Pacman69

West Carter won this first matchup 58-7. I expect more of the same this week. West Carter runs the clock again!

13 hours ago, nikeman49 said:

KCC is way below average and Breathitt Co will have a running clock, Breathitt Co has once again played a very weak schedule and will be eliminated soon after the KCC game.

I agree. If they win the district, they will be hammered in the region championship by Beechwood.

If Sheron plays, Somerset runs the clock. If not, Somerset by single digits.

This looks to be the best game in all of 2A for the opening round! Really interested to see who will come out on top.

34 minutes ago, BrosefStalin said:

MARQUEE MATCHUP - #7 Danville vs. #5 Somerset - GAME OF THE WEEK

A NOTCH BELOW - #16 Caldwell vs. #9 Murray - UPSET POTENTIAL

ONE MORE NOTCH BELOW - 

#21 Todd County Central #6 Hancock Co 

#27 Knott Co. Central vs. #12 Breathitt Co. 

RUNNING CLOCK - 

#29 Prestonsburg vs. #2 West Carter

#20 Washington Co. vs. #1 Lexington Christian 

#37 Ballard vs. #3 Mayfield

SELECTIONS - Somerset; Murray; Hancock Co; Breathitt Co; West Carter; LCA; Mayfield

Only possible upset I see is Caldwell Co., but as much as I like Coach Barnes and the Tigers, I think they keep it close, but get edged late. 

 

 

I expect Somerset to put another running clock on Danville. I’d also put Breathitt and KCC under the running clock category but I could be wrong. From what I’ve heard about KCC, they’re below average.

A “true” champion to me is always up for debate. The best team doesn’t always win in a normal year so I’m sure that will be the case during this postseason as well.

1 hour ago, gchs_uk9 said:

Because I'd argue the district should be decided on games played throughout the regular season. Deciding a football district champion during the postseason has only happened three times in KHSAA history - 2006, 2007, last year, and now this year.

Determining it in the playoffs goes with every other sport in Kentucky so that’s my favorite part about it. It also eliminates having a district champion tie breaker.

4 minutes ago, gchs_uk9 said:

And they'll say its the same format as basketball but they are completely different sports. Basketball is designed to be played with quick turnarounds. District and region tournaments often have upsets because teams are similar in ability and are familiar with each other. Football is played once a week and you have a good idea of who will win and lose before the game is played - at least until the later rounds of the postseason. There's no need a 1 and 4 seed to play a regular season game in Week 9 then play again in the first round of the playoffs. At least playing opposite districts you're facing a new opponent - even if you are likely to lose.

Why does it matter if you’re playing a different opponent? Typically, your 1 seed is gonna beat your 4 seed anyways. Might as well stay in your district so at least that way you can actually play a true district championship game. 

2 hours ago, Nuke LaLoosh said:

I am not a fan of the inter-district rounds of the playoffs, simply because of what we see here.  #1,3 and 5 are all from the same district, and most people believe LCA and Somerset have a great shot at a title.  The best teams in a class shouldn't have to face each other until at least the regional championship IMO.  It may make for some great first rounds, but then the regionals could be ho hum.  I hope the KHSAA changes this in the very near future.

I am a fan of inter-district play for the first two rounds because it gives a true district champion.

District championships on the Western end should be very competitive!

49 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

Is it still Pikeville the prohibitive favorite in 1A? Which team might be able to upset the Panthers?

Paintsville at full health would be the only team with a chance.

2 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

Yes but the biggest weakness in KHSAA RPI is the too low impact strength of schedule has. This is lengthy but it will explain the weakness of RPI and how strength of schedule is very discounted by RPI. You are most interested in 2A so let's look there, I will use calpreps.com numbers for strength of schedule. In parenthesis is where that SOS ranks in 2A:

1. Lexington Christian Academy. 74357 ................ SOS 13.6  (#1)

2. West Carter .68421.............................................. SOS  -17.8 (#14)

3. Mayfield .67770.................................................... SOS -11.4 (#6)

4. Beechwood .67171.............................................. SOS  2.2 (#3)

5. Somerset .63045 ................................................. SOS  3.2 (#2)

6. Hancock County .62305 ..................................... SOS -16.2 (#9)

7. Danville .60310 .................................................... SOS  1.7 (#4)

8. Middlesboro .59894 ............................................. SOS -27.5 (#26 Yes, that's right #26 in SOS)

9. Murray .59584 ...................................................... SOS -10.6 (#5)

10. Shelby Valley .58927.......................................... SOS -32.2 (#28) 

 

