Okay ladies and gentlemen, you got a little taste of the Hensley Rating System towards the end of the regular season and now it is time to break out the HRS predictions for the 2009 postseason.

 

The rating is simple to explain. I combine the Cantral Rating from the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Lit Rating from the Louisville Courier-Journal and divide that by two (since there is just two factors at question) to get the average. That average is the HRS.

 

Over the last couple of seasons, I have done a post-season version of the HRS with predictions of every game and have been fairly successful. Now most first-round games will be easy to predict but others are not. I have been known from time to time to be exactly correct in how close a game will be while others have been way off.

 

Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting.

 

To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home team’s HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting team’s HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much.

 

If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner.

 

So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS for Class 3A entirely and the HRS predictions:

 

 

Class 1A

89.25 Lexington Christian

77.95 Mayfield

77.10 Beechwood

67.05 Crittenden County

67.05 Hazard

67.00 Bellevue

62.85 Frankfort

56.00 Holy Cross (Louisville)

54.50 Raceland

52.85 Fairview

52.85 Pikeville

48.40 Allen Central

47.75 Campbellsville

42.75 Harlan

42.35 Ballard Memorial

38.30 Eminence

 

 

Ballard Memorial (4-7) @ Mayfield (10-1) - MHS by 41.6

Crittenden Co. (9-2) @ Holy Cross (Lou.) (6-5) - CC by 5.05

Eminence (8-3) @ Beechwood (7-4) - BHS by 38.8

Bellevue (8-3) @ Frankfort (8-3) - FHS by 1.85

Fairview (8-3) @ Lexington Christian (10-1) - LCA by 41.4

Raceland (7-4) @ Campbellsville (7-4) - RHS by 0.75

Allen Central (10-1) @ Hazard (7-4) - HHS by 12.65

Harlan (6-5) @ Pikeville (6-5) - PHS by 16.1

 

 

Class 2A

101.40 Fort Campbell

84.65 DeSales

82.80 Murray

80.45 Newport Central Catholic

79.30 Prestonsburg

76.30 Corbin

72.90 Green County

71.80 Holy Cross (Covington)

70.30 Trigg County

69.95 Monroe County

66.25 Christian Academy-Louisville

65.55 Danville

64.35 Shelby Valley

54.30 Middlesboro

53.90 Bardstown

51.75 Hancock County

 

 

Hancock Co. (7-4) @ Murray (11-0) - MHS by 36.05

Trigg Co. (7-4) @ Fort Campbell (11-0) - FC by 37.1

Danville (5-6) @ Green Co. (8-3) - GC by 1.35

Monroe Co. (8-3) @ Bardstown (5-6) - MC by 10.05

Holy Cross (Cov.) (6-5) @ DeSales (8-3) - DHS by 18.85

Christian Acad.-Lou. (9-2) @ Newport Cent. Catholic (6-5) - NCC by 20.2

Middlesboro (4-7) @ Prestonburg (11-0) - PHS by 31

Shelby Valley (8-3) @ Corbin (9-2) - CHS by 17.95

 

 

Class 3A

83.80 Central

79.50 Belfry

73.80 Mason County

69.15 Somerset

68.55 Sheldon Clark

67.75 Breathitt County

66.10 Union County

65.50 Paducah Tilghman

64.25 Western Hills

63.80 Henry County

62.25 Russellville

61.90 Pike County Central

52.40 Elizabethtown

49.00 Butler County

44.90 Garrard County

41.30 Estill County

 

 

Paducah Tilghman (5-6) @ Union Co. (8-3) - UC by 6.6

Butler Co. (4-7) @ Russellville (7-4) - RHS by 19.25

Western Hills (8-3) @ Central (6-5) - CHS by 25.55

Elizabethtown (5-6) @ Henry Co. (9-2) - HC by 17.4

Estill Co. (7-4) @ Somerset (11-0) - SHS by 33.85

Garrard Co. (5-6) @ Breathitt Co. (6-5) - BC by 24.75

Pike Co. Central (6-5) @ Mason Co. (11-0) - MC by 17.9

Sheldon Clark (7-4) @ Belfry (8-3) - BHS by 16.95

 

 

Class 4A

106.15 Boyle County

101.75 Bell County

97.40 Lexington Catholic

91.45 Lone Oak

87.70 Marion County

79.55 Allen County-Scottsville

78.95 Western

78.35 Franklin-Simpson

76.45 Holmes

72.65 Rockcastle County

72.00 Lawrence County

71.80 Fairdale

71.45 Knox Central

69.75 LaRue County

66.55 West Jessamine

54.90 Logan County

 

