HoosierEagle

For Johson Central, it has been Paintsville. However, I think next season they would trade a loss in the Apple Bowl for a win over Ashland. Ashland will be tough next season, and a win over them will show that the Golden Eagles have returned to the level they reached in Bill Musick's last season.

I don't think that there is a built-in bias in the AP polls, but there are many more flaws in the system than in BGP's rankings process. IMO, they are as follows: 1. Poor or erratic participation - As others have pointed out, if the eligible voters in a particular geographic area elect not to vote, the results are potentially skewed. 2. "Homerism" - All of us have seen a team that no "reasonable" person would vote No. 1 and few, if any would vote No. 10, get a No. 1 vote. I think occasionally, some joker wants to make some kind of point by not voting for the obvious No. 1 team. 3. Eligible vs. "qualified" - I assume that there is no guarantee that the AP voters even want to participate. It is possible that some voters are assigned the job, whether they like it or not. 4. Isolation - The biggest disadvantage that AP voters have compared to the BGP team that puts together the rankings is that AP voters rarely get to discuss their votes before casting them. What you get is the independent votes of 9 to 15 voters, with none of them accountable to the other voters. BGP does not use a strict voting system per se. Moderators may vote, but voting is used more like it is by a jury. Unless there is unanymnity, the voting starts the process. In the case of the AP, the vote is the process. There is no discussion either before or after votes are cast, and no chance for voters to change their votes if they see realize they made a blunder. (If I am wrong about how the BGP football rankings are prepared, I am sure one of the moderators will correct the record, but the basketball rankings were prepared as I have described the process.) Although I questioned some of the BGP preseason rankings on the basis of what I see as a NKY bias, the BGP process is far, far better than the process the AP uses. If the NKY bias that I have suggested exists, it will slowly dissipate as the season rolls along. Besides being accountable to each other and theguru, the BGP voters have to face vocal eastern Kentucky critics ever day.:lol: The problems faced by the AP voters will persist into the playoff season.

Scribe, As usual, you did a nice job analyzing and presenting the data. A couple of things that I don't think you addressed, however, is the sheer magnitude of the discrepancy between the two systems in the cases of both Lloyd and Bellvue, and the fact that BGP ranks all of the NKY teams at either the same rank (Highlands), or higher. By mid-season, I expect the BGP ranks and those in the AP to be very similar, but where differences remain, the BGP numbers will be better thought out and a more accurate predictor of future games. It's in the rankings for the preseason and first few weeks of the season where I believe a northern Kentucky bias is apparent in the BGP rankings. However, although the bar is set at different heights for early season entry into the top 10, BGP does recognize deserving teams as they prove themselves on the field during the season, regardless of their geographic locations. BTW, I have an alternate take on the following observation: Two of the three teams with the biggest 'BGP bias' when compared to the AP poll are from northern Kentucky, Lloyd and Bellvue. Furthermore, four of the nine teams with the biggest 'BGP bias' hail from northern Kentucky (vs. only 3 CKY teams). Both statements are true, both describe the same set of numbers, and each characterizes the facts in a totally different light. Artists call it perspective and politicians describe it as putting a positive spin on the data. I don't think the data indicates more of a BGP central Kentucky bias at all, but I guess it all depends on the conclusion that one wants to reach.

If you can convince a majority of the good people of Richmond and Madison County that they live in eastern Kentucky, then I will hop on your bandwagon, Oxnard. I guess where you draw that elusive boundary that separates eastern Kentucky from central Kentucky depends on how badly you want to make a point (you do seem pretty desperate to make your point). No offense to Madison Countians, but I just have a hard time thinking of them as mountain folk. I am surprised that you have not mentioned that Richmond is home to Eastern Kentucky University. Surely politicians would not have built a university for eastern Kentuckians and located it in central Kentucky. Would they?:lol: BTW, wouldn't designating Ft. Thomas as a part of eastern Kentucky make your point even better? They have hills (i.e., small mountains), the school is located almost as far east as Madison Central, and the people of Ft. Thomas were so proud of their mountains that they named their school "Highlands." Besides, giving up Highlands to eastern Kentucky would still leave northern Kentucky with plenty of quality high school football teams.

