Think free throw percentage is an over-rated stat?   Perhaps, but then again, maybe it isn't over-rated....

I started tracking this information a year ago, and updated it last season...

Of the last 10 Eighth Region Champions, NINE have shot better than average (defined here as 66.7%) at the line.   (The only exception:   The 2019 Walton-Verona Bearcats, who shot just 60.8% from the line, and failed to hit 66.7% in four of their five district/region tournament games).

In addition, "fast starts" typified the season for the ultimate Region champs; the worst start to a season for a region titleist came in 2015, when Collins won just 6 of their first 10.   While we all know a strong finish is very, very important, it appears that the elite teams rarely stumble out of the gate.

The last 10 champs:

Year	Region 8 Champ	Season Free Throw %	Start to season
2022	North Oldham	67.9%	7-1
2021	Oldham County	75.5%	9-2
2020	Collins	73.1%	8-0
2019	Walton-Verona	60.8%	8-0
2018	Oldham County	66.8%	12-0
2017	Collins	68.0%	11-2
2016	South Oldham	77.5%	15-1
2015	Collins	71.6%	6-4
2014	South Oldham	68.6%	15-2
2013	South Oldham	70.8%	12-3

 

Based on the above criteria – for what it’s worth – only seven teams “qualify” to win the region title this year.    I view this as sort of the HS Basketball version of the Beyer Speed Index….the BSF is not a predictor of who will win the KY Derby, but rather a “disqualifier” of those who cannot win the Derby.    Well over 90% of all Derby winners have had a Beyer Speed Index of over 100 in a race prior to the Derby.    Those who have failed to achieve such an achievement, are not expected to win the Derby.

So – while a team’s inclusion in the list below is not intended to ‘predict’ that they will win the region, a team’s exclusion from the list is more the point of the exercise. 

We’ll see.   I find it to be a fascinating exercise, for what it’s worth….it’s held up 9 times out of the last 10 years….we’ll see if it holds again this year.

The seven teams that meet both criteria (simply ranked in order of FT%):

Team	Season Free Throw %	Start to season
Williamstown	77.7% (#4 in KY)	5-2
Owen County	74.5% (#15 in KY)	14-4
Collins	73.8% (#17 in KY)	9-0
Grant County	72.6% (#26 in KY)	9-0
Spencer County	71.8% (#37 in KY)	11-4
Walton-Verona	71.6% (#39 in KY)	8-2
North Oldham	67.1%	11-4

 

The following teams qualify under the free throw percentage, but failed to get off to a fast start:

Team	Season Free Throw %	Season start
Oldham County	76.5% (#5 in KY)	3-6
South Oldham	70.2%	2-5
Shelby County	67.4%	5-5
Gallatin County	69.5%	1-6

The remaining teams failed to qualify under the initial criteria (free throw percentage over 66.7%):

Team	Season Free Throw %
Simon Kenton	65.8%
Woodford County	64.8%
Henry County	61.3%
Trimble County	63.3%
Eminence	60.5%
Anderson County	58.3%
Carroll County	57.7%

It will really be interesting to see how this plays this year.

On 2/19/2023 at 1:06 PM, 4 Quarters said:

It will really be interesting to see how this plays this year.

Exactly.    I introduced this in a thread last season.....and North Oldham kept the trend going.    

I'm making no claims about it - just interested in seeing how it continues to play out.    Goodness knows I've often asserted that free throws matter come tournament time....    Over the last decade, that's been true.

As per usual, really interesting thinking here ColonelMike.  Good research.  To play devil's advocate.......I think one of those 2 factors is far more important than the other.  Or rather let me say it this way:  a team will almost always have close games in the post-season, so free throw percentage is likely a good predictor of success.  If you shoot poorly from the line, that's likely going to bite you at some point.  Conversely, 'getting off to a good start' most probably  means you are just reducing the list of teams to the 'best teams'.  Which is obviously important as you try to separate the teams that could win the thing from those that probably cannot......but as we all know, the best team doesn't always win!  That's point 1 about good starts.  Point 2 is we all have also seen teams get hot at the right time, get on a run and go further in tournament play than one would have predicted.  If you eliminate teams that got off to bad starts, you're taking some of those off the table.......

How did you judge the hot start? Was it a certain time period? Because North Oldham started off early not in the best shape...

I think according to these stats it should either be Grant County, Owen County, or Collins. (Take it w/ a grain of salt, North is still the favorite.)

1 hour ago, Mojocat said:

59 minutes ago, Adrian Woj Burner said:

How did you judge the hot start? Was it a certain time period? Because North Oldham started off early not in the best shape...

