4th Region Week 9 Review and Rankings

[DragonFire]

1) Warren Central (21-1) - 1/24 81-34 W Kenwood (TN), 1/27 91-59 W #12 Greenwood    
Previous Rank: 1    
This Week: 1/30 vs. Christian County, 2/3 vs. #2 Bowling Green    
    
2) Bowling Green (21-4) - 1/23 70-59 W at Ohio County, 1/27 49-36 W #3 South Warren    
Previous Rank: 2    
This Week: 2/3 at #1 Warren Central    
    
3) Franklin-Simpson (12-6) - 1/24 62-50 W #16 Allen County-Scottsville, 1/27 74-62 W at #8 Todd County Central    
Previous Rank: 4    
This Week: 1/31 vs. #11 Russellville, 2/3 at #11 Russellville    
    
4) South Warren (15-6) - 1/24 41-42 L at #6 Warren East, 1/27 36-49 L at #2 Bowling Green, 1/28 68-57 W #17 Logan County    
Previous Rank: 3    
This Week: 2/3 at #12 Greenwood    
    
5) Warren East (12-7) - 1/24 42-41 W #3 South Warren, 1/27 63-47 W Central Hardin, 1/28 62-43 W #9 Russellville    
Previous Rank: 6    
This Week: 1/31 vs. #14 Glasgow, 2/3 at #16 Allen County-Scottsville    
    
6) Barren County (15-8) - 1/24 71-58 W at #9 Russellville, 1/27 60-51 W #14 Glasgow    
Previous Rank: 5    
This Week: 1/31 at #12 Greenwood, 2/3 at #13 Cumberland County    
    
7) Monroe County (14-8) - 1/24 63-67 L #10 Metcalfe County, 1/27 82-44 W Bluegrass Blazers    
Previous Rank: 7    
This Week: 1/31 at #10 Clinton County, 2/3 vs. #15 Russell County, 2/4 vs. Red Boiling Springs (TN)    
    
8. Todd County Central (13-10) - 1/23 67-60 OT W Edmonson County, 1/27 62-74 L #4 Franklin-Simpson, 1/28 59-78 L Paducah Tilghman    
Previous Rank: 8    
This Week: 2/3 at #17 Logan County    
    
9) Metcalfe County (9-12) - 1/24 67-63 W at #7 Monroe County, 1/28 84-60 W John Hardin    
Previous Rank: 10    
This Week: 1/31 vs. #15 Russell County, 2/2 at #14 Glasgow    
    
10) Clinton County (11-11) - 1/23 49-44 W at Campbellsville, 1/24 53-84 L at Pulaski County, 1/28 54-52 W #12 Greenwood    
Previous Rank: 11    
This Week: 1/31 vs. #7 Monroe County, 2/4 vs. #14 Glasgow    
    
11) Russellville (6-13) - 1/24 58-71 L #5 Barren County, 1/27 57-46 W at #17 Logan County, 1/28 43-62 L at #6 Warren East    
Previous Rank: 9    
This Week: 1/31 at #3 Franklin-Simpson, 2/3 vs. #3 Franklin-Simpson    
    
12) Greenwood (6-18) - 1/27 59-91 L at #1 Warren Central, 1/28 52-54 L at #11 Clinton County    
Previous Rank: 12    
This Week: 1/31 vs. #6 Barren County, 2/3 vs. #4 South Warren    
    
13) Cumberland County (10-13) - 1/24 68-65 W #15 Russell County, 1/26 35-72 L Owensboro Catholic (at EKU), 1/28 65-40 W Marion County    
Previous Rank: 13    
This Week: 1/31 at #16 Allen County-Scottsville, 2/3 vs. #6 Barren County, 2/4 at Somerset Christian    
    
14) Glasgow (6-13) - 1/24 71-82 2OT L at Green County, 1/27 51-60 L at #5 Barren County    
Previous Rank: 14    
This Week: 1/31 at #5 Warren East, 2/2 vs. #9 Metcalfe County, 2/4 at #10 Clinton County    
    
15) Russell County (8-14) - 1/24 65-68 L at #13 Cumberland County, 1/27 38-55 L Danville Christian    
Previous Rank: 15    
This Week: 1/31 at #9 Metcalfe County, 2/3 at #7 Monroe County    
    
16) Allen County-Scottsville (4-16) - 1/23 49-62 L Butler County, 1/24 50-62 L at #4 Franklin-Simpson, 1/28 46-39 W Apollo    
Previous Rank: 16    
This Week: 1/31 vs. #13 Cumberland County, 2/3 vs. #5 Warren East    
    