You can consider Madison Central an eastern Kentucky team if you want, but I don't think you will find many people who will agree with you. On the other hand, if Richmond is far enough "east" for Madison Central to be considered an eastern Kentucky team, then if we move the dividing line just a few miles west, we could claim most of those good NKY teams as eastern Kentucky teams as well.

My exclusion of 4A in the comparison is because neither EKY or NKY is currently represented in the AP poll. There were no 4A teams to list, so I didn't list any. If you see that as an inconsistency, then run with it. At no time have I ever accused the BGP voters of consciously tilting the rankings in favor of the NKY teams. I know how many hours of work it takes to put together the BGP Rankings, and I enjoy discussing the results.

Watusi, Excellent point about Sheldon Clark. I thought they warranted a top 3 preseason rank, but you are correct in pointing out that they were not ranked lower because of a NKY bias. I think we need to have the benefit of a little more hindsight to understand how bad the Cards loss to Lawrence County was, and how unimpressive the win over Bourbon was. I suspect that Lawrence County will make a lot of good teams look pretty bad this season. At the risk of locking up the Dead Horse Award (if the nag is not already mine), I have summarized the BGP rankings' favorable treatment of the NKY teams below. I made the comparison because it has always seemed to me that there has been a northern Kentucky "flavor" to the rankings. Here are the totals for all the NKY teams in BGP, with the rank differential for each: Class A Beechwood +1 Covington Holy Cross +3 Bellvue +11 Class AA Lloyd +10 Class AAA Highlands SAME Covington Catholic +4 By my count, BGP has 5 out of 6 teams ranked higher than the AP, and one team ranked the same. More telling, IMO, is the fact that the 6 NKY teams are ranked 29 places higher on BGP than in the AP polls, a whopping average of nearly 5 places per team. I thought the difference was interesting. Maybe the difference is, as Oldbird asserted, simply due to the fact that the AP voters don't know good football teams when they see them. If that is the reason for the difference, the NKY teams seem to be getting badly shortchanged by the AP.

Excellent post. The point that I was trying to make to Oldbird about Sheldon Clark is that they were a young team and gave Bell County a pretty good playoff game on the road. Their returning players, plus their drop to 2A this season should have placed them a little higher in the BGP preseason rankings. I am glad to see Bell County off to such a good start. I still don't know what the halftime score was for last season's match-up between Bell County and Sheldon Clark, but Coach Hilton was either being a very gracious winner, or he thought the Cards had put up a good fight. While Ashland cruised in the first round, Bell County drew a tougher assignment. The Bobcats got past Sheldon Clark 29-21 after holding a 22-point lead with less than six minutes remaining. "We had more of a rough time,'' Hilton said. "Their quarterback (Nathan Moore) came back from an injury. We didn't expect him to play, but they had him wearing a different number. He was 16-for-22 passing and had several nice runs.'' My recollection is that Sheldon Clark held their own for a half, with Bell County dominating the third and most of the fourth quarter, before the Cards rallied to close the gap late. Maybe Bell County was never in any serious trouble in the game, but I thought that Nathan Moore and the junior-dominated Cards put up a respectable fight. I didn't realize that the Bell County game was Moore's first game back after being sidelined with a fracture.

Do you recall the halftime score? My recollection is that Sheldon Clark remained within striking distance for much of the game before being worn down by a very physical Bell County team.