Here are the 2A rankings by SOS:

1. LCA ..............13.6

2. Somerset...... 3.2

3. Beechwood ...2.2

4. Danville ........ 1.7

5. Murray ......... -10.6 (notice, pretty big gap here from #4)

6. Mayfield ...... -11.4

7. Owensboro Cath. ... -12

8. Caldwell Co. .... -13.2

9. Hancock Co. ...... -16.2

9 (T) Newport ....... -16.2

11. Washington Co. ... -17.2

12. Cov. Holy Cross ... -17.4

13. Leslie Co. ............ -17.5

14. West Carter ........ -17.8

I won't list the rest. You can see in the KHSAA RPI top 10 there are big discrepancies in ranking versus SOS. West Carter is #2 in RPI and #14 in SOS. Middlesboro and Shelby Valley are top 10 in the RPI and 26 and 28 respectively in SOS. This is the biggest problem with RPI. Getting wins over bad teams and especially bad teams in the classes above you are overweighted to the detriment of SOS.

When I look at what might happen in a game, I put more weight on SOS than a team's won loss record. Won loss record is important because just playing tough teams doesn't tell us anything either. A team has to get a win over some good teams at some point to prove their standing. I look at a team's won loss record, then I look at who they beat, who they lost to and what the scores were in those games. Here is a recent example. Newport Catholic came into their game against Beechwood undefeated and ranked #5 in 1A. Beechwood had 2 losses going into that game. When I looked at the SOS for those two teams, it was clear to me that Beechwood would blow out New Cath. New Cath had played one of the weakest schedules in the state in getting to their 6-0 record and Beechwood's SOS was strong. So I look at wins and losses but then I adjust up or down based on SOS. I have seen games where I expected a 3-6 team to easily beat a 7-3 team because of the SOS of those teams.

To me, the only issue with the RPI is using the multiplier for wins over teams in bigger classes like you said. Everything else I like. 

8 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

Record is not a factor in RPI winning percentage. If a team wins a game, they multiply 1 by the same game value factor if the team they beat is 0-10 or if the team is 10-0. Record does not matter. The game value factor is based only on what class each team plays in. Here is the factor list for the classes for football:

• 1A = 1.323
• 2A = 1.521
• 3A = 1.749
• 4A = 2.011
• 5A = 2.313
• 6A = 2.660

For a 2A team, you always use 1.521. Then you divide the class factor of the opponent by your class factor. If the 2A team plays a 6A team, divide 2.660 by 1.521 and the game value is 1.748. If the 2A team wins, they multiply that game value by 1 and the winning percentage factor for that win is 1.748. The record of the opponent is not involved in that calculation at all. 

Here is the link to the KHSAA detailed explanation of RPI calculation:

https://khsaa.org/resources/RPI/rpiexample2018fbapb.pdf

If you lose, you get a zero in the winning percentage column.

 

Your win percentage is worth 35%. Your opponents win percentage is worth 35%. Your opponents opponents win percentage is worth 30%. It may not factor into your win percentage, but the record of your opponents is worth just as much.

51 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

First of all, strength of schedule has very little to do with RPI. If you are a 2A team and get wins over 4 winless 6A teams, you would probably have the best RPI in the state. You get a bonus for beating upper class teams and their record is not a factor. So getting wins over upper class teams is much more important than strength of schedule.

I think if you are a Beechwood fan, this is the year you want to play Mayfield. It would be one of the few times in the last 20 years that Beechwood would be favored to win. 

How is their record not a factor?

Beechwood would certainly be favored over Mayfield.

2 minutes ago, BrosefStalin said:

I was wondering about that..how far is it?

Around 5 hours would be my estimate.

11 minutes ago, BrosefStalin said:

I wouldn't count out Middlesboro beating Breathitt in round 2. 

I wouldn’t count it out either. I would still think that would be an upset though. 

4 minutes ago, gbballfan21 said:

I wasn’t aware that they eliminated the cross bracketing once the RPI started. I hope I am wrong because that would be a benefit to Beechwood if they did not have LCA or Somerset in the East.

Having the RPI and Cross Bracket both wouldn’t make sense. Unless there is an upset or covid forfeits, Beechwood will host Breathitt County round 3. 