17) Logan County (7-15) - 1/23 47-39 W at Heritage Christian, 1/27 46-57 L #9 Russellville, 1/28 57-68 L at #3 South Warren    
Previous Rank: 17    
This Week: 2/3 vs. #8 Todd County Central, 2/4 vs. Apollo    
    
18) Foundation Christian Academy (5-11) - 1/24 67-57 W Owensboro Knights Christian, 1/27 32-49 L Whitefield Academy, 1/28 26-56 L Somerset Christian School    
Previous Rank: 18    
This Week: 2/3 vs. LKY Home School, 2/4 vs. Shawe Memorial (IN) (at Owensboro), 2/4 vs. McLean County (at Owensboro)    

Notes

-There are two weeks left in the district slates - in some cases, only one week.  So this is a good time to take stock of where we're at and set up the scenarios soon to play out.

-Starting in the 13th District, we have one of our more wide open races, at least in terms of potential outcomes.  There are only two certainties at this point - Franklin-Simpson cannot finish below 3rd and Logan County cannot rise beyond 3rd.  Both Franklin-Simpson (3-0) and Russellville (2-0) are unbeaten in district play.  Russellville has only played Logan County so far, defeating the Cougars twice in the Clash of the Cats, most recently an 11 point win this past Friday.  That leads into this critical week, where Franklin and Russellville meet twice, first in Franklin on Tuesday, and then Russellville on Friday.  If Franklin-Simpson wins both games, then they will clinch the #1 seed, having already swept Todd County Central, finishing that off on Friday in a 74-62 win in Elkton. Jalen Briscoe had 30 in that, with Hogan dropping in 25 as well.  Should Russellville sweep, that would put them in the driver's seat, needing only to defeat Todd County Central once in their two matchups the following week, in Russellville on February 6th or in Elkton on February 10th.  In that scenario - where Russellville sweeps Franklin - if Todd County Central were to sweep Russellville in addition to beating Logan County on February 3rd, we'd have a three way tie at the top - that is Todd County Central's only path to potentially gaining the top seed - any other combination of results will shut the door on them.  The district tiebreakers listed for basketball after head to head among tied teams includes "Runs Against among tied teams", so I'm not sure if that will translate to points against in that group or if they'll just shift to the third tiebreaker of RPI.  If Russellville and Franklin-Simpson split their matchups, that will muddy the water, meaning the two could very well still end up tied at either 5-1 or 4-2 in district play, which would revert to the same district tiebreakers.  Logan County's only outright path out of the #4 seed is to sweep their remaining matchups against Todd County Central (at home on 2/3) and at Franklin-Simpson (on 2/10), AND have Todd County Central lose at least one of their matchups against Russellville.  If Todd County Central were to lose both of those, they'd be 1-5 with Logan County now 2-4 in district play.  If Logan County were to drop their game against Franklin-Simpson, then it would go to (presumably) the RPI tiebreaker. This next week should make most of the picture crystallize, but just in case it comes to RPI, this is where those teams stand currently:

Franklin-Simpson (.595)
Todd County Central (.534)
Russellville (.449)
Logan County (.421)

My predicted order of finish: #1 Franklin-Simpson, #2 Todd County Central, #3 Russellville, #4 Logan County

-The 14th District is a bit more defined, at least in who can be in the 1-2 spots and who can be in 3-4.  Warren Central is at the top, currently 5-0 in district play.  Bowling Green is just behind at 4-1.  Neither can be any lower than #2 in the district, and they meet at Warren Central this Friday.  If Warren Central wins that matchup, they win the #1 seed outright at 6-0. If Bowling Green wins, they will force a two-way tie.  The 14th has adjusted their tiebreakers to now be the RPI following the last day to play a seeded game.  Presumably, that means after the final district games are played this week on February 3rd.  It's possible that the interpretation is the last day a seeded game is typically allowable to be played, which is February 10th.  At current time, both of these teams are ranked in the top 10 in the state for RPI, with Warren Central (.719) #1 overall and Bowling Green (.684) #7 overall.  It appears to me that it would be difficult for Bowling Green to make up the gap without Warren Central losing multiple games, but the RPI can be strange to me.  I guess I prefer the RPI method to their old coin-flip ways, but I also hate the RPI, so I'm torn....  On the bottom of the group, South Warren is 1-4 and Greenwood is 0-5 in district play.  Neither can rise above #3.  South Warren visits Greenwood on Friday.  If the Spartans win, they'll clinch #3 outright.  If Greenwood wins, it will go to the RPI tiebreaker.  South Warren has taken some RPI hits of late, but they have an absolutely dominant advantage between those teams, with a .610 rating and Greenwood just at .465.  In my interpretation, South Warren has almost certainly already clinched the #3 seed regardless of the result on Friday.  A reminder, Foundation Christian Academy plays as part of region 4 and is a member of the 14th District, but will not be competing in postseason play.  It's not really certain when (or if) they will.