Oldbird, Your response does not accurately reflect my posts at all. Let me clarify for you. First, wins and losses are not more important strength of schedule. You raised the subject of CovCath's games against Dixie and DeSales, not me. CovCath was dominated in both cases. I don't think getting pummelled by superior teams necessarily means that the loser has a stellar team. Do you? Next, when you say that "that is probably why you like the AP..." you are attempting to attribute a sentiment to me that I don't hold. If you want to reread my posts carefully, you will see nothing in them that is complimentary about the AP's football polls. In case you don't get that after another read, then please rest assured, given the choice between the BGP ranking and the AP poll, I would take the BGP poll every time. That does not mean that there is no regional bias in the BGP rankings, or that the process cannot be improved. You apparently missed the fact that Lawrence County played most of the season saddled with serious injuries to key players. Evidently you also don't believe that having talented players like Short and Storts sit out most of last season, while some inexperienced younger players were pressed into service as starters, should have a positive impact on this season's team. I disagree. Had Lawrence County been healthy last season, I would agree that a 7-3 record was pretty unimpressive. Had the Bulldogs suffered heavy graduation losses after last season, I would agree that they did not deserve to be ranked in this year's preseason rankings. Instead, Lawrence County is returning a much deeper and experienced team than would have been the case had Short, Stort, and the other starters been healthy for a full season. I don't think that factor was given sufficient weight in your preseason rankings. Sorry, but I don't see how you could draw this conclusion. I wasted my time writing pages if my entire argument is summarized in the quote above. Maybe you just skimmed over the other points that I made. Russell was unranked in last year's preseason rankings, and remain so for several weeks into last season. I was nearly alone in calling for Russell to be ranked after they nearly beat Ashland Blazer on the road. I may be mistaken, but I don't think the Red Devils cracked the top 10 until after they beat Mason County the first time, and then they barely broke in. I think after losing to a tough Portsmouth West team at home, they may have actually dropped. As the season wears on, it becomes much easier to separate the wheat from the chaf. The fact that Russell was ranked where they deserved by the end of the year does nothing to dispel the perception that the early rankings seem to contain some regional bias. See notes above. The signs were there, and had the Bulldogs had Boone County addresses, they would have been touted as a contender. I am not saying that the Bulldogs will win a state title this season, but if they go deep in the playoffs this season, it should not come as a shock either. Thank you for at least partially conceding one point to me. The Cards may not have the team speed to go all the way, but I still expect them to be a top contender at the end of the season. They are playing a pretty decent schedule, so they may enter the playoffs with a worse record than last season, but they should be a better team by year's end. I don't really support a team (in Kentucky), at least not enough to qualify as anybody's fan. I was dissatisfied with my sons' experience at Johnson Central, and my youngest son is playing for a 4A team in central Indiana this season. I would like to see the Golden Eagles turn things around for the kids' sake, but I doubt that I will ever spend money on a ticket to watch another of their games. So, if you have me pegged as a rabid Bulldog or SC Cardinal fan, you are very mistaken. I just like to see teams and players get all the recognition they deserve. I believe that being in the BGP Top 10 during the season is an honor, and I was just disappointed to see a couple of very deserving teams (IMO) from eastern Kentucky left out at the onset of the season. I have no hidden agenda, although I am sure that I have my share of personal biases. I would not be human if I didn't.

I feel your pain.:lol: It is hard to argue with the 1A rankings, because the NKY 1A teams, along with Danville and Mayfield usually play at another level than the rest of the state. Beyond those teams, there is a lot of parity around the state, and most 1A teams do not travel very far to play. That makes it difficult to know what to do with a (non-Mayfield) WKY 1A team and an EKY team having similar records. I sympathize with anybody trying to rank the 6-10 1A teams.

I don't put much store in scrimmages. I witnessed Johnson Central outplay Belfry twice (badly in one case), then watched Belfry have good seasons, while JC's program spun out of control. Belfry would have crushed them by mid-season in both cases. I also watched JC play even with Holmes' first team a couple of years ago. Had they played a regular midseason game, it would have been a laugher. I agree that Sheldon Clark has stumbled out of the gate. I have heard from people who have seen them play that they may lack the team speed to carry them to a regional title. Time will tell, but I think last year's strong performance in 3A and the number of returning seniors should have earned them a lofty preseason ranking. If 2A is actually as weak as many people believe this season, I can't imagine that SC will not be a top 3 or top 5 team at the end of the season. Lawrence County is loaded, and the win over the Cards is a good indication of the Bulldogs' strength. Sheldon Clark might have taken the Bourbon County for granted, but there is no way Matney's team was looking past the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs should also roll over a good Belfry team, but there are few easy wins for visitors to Pond Creek:D

When it comes to football knowledge, I will be the first to admit that I am not in the same league as the BGP team that puts together the rankings. I will also never argue that EKY football teams are as a rule, better than NKY teams. The quality of football on a year-in-year-out basis is not even close. However, northern Kentucky football did not seem to tower over the eastern part of the state last season in either 2A or 3A. On the contrary, Rockcastle's domination of Catholic, Mason's blowout of Lloyd, and the strong showings by Russell, Belfry, and Breathitt indicated to me that last season was not a vintage year for NKY football. I thought the results of last season suggested that the gap has closed substantially between NKY and EKY football in 3A, and that the chasm between EKY and NKY in 2A remains deep and wide. The preseason BGP rankings made me wonder if some folks don't still have calendars hanging on their walls from the 90's.