Franklin-Simpson (9-2) @ Lone Oak (11-0) - LO by 19.1

Logan Co. (5-6) @ Allen Co.-Scottsville (10-0) - ACS by 30.65

Fairdale (8-3) @ Western (6-5) - WHS by 14.15

LaRue Co. (7-4) @ Marion Co. (9-2) - MC by 23.95

Lexington Catholic (7-4) @ Holmes (9-2) - LC by 14.45

West Jessamine (9-2) @ Boyle Co. (11-0) - BC by 45.6

Rockcastle Co. (5-6) @ Bell Co. (10-1) - BC by 35.1

Knox Central (7-4) @ Lawrence Co. (11-0) - LC by 6.55

 

 

Class 5A

110.55 Highlands

99.65 Bowling Green

95.60 John Hardin

92.75 Owensboro

90.85 Dixie Heights

90.05 Covington Catholic

89.55 Whitley County

86.15 Johnson Central

85.30 Warren Central

85.25 Christian County

81.85 Letcher County Central

79.90 Oldham County

75.40 Jeffersontown

71.70 Pulaski County

70.90 Harlan County

68.85 Doss

 

 

Warren Central (8-3) @ Christian Co. (7-4) - CC by 6.05

Owensboro (9-2) @ Bowling Green (9-2) - BG by 12.9

Doss (5-6) @ John Hardin (11-0) - JH by 32.75

Jeffersontown (7-4) @ Oldham Co. (7-4) - OC by 10.5

Dixie Heights (5-9) @ Highlands (11-0) - HHS by 25.7

Covington Catholic (6-5) @ Johnson Central (7-4) - JC by 4.1

Whitley Co. (7-4) @ Pulaski Co. (8-3) - WC by 11.85

Harlan Co. (8-3) @ Letcher Co. Central (9-2) - LCC by 16.95

 

Class 6A

120.05 St. Xavier

109.55 Simon Kenton

107.55 Trinity (Louisville)

103.65 Ryle

101.15 Male

100.00 duPont Manual

98.70 Henry Clay

98.10 Ballard

96.90 Shelby County

93.70 Bryan Station

92.40 Scott County

85.90 Henderson County

84.25 Meade County

83.45 Greenwood

80.70 Nelson County

79.45 George Rogers Clark

 

 

Meade Co. (6-5) @ Henderson Co. (8-3) - HC by 7.65

Nelson Co. (6-5) @ Greenwood (8-3) - GHS by 8.75

Ryle (8-3) @ St. Xavier (10-1) - X by 22.4

duPont Manual (5-6) @ Simon Kenton (10-1) - SK by 15.55

Ballard (8-3) @ Male (9-2) - H by 9.05

Shelby Co. (9-2) @ Trinity (7-4) - T by 16.65

Henry Clay (9-2) @ Bryan Station (9-2) - BS by 1.00

Scott Co. (8-3) @ George Rogers Clark (8-3) - SC by 6.95

Edited November 13, 200916 yr by gold sunrise

Nice!

4A projections?

I like it.:thumb: However, I broke my abacus checking the numbers.:isurrender:

Has W. Hills over Henry, Henry beat them already this year?

ttt

Thanks for putting this together statman! It is always interesting and does a pretty good job predicting results.

Ballard Memorial (4-7) @ Mayfield (10-1) - MHS by 41.6

Crittenden Co. (9-2) @ Holy Cross (Lou.) (6-5) - CC by 5.05

Eminence (8-3) @ Beechwood (7-4) - BHS by 38.8

Bellevue (8-3) @ Frankfort (8-3) - FHS by 1.85

Fairview (8-3) @ Lexington Christian (10-1) - LCA by 41.4

Raceland (7-4) @ Campbellsville (7-4) - RHS by 0.75

Allen Central (10-1) @ Hazard (7-4) - HHS by 12.65

Harlan (6-5) @ Pikeville (6-5) - PHS by 16.1

 

 

Hancock Co. (7-4) @ Murray (11-0) - MHS by 36.05

Trigg Co. (7-4) @ Fort Campbell (11-0) - FC by 37.1

Danville (5-6) @ Green Co. (8-3) - GC by 1.35

Monroe Co. (8-3) @ Bardstown (5-6) - MC by 10.05

Holy Cross (Cov.) (6-5) @ DeSales (8-3) - DHS by 18.85

Christian Acad.-Lou. (9-2) @ Newport Cent. Catholic (6-5) - NCC by 20.2

Middlesboro (4-7) @ Prestonburg (11-0) - PHS by 31

Shelby Valley (8-3) @ Corbin (9-2) - CHS by 17.95

 

