcome of those games mean....To me it would just be more subjective detritus.

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guru.... Is there a link to the final Cantrall ratings of 2002??

Seeing Leslie Co. ranked 10th in 2A is a really bad testament to the Litkenhaus ratings.

Give me a list of every one those games and I will tell you if 2A is better than 1A.

Sorry, buddy, but that's in your own mind and for your own edification only. YOU "thinking" one teams better than another doesn't move me one whit.

And tell me what you mean by "Better".

I used the word "OVERALL"... That means ALL, not top 5, top 10, etc. It means 2A's 54 teams vs. 1A's 45 teams in 2002.

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guru,

Maybe the discussion of the numbers theScribe posts will carry this thread all the way through opening day... LOL... Sounds like fun to me!!

Why does any class deserve "the benefit of the doubt?" ... 2A is relatively weaker than it should be...

How do you come to that conclusion?

The analysis only becomes more accurate if the larger sample is RANDOM which 2A games against selected opposition is not.

True, it isn't a random sampling because the coaches set the matchups before the season. 2A played a total of 190 games vs. opponents of other class (1A, 3A, 4A). There were 54 2A teams. That's a lot of data to discount because you claim it's contrived, ie, top 2A teams only played and beat lesser 1A, 3A, and 4A teams.

I'm not claiming 2A is better than 3A or 4A. I'm claiming 2A is OVERALL better than 1A, and to this point, I'm the only one that's used some sort of numerical analysis in attempting to prove it (even if you think my evidence is very weak).

password...

Enough already....I understand your point. How many times do I have to say that?

I think won/loss means more than "NOTHING", especially with a sample of games as large as we're talking (EVERY out of class game). It's a sample much, much larger than the number of teams in your examples. The bigger the number in a statistical sample, the more accurate the analysis becomes.

But YES, for the most part I agree... Who played whom is DEFINATELY a BIG factor of the equation to determine a power rating.

The whole idea behind the so called "power ratings", both Cantrall and Massey, is to INCLUDE THAT FACTOR into their evaluations. That's exactly the approach westsider took when he compared Breathitt Co. and Mayfield. I don't know how accurate ANY of this number stuff is (LOL, who does?), but it makes logical sense and is more neutral than a subjective evaluation.

You can't legitimately talk about scheduling differences as being a factor between two teams or, in this case, groups of teams ALREADY evaluated on the basis of a legitimate "power rating".

I'll throw my hands up (in disgust) if someone claims "scheduling differences" once theScribe posts the results of his number crunching.

:creepy: :scared:

LOL... Would you have to use the term "push comes to shove" if the question dealt with 2A vs 3A strength?

Why not give 2A the same benefit of the doubt 4A gets over 3A, and 3A gets over 2A ??

Hopefully, theScribe's numbers will enlighten us further... LOL, or at least keep us entertained a while longer.

westsider...

You surprise me. I agreed with your numbers, NOW you're telling me they're NO GOOD??

I know power ratings aren't worth much (I voted that way in THAT poll). I also know any of this stuff we're doing wouldn't mean a hill of beans compared to a face to face Breathitt Co-Mayfield meeting. But that never happened. The number crunching is all we have to make a "best guess" of how that game might have gone.

Guys, I'm taking this no more serious than the rest of you. But something objective will always make for a more valid point. IMO, westsider, you did a great job of that on your earlier post. Now, if you could only bring yourself to agree on your OWN conclusion....

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Let me make the issue more generic, since no one can agree on particulars...

No one seems to doubt 4A is stronger than 3A. No one seems to doubt 3A is stronger than 2A. But for some reason fully HALF of folks responding to the poll believe 2A is weaker than 1A.

What evidence there is, weak though it's regarded, indicates the overall strength of 2A is actually closer to 3A than 1A. There's just no good non-subjective evidence to back the opposite perception...

I even started another thread asking why this phenomenon occurs.

While the thread is about 2A and not "mountain" football, 2A's best football is here. As I'm seeing it, if it ain't in the numbers, it only leaves the kind of prejudicial attitudes "paranoid" EKYians claim exists. Personally, I don't want to believe that. This poll sure doesn't speak well, though.

Guys, I hear you...

Here's the problem... If records and power ratings (I'm not a huge fan either) can be selectively ignored as having ANY creedence, discussions on this board could easily become something to the effect:

(example ONLY)

"My team is better because we beat Tilghman and Bowling Green, and you KNOW how good they always are. You only beat Belfry and Rockcastle Co. - they haven't even won a state title!!

That's just it ....the numbers do not clearly show superior teams in 2A.