OB, Seriously, the results that you listed do not really help your case. Dixie shut out CovCath 28-0, DeSales beat them 34-6 in a game that was not nearly that close, and despite what everybody thought about its strength, Lexington Catholic fell to a Highlands team that in turn was hammered by Rockcastle. If anything, last season's results suggested that Rockcastle might have emerged from a tougher region than anybody understood going into last season. I remember noting in the middle of last season that Covington Catholic had proven that they could take a beating, but did they actually upset anybody last season? As for Lloyd, I don't think many Jugs fans expected the season to end on the short end of a blowout loss (49-21) against a team that would fall to Russell twice. I also remember some of my NKY friends downplaying Russell's tough losses to Ashland and Portsmouth West, as well as its first win over Mason County, before belatedly moving them near the top of the 2A rankings. Another thing that I remember is that a young Sheldon Clark team battled Bell County down to the wire on the road before losing 29-21 and finishing 7-3. I remember that Sheldon Clark's other losses were a double-overtime setback to a then-healthy Lawrence County team, and a loss at Boyd County in a game that the Card's starting QB played with a fracture most of the game. With the core of that SC team returning for its senior season, I could not help noticing how little value BGP voters placed on the Lawrence County Bulldogs 31-0 win over them last week. Sheldon Clark and Lawrence County may turn out to be huge disappointments this season. However, headed into this season there was ample reason to believe that both would contend for state titles this year. The bar just seems to be set a little higher for EKY teams to enter the top echelon of the rankings than it is for NKY teams such as Highlands, CC, and Lloyd.

Did you bother to compare the AP poll to the BGP rankings, OB? If so, did you find even a single instance where BGP ranked a NKY team lower than the AP? I had not seen the AP poll, I just took a wild guess that BGP would have picked NKY teams higher early in the season, and I was right. If the NKY bias is a product of my own mind, maybe I am psychic. Move over Miss Cleo!:lol:

Watusi, You will get no argument from me about the AP poll. There is no comparison between the BGP and AP poll when it comes to the football expertise of the voters. I used the AP poll to test my theory because there is not much else available this time of year. If you could conduct a poll and force every football coach in the state to respond, I suspect that you would see much the same result. I also believe that good officials honestly try their best to call all games fairly, but a home field advantage is still a fact of life. Guru has often said that computer rankings all must begin with a "magic number," but human rankings have their own built-in flaws. IMO, regional bias, especially in the pre- and early season is the BGP's Achilles heel. (But it is still the best game in town.) I just don't know how else to explain how Covington Catholic and Lloyd soared to such lofty heights in the polls so quickly, after both posted decent, but disappointing campaigns a year ago. ("Dissapointing" in the fact that both had very high expectations in the preseason and expected to contend for a state title, but neither were considered real threats to win titles as they entered the playoffs.)

Agreed. But if you are just a little bit curious why at least a significant minority believe that a NKY bias exists, try this exercise: Compare the current AP poll to the current BGP poll. Mark the NKY teams. For each place that BGP has a NKY team ranked higher than AP, award a point. For each place that an NKY team that is ranked lower, award a negative point. (For some BGP teams, you will need to extend the AP rankings well beyond a top 10. For example, BGP has Lloyd ranked 6 in AA, but the AP has them pegged at 19, so you would award Lloyd a +13. After going through all of the teams listed in all but 4A rankings (NKY is not represented), count the number of NKY teams ranked higher in the BGP poll than AP, the ones ranked the same, and the teams ranked lower. Now, repeat the same exercise for EKY teams. Then add the NKY points, and finally add the EKY points. I think the results will surprise you. I suspect that you would find a similar trend in last season's early rankings, but I have not researched it. Naturally, as the season wears on, all of the polls and rankings begin converging as "gut feels," "educated guesses," and "informed analyses" give way to head-to-head results, but I think you might agree that there is an apparent early season bias toward the NKY teams. That doesn't mean that the BGP voters are wrong in their assessments (I would not dare defend the AP's record), but I think it does reflect a tendency to give the NKY teams the benefit of the doubt during a period when game results are scarce. Does the NKY's impressive collection of state titles warrant a little extra early season consideration when ranking the teams? Maybe it does, and I mean that sincerely.