1 hour ago, gbballfan21 said:

Did they change the cross bracketing because of Covid? District 4 which includes Somerset and LCA was moved to the East this year and district 5 that includes Walton was moved to the West. Once the first 2 rounds are completed then 1-4 in the East play each other and 1-4 in the West play each other. The final four is then seeded 1-4 regardless of East or West alignment with 1 hosting 4 and 2 hosting 3.

If chalk wins out, then Beechwood is at West Carter in Rd 3 and at Mayfield in Rd 4. 

I could be wrong, but I’m pretty certain this is correct.

Are you aware that Kentucky has been using the RPI system since last year? Cross bracketing was last used in the 2018 season.

11 minutes ago, snakesnot_2000 said:

Not having seen West Carter but taking a educated guess, I would say they are not even close to being the 1st or 2nd best team in 2A and I thought that's what the RPI was trying to identify.

West Carter isn’t the 2nd best team in 2A and Mayfield isn’t the 3rd best team. I don’t think the RPI is the best system but it’s what we have to go by for the time being. 

3 minutes ago, snakesnot_2000 said:

I've said all along 1 of 3 teams is going to win the 2A title, LCA, Somerset or Beechwood. But West Carter and Mayfield both got RPI gifts and will gladly take them. Mayfield is extremely tough to beat at War Memorial, so I'm pulling for a Somerset victory but If LCA was to win, I think Mayfield can handle West Carter at their place.

I agree it will be one of those three teams. I would favor Mayfield slightly at West Carter if that’s the semifinals matchup.

3 minutes ago, BrosefStalin said:

Round 3 would look like this if these 4 teams made it to round 3

District 5 - Walton #19 RPI

District 6 - Beechwood #4 

District 7 - Middlesboro #8 or Breathitt #12

District 8 - West Carter #2

Walton at West Carter

Breathitt Co./Middlesboro at Beechwood 

Assuming West Carter and Beechwood win, and LCA/Somerset, and Mayfield advance from the other side. 

Round 4 would look like - 

*LCA advances - Beechwood at LCA & Mayfield at West Carter

*Somerset advances - Somerset at West Carter & Beechwood at Mayfield

Please correct me if I'm wrong. 

This is the exact way I understand it all. I don’t see how else it would work.

4 minutes ago, BrosefStalin said:

I see that, but my lord, Beechwood's resume just seems to much better than West Carter's and Mayfield's. 

Even if you look at last night, WCHS opponents had three wins yes..but, only one, Russell is even close to being an above average team and Russell beat a below average 1A Raceland team. 

Beechwood's opponent with a win was Ryle, ranked #8 in 6A, over a Conner team that crushed Boone and would likely beat Russell and Shelby Valley. 

Just doesn't make any sense to me. 

I never said the system was correct. That’s just how it works. I’m not an RPI fan personally either. I also agree that if you’re going off strength of schedule Beechwood would be above West Carter and Mayfield. 

26 minutes ago, BrosefStalin said:

How does Beechwood drop from #2 to #4 without playing and none of the other top 9 schools in 2A playing? What am I missing here? 

The only top 10 school that played in 2A was Shelby Valley and they beat a very average 3A Fleming County. That shouldn't negatively impact.

I did notice Ryle, a 6A school Beechwood pounded, won last night easily over Conner, to finish 6-3. They also are currently #8 in 6A RPI. That shouldn't negatively impact.  

2A Strength of Schedule Rankings - 1. LCA. 2. Beechwood. 8. West Carter. 15. Mayfield.

If this current RPI ranking holds, that is an absolutely brutal beat to the Tigers. Wow. 

The opponents West Carter has on their schedule that played this week went 3-0. Beechwoods opponents went 1-2 I believe. That dropped Beechwood OWP and raised WC’s OWP. That is the only thing I can figure. I was shocked WC jumped up to 2nd. 

57 minutes ago, snakesnot_2000 said:

I see a path for Mayfield to the State Title game. If the top 4 stands then Mayfield would play at West Carter? And if LCA was to lose to Somerset in the 2nd round then West Carter would take over the number 1seed and Somerset would travel to Mayfield and Beechwood would travel to West Carter?

If LCA loses to Somerset than West Carter becomes the 1 seed. Mayfield the 2 seed. Beechwood the 3 seed. Somerset the 4 seed. So Somerset goes to West Carter. Beechwood goes to Mayfield. Is that correct?

7 minutes ago, theguru said:

No clue.

Anyone?

I don’t know why the RPI scores themselves would need to be changed with forfeits. If you get a first round forfeit, just move everyone up a seed if you have a 5+ team district. If you get forfeits after that, just accept them as forfeits?