My predicted order of finish: #1 Warren Central, #2 Bowling Green, #3 South Warren, #4 Greenwood

-The 15th District is the first one that has someone who has clinched a particular spot.  Barren County's district slate is done, finishing at 5-1 after a 60-51 win over Glasgow this past Friday.  Every other team in the district has two or more losses, so the Trojans have locked up the #1 spot in the district.  At the bottom of the group, Allen County-Scottsville is 0-4, and almost completely locked into the #4 spot.  Glasgow and Warren East are both 2-2, and will face each other this week at Warren East on Tuesday.  That means at least one of them will be 3-2 after that game, a record Allen County-Scottsville cannot match.  An added wrinkle - the 15th District's tiebreaker after head to head is their record against the district's highest seeded team, moving in ascending order.  Warren East holds a win over Barren County, which AC/S will not be able to match.  That means they will automatically lose a tiebreaker against Warren East.  As a result, AC/S's only way out is to sweep their remaining matchups (2/3 vs. Warren East and 2/10 at Glasgow) AND have Glasgow be the team to lose that matchup against Warren East.  In that scenario, both Glasgow and AC/S would be 0-2 against Barren County and 1-1 against Warren East, and 1-1 against each other.  That would push it to the third tiebreaker, drawing from a pill bottle.  That would follow the district site selection plan in order of next hosts, with AC/S the next to host.  So they would draw, getting the 50/50 chance at the #3 seed, and Glasgow would take what's left.  If any of those tumblers don't fall into place, it'll be Barren County/ACS and Glasgow/Warren East in the district tournament.  If Glasgow wins their matchup against Warren East, they'll complete a season sweep of the Raiders, clinching the #2 seed.  If Warren East wins, they would clinch the #2 seed with a win over AC/S on Friday.  If they lost that game, it will come down to the pill bottle for who gets to be the #2 seed, basically irrelevant, as they will still play each other (Glasgow/Warren East) in the 2/3 game.  The district is at Warren East, so it's possible that pill bottle wouldn't even be for who wears white in the matchup.

My predicted order of finish: #1 Barren County (locked in), #2 Warren East, #3 Glasgow, #4 Allen County-Scottsville

-And that brings us to the district that has been the most wild this year, the only real five team district in the region.  At current, Monroe County is 5-1, Metcalfe County 4-2, Clinton County 4-3, Russell County 2-4, and Cumberland County 1-6.  We know Cumberland County cannot finish higher than #4, so they will be playing in the 4/5 "quarterfinal" game, needing to win two games to make region.  Their lone remaining game is 2/6 against Metcalfe County, and a win in that game would give them a chance to tie Russell County for the #4 seed, but that'll just determine who wears home whites for the district tournament matchup.  Russell County can only get out by sweeping their remaining games (Tuesday at Metcalfe County and Friday at Monroe County) to get to 4-4 in district play, and receiving some help.  They were swept by Clinton County, so they would not want to be tied with them.  Clinton County is 4-3 with only their game Tuesday against Monroe County remaining.  A two-way tie between those two teams would result in Clinton County receiving the #3 seed.  Metcalfe County is 4-2 in district, and has the matchup against Russell County that a Laker win would push them to 4-3, having been swept by Russell County on the year.  If Metcalfe County were to then lose to Cumberland County on 2/6, that would make them 4-4.  If they were in a two-way tie with 4-4 Russell County, then Russell County would clinch the #3 seed.  If Clinton County were drawn into the tiebreaker scenario with all three teams at 4-4, each team involved would have swept one of the other teams in the tiebreak and been swept by one, which would push them to a pill bottle draw.  Metcalfe County would draw first as the next host, then Russell County, followed by Clinton County taking what was left.  At the top of the district, Monroe County has remaining games Tuesday at Clinton County and Friday at home against Russell County.  A win in either of those games means they cannot finish lower than 2nd in the district.  A win in both clinches the #1 seed.  If they lose both, they'll definitely be tied with Clinton County at 5-3, having split the season series with them.  It'd then be up to Metcalfe County's results whether that matters.  If Metcalfe County were to sweep their Tuesday matchup with Russell County and 2/6 matchup at Cumberland County, they'd clinch the #1 seed in that scenario (Monroe County losing both matchups).  If Metcalfe County dropped one of the matchups, there'd be a three-way tie.  Metcalfe County would have a 3-1 record vs. the group, with Monroe County being 2-2 and Clinton County being 1-3.  That would seem to give Metcalfe County the top spot.  If Metcalfe County were to lose out and it were just Monroe County and Clinton County tied at 5-3 in district play, then it would be a coin toss between Monroe County and Clinton County for the #1 spot.  If Metcalfe County wins out (to move to 6-2) and Monroe County were to win only one of their two remaining games (to also finish 6-2), then it will come down to a coin toss between the two teams for the #1 spot.  So a whole lot in play for movement.  About the only thing that appears absolutely likely at this point is that Russell County and Cumberland County will end up in the 4/5 game with a whole lot in play for the 1-2-3 finish, but even still in that, those teams have proven capable of upsets of the higher ranked teams, so who knows if it is really over for Russell County yet.

