Region Power Rankings

[Runcible Owl]

📈 (2/3/22) Thought it would be interesting to look at a ranking based on, not just the top teams, but on a deeper dive to reflect the depth each Region has. 

Since the Regional championship fields are set at eight teams, I chose that number as the cutoff for scoring. This would also be the midrange for the number of teams in each Region. 

Scoring is based on lowest total, think golf. More accurately the score would be similar to Cross Country. But instead of capping a Regions' scoring to the top eight, teams below act as "pushers" that will drive another Regions' total higher, and thus rank lower.

Raw numbers are pulled from the latest Massey Ratings <see link below>. This far into the season, the sample size is large. Massey is a good resource to compare Kentucky teams - includes games against all states bordering us (MO, IL, IN, OH, WV, VA, TN), Prep Schools, and Home Schools, which I'm estimating covers 90+% of games played to date. There's a "Strength of Schedule" component to their formula which I think is great too (like CalPreps for football). 

masseyratings.com/hsgb/ky/ratings 

Reg.  Score, Range: #1 to #8 Teams

• R9 176, 2. Cooper - 64. Newport Catholic

• R12 343, 15. Pulaski County - 93. Wayne County

• R13 380, 10. North Laurel - 102. Pineville

• R11 401, 17. Franklin County - 67. Henry Clay 

• R7 412, 1. Sacred Heart - 167. Portland Christian 

• R16 431, 26. Rowan County - 95. Morgan County

• R8 549, 21. Anderson County - 112. North Oldham 

• R5 553, 23. Bethlehem - 100. John Hardin 

• R3 572, 16. Owensboro Catholic - 117. Edmondson County

• R10 608, 5. George Rogers Clark - 121. Bracken County

• R15 614, 18. Pikeville - 151. Pike County Central

• R2 707, 9. Henderson County - 133.  Russellville 

• R4 737, 12. Bowling Green - 114. Logan County

• R14 882, 57. Perry County Central - 150. Estill County

• R6 956, 6. Mercy - 229. Fern Creek 

• R1 1043, 4. McCracken Co. - 210. Fulton County 

❓Surprises? Is this method a fair and accurate assessment of Region strength?

• Surprise for me - 7th Region. Even with four teams in the Top 20 (1. Sacred Heart, 3. Manual, 13. CAL, and 20. Central), two more in the Top 40 (32. Assumption and 39. Male), 137. Ballard and 167. Portland Christian pull the 7th down to 5th place. 

🦉

[Falcon Pride]

2 hours ago, Runcible Owl said:

📈 (2/3/22) Thought it would be interesting to look at a ranking based on, not just the top teams, but on a deeper dive to reflect the depth each Region has. 

Since the Regional championship fields are set at eight teams, I chose that number as the cutoff for scoring. This would also be the midrange for the number of teams in each Region. 

Scoring is based on lowest total, think golf. More accurately the score would be similar to Cross Country. But instead of capping a Regions' scoring to the top eight, teams below act as "pushers" that will drive another Regions' total higher, and thus rank lower.

Raw numbers are pulled from the latest Massey Ratings <see link below>. This far into the season, the sample size is large. Massey is a good resource to compare Kentucky teams - includes games against all states bordering us (MO, IL, IN, OH, WV, VA, TN), Prep Schools, and Home Schools, which I'm estimating covers 90+% of games played to date. There's a "Strength of Schedule" component to their formula which I think is great too (like CalPreps for football). 