I did not mean to imply that any of the voters has an agenda, because I know from my stint as a moderator that they don't. I have great respect for the time, the effort, and the thought that goes into the weekly rankings (and that includes you, Oldbird ). I think it is human nature to rely on personal experience when ranking teams, and in general, the moderators get far more exposure to teams like Covington Catholic and Highlands than to Lawrence County. As for being a "woulda, coulda, shoulda team," that was certainly true several years ago. However, freak injuries like Bryan Short's ruptured (and subsequently removed) spleen does not reflect poorly on the Bulldogs' current coaching staff, nor is there any indication that LC "choked" in big games last season. Lawrence County played in what was perhaps the most balanced 3A district in the state last season, and they managed to compile an 8-3 record, while narrowly missing the playoffs. Along the way, the Bulldogs (I think I am right here) lost two starting quarterbacks during district games. Idoubt that many teams playing in such a competitive district could have lost their first and second string QB's in two different district games and made the playoffs. In at least one game, the Bulldogs played without their entire starting backfield. With all of the experienced players Lawrence County has returning from last year's injury-riddled season, I think they deserved a top-10 ranking before they stepped on the field this year. Had the same circumstances surrounded Covington Catholic, or one of the other teams more familiar to BGP voters, I think that they would have debuted high in the rankings. Maybe I am expecting too much of Lawrence County, but I honestly don't see how Covington Catholic's 6-6 campaign rated a #4 preseason ranking, while LC has something to "prove," before they are given serious consideration. The "they are losing, but they have played a tough schedule" refrain sounds a lot like the discussions we had during the first half of last season. Granted, the Colonels' performanc vs. St. X was very impressive in light of the Trinity game, but I think it's anybody's guess what kind of season Boone County is going to have.

Nobody in there right mind would dispute the difficulty of last year's Covington Catholic schedule. I think that the schedule was so strong that it made building confidence and momentumn going into the playoffs virtually impossible. However, the fact remains that the teams that CovCath lost to were much stronger than the teams that it beat. Had the Colonels recorded an upset or two last season against some of the stronger teams on its schedule, then I think CovCath would have a better case for its lofty preseason ranking. But the fact is, they beat the teams that they were expected to beat, lost to teams that they were expected to lose to, and lost a toss-up or two for good measure. Tradition and past performance should always be considered when ranking teams, but recent history should be more heavily weighted than ancient history. Looking at last season's performance and this season's early season results, I don't see where Covington Catholic or Mason County should be given a nod over the Bulldogs. That doesn't mean that both teams won't have better seasons, but I just can't see dismissing Lawrence County's chances on the basis of the available facts.

I meant no disrespect to Mason County. The Royals obviously have a talented, well coached team. However, I think had Lawrence County remained reasonably healthy last season, they would have won the district, and I think that they will be even better this season than last year's "healthy" team would have been. Mason County's athleticism will give them a chance to win any game they play this season, but they will need to avoid a rash of turnovers and hope for good weather to get through the district and season undefeated.

I don't know how good Bourbon County is, but any game against an eastern Kentucky team is a big one for Chuke Williams. I know that Lawrence County is loaded, and unless it loses Short and/or Storts again this season to injuries, they should be favored to win their district until somebody beats them. The perception among many eastern Kentucky BGP'ers that northern Kentucky teams begin the season with "bonus points" in the BGP poll is not totally without merit. After a 6-6 campaign, one would have thought that Covington Catholic might have something to prove coming into this season. Yet, the Colonels were awarded for last year's disappointing campaign with a lofty preseason ranking. I am not saying that CovCath did not deserve its ranking, based on returning talent. What I am saying that there often seems to be a presumption of excellence for NKY teams, and a presumption of mediocrity for EKY teams, even in the face of contradictary evidence. Covington Catholic is now 0-2, and I expect that they will remain in the top 10. Lawrence County is 2-0, coming off of an 8-3 season in which they failed to make the playoffs, but loaded with experience, and they will be lucky to sneak in at No. 10. In defending Lawrence County not getting taken more seriously, I often see references made to the Bulldog teams of several years ago that racked up huge margins of victories but could not stop good teams from scoring in the playoffs. The fact that Chuke Williams is coaching Bourbon County, and not Lawrence County does not seem to matter to many voters. Russell received the same lack of respect last season. When the Red Devils gave Ashland an early season scare at Putnam Stadium, many attributed it to the fact that Ashland wasn't that good. When Russell beat Mason County the first time, many people attributed it to the weather that slowed down the high powered Royal offense. My point is, top 10 teams, and even championship caliber teams do arise from all parts of the state, and in all classes except 4A. Even if you do not consider Bourbon County a quality team, a narrow opening game win following a 2-1/2 or 3 hour bus trip does not necessarily mean Sheldon Clark is not a "good" team. Neither does a lopsided loss to a deep, experienced 3A Lawrence County team. When Mason County struggles or even loses a game or two in the district, I hope that you will consider the possibility that its district may be a bit stronger than you thought, and not conclude that you overrated Mason County's strength.