My predicted order of finish: #1 Monroe County, #2 Metcalfe County, #3 Clinton County, #4 Russell County, #5 Cumberland County

[Purple88]

Great detail!  

I'd love to see BG pull the upset on Friday, but I just don't think it will happen.

I actually think WC could win out from here.  But we will see.

Interested to see how close the District Semifinal game will be between South and BG.

Think East could actually come out of the 15th this year.  Not easily, but at home, I like their chances.

Franklin's to lose in the 13th.  And I'll go longer shot with Clinton County.

[Colonel-Rebel Fan]

What’s happened to Greenwood?  Does SW get most of the talent from that part of the county now?

[DragonFire]

4 hours ago, Purple88 said:

Great detail!  

I'd love to see BG pull the upset on Friday, but I just don't think it will happen.

I actually think WC could win out from here.  But we will see.

Interested to see how close the District Semifinal game will be between South and BG.

Think East could actually come out of the 15th this year.  Not easily, but at home, I like their chances.

Franklin's to lose in the 13th.  And I'll go longer shot with Clinton County.

If Bowling Green doesn't beat Central, I don't see a potential loss on the schedule before the Sweet 16.  They certainly could win all the way out.

East definitely should get out of the 15th - that was a pretty surprising upset when Glasgow got them the first time.  I don't think it happens again.

[DragonFire]

3 hours ago, Colonel-Rebel Fan said:

What’s happened to Greenwood?  Does SW get most of the talent from that part of the county now?

Greenwood has traditionally still been superior to South in basketball, and had won 8 of 9 from them coming into the year.  Plus Greenwood has been to three region tournaments since South opened, while South has never been.  This year is a function of Greenwood having had eight seniors last year and just not having the talent to reload that type of loss in a single year.  South is showing signs of improving their program, we'll just have to see if it sustains.

[DragonFire]

Updating some of the scenarios from games played so far this week:

Russellville 55 Franklin-Simpson 44
-Rather surprising result to be honest.  Russellville winning puts them in the driver's seat for now (3-0), with it being especially valuable they won in Franklin.  If they beat Franklin-Simpson on Friday in Russellville, a single win over Todd County Central the following week clinches the top seed (or a Todd Central loss to Logan County).  A Franklin win on Friday pushes us towards a possible coin flip for the #1 seed, though Franklin-Simpson has the far less daunting schedule moving forward, playing Logan County on 2/10 for their final district game.
-Result keeps Todd County Central's hopes for #1 seed alive. They need Russellville to beat Franklin again on Friday, and then Todd County Central needs to beat Logan County the same night and then sweep Russellville the following week.  It would then come down to the RPI tiebreak, which Franklin-Simpson currently leads by a solid margin. Technically, if Franklin-Simpson were to lose out, then Todd County Central could move into a two-way tie with Russellville at 4-2, which they'd win head to head.  But that just seems like such a slim chance.

Warren East 66 Glasgow 46
-As expected.  Glasgow's victory over Warren East in December was very, very surprising and ultimately cost East a chance at the #1 seed.  East now cannot fall below 3 seed, locking them into 2/3 game. 
-Result keeps AC/S alive for 3 seed.  They now need to beat East on Friday to stay alive.  If they lose, seeds are locked in (1 Barren, 2 East, 3 Glasgow, 4 ACS).  If they win, they can force a tie for third and a coin flip by beating Glasgow the following Friday.