masseyratings.com/hsgb/ky/ratings 

Reg.  Score, Range: #1 to #8 Teams

• R9 176, 2. Cooper - 64. Newport Catholic

• R12 343, 15. Pulaski County - 93. Wayne County

• R13 380, 10. North Laurel - 102. Pineville

• R11 401, 17. Franklin County - 67. Henry Clay 

• R7 412, 1. Sacred Heart - 167. Portland Christian 

• R16 431, 26. Rowan County - 95. Morgan County

• R8 549, 21. Anderson County - 112. North Oldham 

• R5 553, 23. Bethlehem - 100. John Hardin 

• R3 572, 16. Owensboro Catholic - 117. Edmondson County

• R10 608, 5. George Rogers Clark - 121. Bracken County

• R15 614, 18. Pikeville - 151. Pike County Central

• R2 707, 9. Henderson County - 133.  Russellville 

• R4 737, 12. Bowling Green - 114. Logan County

• R14 882, 57. Perry County Central - 150. Estill County

• R6 956, 6. Mercy - 229. Fern Creek 

• R1 1043, 4. McCracken Co. - 210. Fulton County 

❓Surprises? Is this method a fair and accurate assessment of Region strength?

• Surprise for me - 7th Region. Even with four teams in the Top 20 (1. Sacred Heart, 3. Manual, 13. CAL, and 20. Central), two more in the Top 40 (32. Assumption and 39. Male), 137. Ballard and 167. Portland Christian pull the 7th down to 5th place. 

🦉

This is really well done BUT I’d look at it a little differently.

It’s the top of the region that counts. Going to 8 teams is way too many as most regions only have 4 at most that can win. The 9th may be the one region where 4 isn’t enough but you get the idea.

Great work!

[Runcible Owl]

4 hours ago, Falcon Pride said:

This is really well done BUT I’d look at it a little differently.

It’s the top of the region that counts. Going to 8 teams is way too many as most regions only have 4 at most that can win. The 9th may be the one region where 4 isn’t enough but you get the idea.

Great work!

Fair points, thank you.  

Some Regions are top heavy, and in some cases, there is one clear cut favorite, with the usual cast of characters.  

If we cut "The Field" to four per Region, the rankings look like this ~ 

Reg. Score, Range #1 to #4 Teams 

• R9 28, 2. Cooper - 11. Dixie Hts. 

• R7 37, 1. SHA - 20. Central 

• R13 108, 10. N. Laurel - 36. Knox Cent. 

• R12 109, 15. Pulaski Co. - 41. Somerset 

• R16 117, 26. Rowan Co. - 35. Boyd Co. 

• R11 140, 17. Franklin Co. - 56. Great Crossing 

• R3 146, 16. O'boro Cath - 61. Owensboro 

• R6 162, 6. Mercy - 77. Butler 

• R10 167, 5. GRC - 80. Scott HS 

• R8 182, 21. Anderson Co. - 70. Owen Co. 

• R15 183, 18. Pikeville - 68. Johnson Cent. 

• R5 200, 23. Bethlehem - 69. N. Hardin 

• R4 204, 12. Bowling Green - 87. Greenwood 

• R2 226, 9. Henderson Co. - 86. Union Co.  

• R1 306, 4. McCracken Co. - 160 Calloway Co. 

• R14 321, 57. Perry Co. Cent. - 104. Owsley Co.

[rjal]

As someone who is it familiar with most of the regions outside of NKY I find this very interesting.  Most regions (10/16) actually have a team in the top 16 and another 5 have one in the next ten.  There is really only one region that is going to get a team in the sweet 16 that isn’t in the top 26 and yeah they are pretty far down there, but otherwise no outliers.  Of course all the other top 16 that will be left out will be from just two regions the 9th with five top 16 and 7th with three.  I am obviously biased but it is looking like it will be just as hard to win the ninth as it will be to win the sweet 16 as long as they draw opposite SHA. 

[rjal]

40 minutes ago, rjal said:

As someone who is it familiar with most of the regions outside of NKY I find this very interesting.  Most regions (10/16) actually have a team in the top 16 and another 5 have one in the next ten.  There is really only one region that is going to get a team in the sweet 16 that isn’t in the top 26 and yeah they are pretty far down there, but otherwise no outliers.  Of course all the other top 16 that will be left out will be from just two regions the 9th with five top 16 and 7th with three.  I am obviously biased but it is looking like it will be just as hard to win the ninth as it will be to win the sweet 16 as long as they draw opposite SHA. 

I should have said not familiar with other regions oops.