You say that after Scribe's link that showed 2A had a better record than 1A head to head, vs. 3A, and vs. 4A?!? I'm talking overall, not "top X teams". Look at it yourself (thanks to The Scribe!):

http://www.bluegrasspreps.com/showt...&threadid=16320

If you won't accept the numbers, there's really not much more to say....

password, this whole thread has been a BLAST!!!

to continue....

For your "college conference" example to work here, one would have to accept your subjective opinion of the two teams schedules.

While Mayfield's opponents were relatively stronger by 10 power points through the season (not quite the Big 12 vs. MAC, IMO), Breathitt Co. rates higher than Mayfield using the SAME FORMULA.

To use your own analogy: Mayfield's schedule may constitute a slightly tougher conference, but Breathitt Co. would get the BCS bid on the committee's point system.

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Have you all noticed how this poll is going? I think it's amazing so many knowledgable football people percieve 1A as the equal to 2A while the numbers CLEARLY show 2A's overall superiority.

Very nicely done, westsider.... I like the way you did that. I'm not a big believer in ratings, but it seems to work in this case. To sum up; Mayfield's opponents rated 10 points better, but Breathitt Co.'s power rating is 2.7 higher.

I'll join the compromise. Maybe we can both say (with our own particular reservations, of course) a 10 game series between Breathitt Co. and Mayfield should go 5-5...??

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I'm not sure where you got the 94-60 and 98-61 records for those teams

I used your numbers, Scribe. I took your total "playing up" opponent's record. I then omitted Mater Dei's record from the Mayfield total because they were 2A size. I didn't figure it OUGHT to count when when all of Breathitt's 2A opponents were ignored. If you acknowledge 2A is the tougher class, it struck me as unfair to count as "even" Breathitt's eleven 2A wins vs. Mayfield's nine 1A wins.

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So, in Green Co., eh?? nice.... Gotta love them country names...

Mayfield played six opponents in a higher class than them.

First off, Mayfield played FIVE opponents higher in class (unless your earlier numbers were wrong). ONE of those you're counting is a 2A opponent. I'm not sure how this argues for a "slight Mayfield advantage" when we're trying to do a head-to-head comparison.

I'll acquiesce to your using the 2A opponent if you'll recognize that 2A was superior to 1A.

-otherwise- (you can't have it both ways )

That leaves Mayfield with FOUR opponents vs. 3A and 4A, in which the opponents went 94-60 (0.610), whereas Breathitt Co.'s 3A and 4A opponents were 98-61 (0.616).

I see NO ADVANTAGE whatsoever to Mayfield in this number crunching... LOL, the two teams are within 0.006 on opponents' winning %, with BREATHITT CO. having the very slight advantage.

BTW.... Where is "Black Gnat"????

scribe said:

"I think it proves that 1A teams are playing up more, just playing some of the weaker 3A schools."

Up more than 2A??... that's not what your numbers said.

Your linked post said "Class A teams were 22-21 against Class 3A, while Class 2A was 37-24 against Class 3A." and "Class A teams were a surprising 8-10 against 4A teams. Class 2A was 18-8 against 4A schools."

By my count 1A played 61 games vs. 3A and 4A, while 2A played 87 games vs. 3A and 4A. In that comparison, 1A went 30-31 (0.492) vs. 3A and 4A, while 2A went 55-32 (0.632). This argues rather strongly for 2A.

LOL, the only way your statement holds true is to give 1A credit for playing "up" vs. 2A.

Of course, if you do that you've ALREADY answered the question the thread's subject asks with a "2A was stronger"....

"They never played one."

I think you're DEAD WRONG, westsider... Personally, I think they beat THREE quality teams in the playoffs and ONE on a hot run.

Although I give the edge to Mayfield, I think Russell would have given the Cardinals all they wanted last year. You really ought not underestimate Russell because of ONE bad game vs. Ashland. Losing to Portsmouth West (OH) was NO dishonor at all. Portsmouth W. vs. Ironton has gone to Portsmouth W. the last few years.

Evaluating a team based on ONE particular bad game is really weak. It could lead someone into thinking Boyle Co. wasn't what they are.

I would think a better debate would be whether 2A is better OVERALL than 3A. Look at the contents of Scribe's link on his earlier post.

In judging from those numbers, 1A is EVEN with 3A. 2A won more vs. 3A by a pretty wide margin.

I realize those numbers don't say who played who and therefore don't tell the whole story, but it does lend some creedance to 2A's level of play.

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I think breathitt fan was referring Breathitt's OFFENSE being able to compete with Trinity and Male.

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Scribe, I think Breathitt would take 7 of 10 vs. Mayfield on a neutral field.