 

Paducah Tilghman (5-6) @ Union Co. (8-3) - UC by 6.6

Butler Co. (4-7) @ Russellville (7-4) - RHS by 19.25

Western Hills (8-3) @ Central (6-5) - CHS by 25.55

Elizabethtown (5-6) @ Henry Co. (9-2) - HC by 17.4

Estill Co. (7-4) @ Somerset (11-0) - SHS by 33.85

Garrard Co. (5-6) @ Breathitt Co. (6-5) - BC by 24.75

Pike Co. Central (6-5) @ Mason Co. (11-0) - MC by 17.9

Sheldon Clark (7-4) @ Belfry (8-3) - BHS by 16.95

 

1A

Mayfield (48) - Check

Crittenden (4) - Check

Beechwood (58) - Check

Bellevue (3) - No Check

LCA (25) - Check

Raceland (3) - Check

Hazard (33) - Check

Harlan (7) - No Check

 

2A

Murray (36) - Check

Fort Cambell (34) - Check

Green Cty (39) - Check

Monroe (35) - Check

DeSales (8) - Check

NCC (20) - Check

Prestonburg (41) - Check

Corbin (17) - Check

 

3A

Paducah Tilghman (27) - No Check

Russellville (35) - Check

Central (7) - Check

Henry Co. (14) - Check

Somerset (49) - Check

Breathitt Co. (50) - Check

Pike Co. Central (3) - No Check

Sheldon Clark (6) - No Check

Franklin-Simpson (9-2) @ Lone Oak (11-0) - LO by 19.1

Logan Co. (5-6) @ Allen Co.-Scottsville (10-0) - ACS by 30.65

Fairdale (8-3) @ Western (6-5) - WHS by 14.15

LaRue Co. (7-4) @ Marion Co. (9-2) - MC by 23.95

Lexington Catholic (7-4) @ Holmes (9-2) - LC by 14.45

West Jessamine (9-2) @ Boyle Co. (11-0) - BC by 45.6

Rockcastle Co. (5-6) @ Bell Co. (10-1) - BC by 35.1

Knox Central (7-4) @ Lawrence Co. (11-0) - LC by 6.55

 

 

Warren Central (8-3) @ Christian Co. (7-4) - CC by 6.05

Owensboro (9-2) @ Bowling Green (9-2) - BG by 12.9

Doss (5-6) @ John Hardin (11-0) - JH by 32.75

Jeffersontown (7-4) @ Oldham Co. (7-4) - OC by 10.5

Dixie Heights (5-9) @ Highlands (11-0) - HHS by 25.7

Covington Catholic (6-5) @ Johnson Central (7-4) - JC by 4.1

Whitley Co. (7-4) @ Pulaski Co. (8-3) - WC by 11.85

Harlan Co. (8-3) @ Letcher Co. Central (9-2) - LCC by 16.95

 

 

 

Meade Co. (6-5) @ Henderson Co. (8-3) - HC by 7.65

Nelson Co. (6-5) @ Greenwood (8-3) - GHS by 8.75

Ryle (8-3) @ St. Xavier (10-1) - X by 22.4

duPont Manual (5-6) @ Simon Kenton (10-1) - SK by 15.55

Ballard (8-3) @ Male (9-2) - H by 9.05

Shelby Co. (9-2) @ Trinity (7-4) - T by 16.65

Henry Clay (9-2) @ Bryan Station (9-2) - BS by 1.00

Scott Co. (8-3) @ George Rogers Clark (8-3) - SC by 6.95

 

Lone Oak (42) - Check

Allen Co.-Scottsville (8) - Check

Western (27) - Check

Marion Co. (27) - Check

Lexington Catholic (18) - Check

Boyle Co. (41) - Check

Bell Co. (48) - Check

Lawrence Co. (19) - Check

 

Christian Co. (6) - Check

Bowling Green (4) - Check

John Hardin (30) - Check

Oldham Co. (3) - Check

Highlands (49) - Check

Johnson Central (19) - Check

Pulaski Co. (6) - No Check

Letcher Co. Central (1) - Check

 

Henderson Co. (11) - Check

Greenwood (11) - Check

St. Xavier (49) - Check

Simon Kenton (10) - Check

Male (13) - Check

Trinity (32) - Check

Henry Clay (1) - No Check

Scott Co. (3) - Check

48 game

41 correct

7 incorrect

 

85%

Who is Hensley and can I get them to look at my 401

Who is Hensley and can I get them to look at my 401

 

Me too. But before I get to complamentery I wan't to see how he picks my team next week!