At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was 
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 76.7 West. Rafael is 
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion 
is expected to begin later tonight and forecast to continue for the 
next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move 
near Jamaica late tonight, be near or over the Cayman Islands late 
Tuesday, and approach Cuba on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is now forecast and the 
system is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the 
Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

 

1. Rafael is forecast to be a hurricane when it passes near or over 
the Cayman Islands by Tuesday evening where damaging hurricane-force 
winds, a dangerous storm surge, and destructive waves are expected. 
Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica tonight and 
Tuesday.

2. Additional strengthening is forecast before Rafael reaches 
western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday where there is an 
increasing risk of a dangerous storm surge and damaging 
hurricane-force winds. 

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Lower and Middle 
Florida Keys beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday night. 

4. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could 
bring to portions of the northern Gulf coast.  Residents in this 
area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.

5. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain to portions of the western 
Caribbean, including Jamaica and Cuba through mid-week, where 
flooding and landslides are possible.  Heavy rainfall will spread 
into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States mid 
to late week.

 

 

 

Here we go again, ugh.

1 minute ago, theguru said:

Here we go again, ugh.

I know how you feel. The remnants of Rafael will affect portions of Kentucky.

Just now, nWo said:

I know how you feel. The remnants of Rafael will affect portions of Kentucky.

Plus my dad lives in Florida, @swamprat lives there, and generally speaking Florida gets hard.

Rafael is now a hurricane.

At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Rafael was located
by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Grand Cayman radar 
near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 80.9 West.  Rafael is moving 
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A general 
northwestward motion is anticipated over the next day or so, 
followed by a gradual west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico. 
On the forecast track, Rafael is expected move over western Cuba 
later today, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Rafael is 
forecast to become a Category 2 hurricane before it makes landfall 
in Cuba later today.  Rafael could briefly weaken over Cuba but is 
then expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a 
hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft observations is 977 mb (28.85 inches).

 

1. Rafael is forecast to be a hurricane when it passes near or over
the Cayman Islands during the next 12 hours, where damaging
hurricane-force winds, a dangerous storm surge, and destructive
waves are expected. Additional strengthening is expected before
Rafael reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. A
hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where damaging
hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and destructive
waves are also expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Lower and Middle
Florida Keys beginning Wednesday and Wednesday night.

3. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could
bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast.  Residents in this
area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.

4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the
western Caribbean through early Thursday, including Jamaica and the
Cayman Islands, along with southern and western portions of Cuba.
Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along the higher terrain
in Jamaica and Cuba.

 

Thank God this is turning more westerly and slowing down. I tested positive for COVID, yesterday, and feel like crap. I am isolated from Mrs. S here at my place. I am not sure of the logistics of where we could go or how we would get there. 

This system is very unusual if it reaches major hurricane strength in November.

7 am update:

1. Rafael is expected to strengthen to near major hurricane
intensity before reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth
today.  A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where
damaging hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and
destructive waves are also expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Lower and Middle
Florida Keys beginning today and tonight.

3. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could
bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast.  Residents in this
area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.

4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the
Western Caribbean through early Thursday, including the islands of
Jamaica and the Caymans along with western Cuba. Flash flooding and
mudslides are expected along the higher terrain in western Cuba.

 

 

 

1. While Rafael is now moving away from western Cuba, a hurricane 
warning remains in effect for this region where a life-threatening 
storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and destructive waves 
are still possible.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in
the Lower and Middle Florida Keys tonight.

3. Hurricane Rafael will continue to bring periods of heavy rain to 
western Cuba into Thursday. Flash flooding and mudslides are 
possible along the higher terrain.

4. Rafael is forecast to meander over the south-central Gulf of
Mexico this weekend and early next week.  Interests in the southern
and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.

 

 

1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next
few days.

2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the central Gulf of
Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern
and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.