Mason County has played what has turned out to be a very weak schedule so far, with Breathitt suffering huge graduation losses. Unless you thought they were going to be weak, I don't see how they could have "proven" themselves already, regardless of their margins of victory. Lawrence County did much more to prove its worth by thrashing a good Sheldon Clark team - a team that had taken it into overtime last season. Had it not been for an amazing number of injuries to key players last season, Lawrence would have won its district. Most of those players are back, most notably Short and Storts, and the injuries gave a lot of young kids quality PT. Mason is talented and very well coached and will be a contender in the district and region. But IMO, Lawrence is the team to beat in the district. I think Mason is getting way too much mileage out of its upset of Rockcastle last season. I know that I am part of a small minority who hold this opinion, but hey, I have been here before. I thought Russell was the team to beat in Mason's district last year. Lawrence County has a very favorable schedule, and they have Mason County, the Man Hillbillies, Ashland, Boyd County, Prestonsburg, etc. all at home. Unless they get caught napping, the Bulldogs should not lose any of its road games. An undefeated regular season is not out of the question for LC.

Probably because they feel that they are already "donating" pretty heavily to their alma maters, whether they like it or not.

I think comparing the regions of Kentucky is a case of comparing apples and oranges. First of all, as has already been mentioned, there are very few 4A schools in eastern Kentucky, and no schools that can be considered large by Lexington/Louisville standards. It should be no surprise that the eastern part of the state cannot compete in 4A. Next, the population density in the eastern part of the state is much lower, and the poverty rate much higher than the rest of the state. That means that many potentially great athletes do not get involved in sports because of transportation problems, or the need to begin working part time as soon as possible in order to help support themselves and/or their families. An enrollment of 600 students in an affluent Covington suburb contains more potential, and available athletes than a similar sized school in eastern Kentucky. Finally, because of the first two factors, the good teams in the east usually end up playing a weaker schedule than their counterparts in the Golden Triangle, and the Bowling Green and Paducah areas do. For non-district games, scheduling good teams to travel east is difficult, and travel expenses are not insignificant when a mountain team travels westward to play good competition. Considering the factors working against mountain teams, I think eastern Kentucky teams do a very good job competing with other areas of the state. For example, the east should dominate Class 2-A next season, and I believe that the area will also have several 3-A teams who could be factors in the playoffs again. I think certain schools are too eager to credit superior coaching, superior athletes, superiod teachers, etc. for successful academic and athletic programs, while ignoring the advantages that their school's location and demographics provide.

I am not sure of the exact timing of the Fayette Co. boycott, but Lexington Catholic has grown from an All "A" school to a 3-A football power during the boycott. I have not hear anybody complaining that the public schools getting more than their share of good athletes at LexCath's expense, but I have heard many, many complaints from the public school supporters. If this is what a successful boycott looks like, what would a failure look like?:confused: A boycott in Louisville will hurt smaller private schools, but being located on the Indiana border means that the effect even on small schools will be muted. There are many Indiana schools nearby that are not constrained by requirements to play district games. My guess is that Dupont Manual's decision not to join the informal boycott is a reflection of the fact that their focus is providing a good education. IMO, Manual may provide the best high school education available in the state, private or public. The administrators at Manual are to be commended for recognizing that flying a white flag in front of the school will not attract good students or good athletes.