I think according to these stats it should either be Grant County, Owen County, or Collins. (Take it w/ a grain of salt, North is still the favorite.)

but as we all know, the best team doesn't always win!  That's point 1 about good starts.  Point 2 is we all have also seen teams get hot at the right time, get on a run and go further in tournament play than one would have predicted.  If you eliminate teams that got off to bad starts, you're taking some of those off the table.......

This is not a theory of how things always work, this is an observation only.    I'm not proposing a theory that only teams that have hot starts can win the region; I'm merely noting that this is one of the interesting - and consistent - statistical characteristics of every team over the last decade, except for one.     (and even that team - Collins - went 6-4 out of the gate).

I'm not saying it guarantees or predicts anything - it's just a note that there hasn't been a team that had a losing record early that won the region in the last decade.   And 9 of 10 got off to what I would classify as "hot starts".

We always talk a lot about how it's a "long season" and coaches can "grow their team" (both true statements), but we just haven't seen it happen in the 8th in this century.   

In fact, the last team that could be argued that didn't have a "hot start" (keep in mind, this is all subjective....how many games do you have to review?  how many do you have to win?  "Hot start" is somewhat subjective here), and still won the 8th Region would have been the 1999-2000 Scott County Cardinals, who opened 3-3 - before ripping off 13 consecutive wins.  Nobody else who has won the 8th Region since the 1998-9 season has had such a pedestrian record that far into the season (6 games).  And honestly, I'm not sure I could say a team that went 16-3 didn't have a hot start, even if they did split their first six (again, subjectivity). 

From 2012 to 1999, the second "worst" start was the 2001 Oldham team that went 7-3 to start the year, but that Colonel team went 5-0 before their first loss....

It's just something intriguing to look at.

Really, the same holds true for the free throw percentage - although I've always felt that FT % success gave a team a serious advantage come tournament time, due to the game scores contracting, etc. - it's still just an observation.   Does Williamstown at 77% (#4 in KY!) have a better chance to win the region than North Oldham, who's ten points below them in FT %?   I don't think anyone would say that.     That's why I think this is a qualifier / eliminator type of statistic, not a predictor.   You don't compare the numbers to each other - you compare them to a benchmark.   Fail to meet the benchmark, and your odds of success plummet dramatically, or so the evidence would suggest.

Like I said, I'm curious if it holds up again this year.....but these stats have been consistent over the last decade....

7 minutes ago, ColonelMike said:

This is not a theory of how things always work, this is an observation only.    I'm not proposing a theory that only teams that have hot starts can win the region; I'm merely noting that this is one of the interesting - and consistent - statistical characteristics of every team over the last decade, except for one.     (and even that team - Collins - went 6-4 out of the gate).

I'm not saying it guarantees or predicts anything - it's just a note that there hasn't been a team that had a losing record early that won the region in the last decade.   And 9 of 10 got off to what I would classify as "hot starts".

We always talk a lot about how it's a "long season" and coaches can "grow their team" (both true statements), but we just haven't seen it happen in the 8th in this century.   

In fact, the last team that could be argued that didn't have a "hot start" (keep in mind, this is all subjective....how many games do you have to review?  how many do you have to win?  "Hot start" is somewhat subjective here), and still won the 8th Region would have been the 1999-2000 Scott County Cardinals, who opened 3-3 - before ripping off 13 consecutive wins.  Nobody else who has won the 8th Region since the 1998-9 season has had such a pedestrian record that far into the season (6 games).  And honestly, I'm not sure I could say a team that went 16-3 didn't have a hot start, even if they did split their first six (again, subjectivity). 

From 2012 to 1999, the second "worst" start was the 2001 Oldham team that went 7-3 to start the year, but that Colonel team went 5-0 before their first loss....

It's just something intriguing to look at.

Really, the same holds true for the free throw percentage - although I've always felt that FT % success gave a team a serious advantage come tournament time, due to the game scores contracting, etc. - it's still just an observation.   Does Williamstown at 77% (#4 in KY!) have a better chance to win the region than North Oldham, who's ten points below them in FT %?   I don't think anyone would say that.     That's why I think this is a qualifier / eliminator type of statistic, not a predictor.   You don't compare the numbers to each other - you compare them to a benchmark.   Fail to meet the benchmark, and your odds of success plummet dramatically, or so the evidence would suggest.

Like I said, I'm curious if it holds up again this year.....but these stats have been consistent over the last decade....

Okay, I understand. Thanks for the details! 

This reminds me of the NCAA Tournament, and there is this certain ranking for defense and offense (I can't remember the name), and the last 20 or so winners have been top-20 (maybe more, not sure of exact numbers) in each category. 

What team has the possibility of breaking these two things this year? I would say that Simon Kenton and maybe Woodford Co. are the only possibilities. 

Realistically, it is looking like the streak will go on.