Something could be brewing for around the last weekend of February. It's way too early to make any predictions, but it is something I'm watching. The Euro model is showing a deep trough, maybe in place Thursday morning, the 20th. It will stretch all of the way to the Gulf Coast of Texas. It appears to be on the negative tilt side, which means this could be the beginning of a strong system. If you remember, a negative tilted trough provides more lift in the atmosphere. This means stronger systems will develop. 

 

A surface low will develop along the trough and gain strength (deepen) as it moves northeastward out of Texas. It could reach 981 MB around the time it reaches our area. This could mean high winds and possible blizzard conditions for some. Now let me reiterate that this is not a prediction. I'm just posting what the Euro is showing.

 

These totals should not be interpreted as predictions. This is merely a moment in time and is dependent on how this potential system develops. I am keeping an eye on it and will provide an update later this week.

 

Just wanted to post an update on the possible return of winter next week.

A ridge will be situated over the eastern half of the United States at the beginning of the period, while a trough will be found in the southwest. Temperatures in the mid to upper 30s are predicted for the period before the system. There will be a low-pressure system across the Texas panhandle. A cold front that will bring precipitation will form in the space between the ridge and the trough as it advances east over the nation.

The region between the ridge and the trough will be ridden by the low-pressure system. The low will pull precipitation into Kentucky from the gulf as it advances eastward. Rain will be the initial form of precipitation. The rain will be converted to snow by the Arctic air wrapping around the low.

I will post another update later this week.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Keep in mind that these totals are not predictions. I only wanted to demonstrate what would be feasible if everything works out as the GFS indicates.

 

 

There also could be a severe weather outbreak from southern Tennesse to the Gulf coast during this same period. 

This is what the Euro is showing for the possible storm next week.

 

 

 

 

This will be a quick update. All the models are sending signals that a winter weather system will pass through Kentucky around the middle of next week. They are not in agreements on possible accumulations. I just wanted to show what the GFS is showing as of now.

 

A arctic air mass will move into Kentucky on Tuesday. Snow will breakout in western Kentucky and move southeastward across Kentucky. I will post a more detailed update tomorrow. Don't take these totals as a forecast. They will change as we get closer.

 

 

 

 

Saturday morning update:

 

All of the modeling data is showing a storm passing through Kentucky mid-week. They still differ some on the possible accumulation totals. I'm going to show what the GFS is showing. 

A piece of energy located around the Texas panel will move towards Kentucky and start to merge with another piece of energy that moves in from Canada. They will start to phase, but not completely around Missouri, and then move through Kentucky. This is a sign that the storm system is starting to gain strength. 

You can see by the picture below they don't complete phase together. The space indicated by the arrows will hold the snow totals down some. 

 

A low-pressure system will move along the Gulf Coast and throw some moisture towards Kentucky. On the northern side, a Canadian high will move arctic air in our area. That plus cold air that will wrap around the low will cause the temperatures to plummet. Snow is forecast to move into western Kentucky Tuesday evening and last until early Thursday morning. 

 

 

 

As of this model run. This is what the GFS is showing for possible snow accumulations. These will change as we get closer to mid week. 

 

Is this for next week, like in a couple of days, or is this for the last weekend in February?

1 hour ago, PP1 said:

Is this for next week, like in a couple of days, or is this for the last weekend in February?

If you look at the first post, the dates were for Thursday/Friday. As I mentioned, everything would change. As we get closer, the models are showing the system coming in earlier in the week instead of the weekend. 

This coming Wednesday looking at a decent snow accumulation for my area, 5" or so looking at NWS hourly forecast for the day.