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Why does everyone seem to think it's such a detractor for Breathitt in having such a close game with Russell?? At the end of the year the Red Devils defense was comparable to ANYONE else's in 1A and 2A (including Mayfield, IMO) - at about 2 notches below Boyle Co.. Russell's offense, though, wasn't that good. They LIVED off turnovers generated by that defense. The Breathitt Co QB had poor game (like Schott and Wera) in the first 3 quarters because of it, BUT he managed to put things back together in the 4th. The Russell offense just wasn't good enough to keep the ball and hold the lead.

That's some nice work, Scribe !! Thanks for linking to your post...

Right now, after reading only once, the only thing that really jumps out at me is the discrepancy of east vs. west 3A teams playing 4A schools. That's easily explained. There are VERY FEW 4A schools east of Winchester - hence, the mountain 3A teams have a difficult time setting up games with larger schools.

It's nice to see that the virtually all of 2A's best record vs. other classes came against 3A and 4A.

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EKU... I apologize earlier for my saying you thought 2A's top 5 was better than 1A's. I made an assumption I shouldn't have.

You know, this can go back and forth all summer....

The bottom line is... westsider and password believe 1A's top 5 was superior, EKU_05 and I think 2A's top 5 was better.

Arguments can be made both ways with particular "examples". But you know what?? None of them is gonna matter. While discussing it is fun, after a while one feels like they're trying to run his head into a wall.

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I will say, though, I don't see how EKU's believing Breathitt Co. could score 28 on Mayfield is unreasonable. He made the assertion Breathitt had the third best offense in the state, regardless of class. I saw no refutation of that assertion. If Hoptown scored 16 and PT scored 22 on Mayfield, then why is EKU's belief hard to swallow?? Do you really believe these two teams' offense was anywhere close Breathitt Co.'s??

The top 3 of 1A is reasonably competitive with the top 3 of 2A, but then, 1A's top 3 is also reasonably competitive vs 3A!!

But, the question doesn't say top 3, top 5, top 10, etc...

It asks which is stronger, PERIOD.

IMO, 2A top to bottom was MUCH better than 1A. 2A, IMO last year, was a lot closer to the strength of 3A than 1A.

I agree numbers are an advantage. I also agree with the statement that without coaching, tradition, and support by parents/alumni the numbers advantage becomes moot.

The statement regarding coaching stated earlier I disagree with. I don't believe that Trinity's coaches are superior and could win at ANY program. I do think they're really GOOD coaches. Sometimes a group of players just come along and make their coaches look like geniuses. I don't think the coaches are any better than those at Boyle, Mayfield, Highlands, Male, etc.. Obviously, schools like the ones I mentioned do have an advantage with attracting the better coaches, though. Those schools' respective boosters will create all kinds of incentives to attract coaching talent in addition to having a support/tradition system already in place. None of this is wrong, it just reflects the desire of community to have a championship caliber program.

The ultimate answer to "why are they so good?" is fairly obvious to me, at least. It's a combination of ALL the ingredients, just like in cooking. It takes everything in the right combination: volume of quality athletes (the "numbers"), fan support, coaching, leadership, devotion of the players, etc.

Maybe we can all agree to that?

"Sorry but I find overkill humorous, when I see guys taking these huge guns with them hunting when all they need is a 22 or a bow I think it is funny. I was seeing if anyone else felt the same way. Sorry if I offended you, I was just teaseing. I prefer a remington 22."

Ram95... I assume you're not using that .22 to deer hunt. Unless the regulations have changed, that's illegal. Shooting a deer with a gun like that makes for a deer that dies later of infection.

"huge" guns, in case you didn't know, are used for deer to make a quick, clean kill.

:sssh:

It is a blast hunting squirrels with a .22, though. It's a good way to sharpen your shooting skills, too.

I LOVE frog legs !!

Ya gotta be careful not to overcook them or they get tough, though...

You ain't livin' if you've never had a big mess of frog legs...course, bullfrogs are in that gray zone between "fish" and "game".. LOL

Deer loin is really great on the grill ... just don't overcook it!

-tip-

If you've never tried it, get some "Montreal Steak Seasoning" and put in on your loin slices after brushing with a little olive oil before grilling. Cook them on high heat for no more than a minute a side. I call them "little pieces of heaven" !!

The most perfect eating fish are channel cats 12"-20"....

Add a big piece of a sweet onion, some cole slaw, and cornbread...... lord, I'm hungry..... hush puppies are good in place of cornbread only if they're done right.

Next on the scale for me are bluegill, redeye (rock bass), crappy, slot size bass, and smelt (had them up north once, they were good!).