Metcalfe County 78 Russell County 58
-Russell County can now do no better than the 4 seed.  They will meet Cumberland County in the 4/5 matchup in the district tournament.  Exact seeding between the two still to be determined, but it just determines who wears the home jersey.
-Metcalfe County moves to 5-2 in the district and stays alive for the #1 seed, and potentially eliminates Clinton County's chance at the top spot (explained below).  This was Metcalfe County's largest margin over Russell County since 2008. 

Clinton County 68 Monroe County 61
-Clinton County finishes at 5-3 in district play.  They can be no worse than 3 seed.  They are a half game back of Metcalfe County and Monroe County.  They need both to lose to have a chance of getting #1 seed TECHNICALLY. A three-way tiebreaker says head to head, which Metcalfe County leads 3-1, followed by Monroe at 2-2, and Clinton County at 1-3 in games between the three teams.  That would seem to indicate that Clinton County doesn't actually have a shot at the #1 seed.
-Monroe County loses their ability to clinch the #1 seed outright without help.  They need to beat Russell County on Friday and have Metcalfe County lose to Cumberland County next Tuesday to get the top spot alone.  If both teams win, it comes down to a coin toss.  If one team loses and other wins, the winning team is #1.  If both lose, the aforementioned three-way tiebreak which would seem to give it to Metcalfe County.

[Purple88]

@DragonFireWhat is your prediction for tonight's Bowling Green at Warren Central game?

 

I just don't see Bowling Green winning this one at Warren Central.  I've been wrong many times, but just don't feel confident at all for this game.  Almost like BG is pushing all their chips now for the potential regional final game in a bid to upset Central on the neutral court.

[DragonFire]

16 minutes ago, Purple88 said:

@DragonFireWhat is your prediction for tonight's Bowling Green at Warren Central game?

 

I just don't see Bowling Green winning this one at Warren Central.  I've been wrong many times, but just don't feel confident at all for this game.  Almost like BG is pushing all their chips now for the potential regional final game in a bid to upset Central on the neutral court.

If Bowling Green is going to win one against Central (and only one), then honestly they’d be wise to do that. The RPI tiebreaker is not likely to go Bowling Green’s way, so even if they did win tonight, I don’t know that they’ll be able to get the 1 seed. A district final matchup is meaningless in the grand scheme of things. So if they’re going to win one, they should hold everything to the vest until a region final meeting. It’s the only one where Bowling Green can win something truly precious, and no one will care about the other matchups. 
 

I would anticipate that tonight’s margin would be somewhere between 8-15 points in favor of Central. Like you, I just don’t see Bowling Green winning that one with Dragons at home. They’ll have the largest crowd they’ll have all season, and and actual real live student section - something that really only happens in this game. That’ll be a tough environment for a BG team that is still quite young, though growing more experienced all the time. I think both teams are likely to shoot better than the first matchup, but unless Bowling Green gets really hot, I just don’t see the upset happening tonight. 

[Purple_Reign]

7 hours ago, DragonFire said:

If Bowling Green is going to win one against Central (and only one), then honestly they’d be wise to do that. The RPI tiebreaker is not likely to go Bowling Green’s way, so even if they did win tonight, I don’t know that they’ll be able to get the 1 seed. A district final matchup is meaningless in the grand scheme of things. So if they’re going to win one, they should hold everything to the vest until a region final meeting. It’s the only one where Bowling Green can win something truly precious, and no one will care about the other matchups. 
 

I would anticipate that tonight’s margin would be somewhere between 8-15 points in favor of Central. Like you, I just don’t see Bowling Green winning that one with Dragons at home. They’ll have the largest crowd they’ll have all season, and and actual real live student section - something that really only happens in this game. That’ll be a tough environment for a BG team that is still quite young, though growing more experienced all the time. I think both teams are likely to shoot better than the first matchup, but unless Bowling Green gets really hot, I just don’t see the upset happening tonight. 

Agreed.  I'd say the chances of a double digit loss for BG is far more likely than single digits.  The Purples never seem to play well in that gym and the rim usually doubles in size for WC.  I would like to think holding out to try and win the region final would be a smart decision, but with a young team it could be more of a benefit to win this game so that they truly believe they can compete. Going into a win or go home region final with no seniors and 0-3 season record vs your rival who has been there and done that would be very hard to overcome.