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4A #10 Central at 4A North Oldham Predictions/Updates

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#10 Central rolls into Goshen, KY to tangle with new-found district rival North Oldham.

 

Only a few short years ago, these two clashed at Central in one of the better 3A post-season games I've broadcast.

 

Fast-forward to today: North Oldham and Central are both now in class 4A. But the two teams are trending in different directions at the moment.

 

North Oldham, re-districted into arguably one of the most brutal (top-to-bottom) district in class 4A, has struggled to win in the district against #3 Franklin County (7-0), Waggener (5-2), and Shelby County (4-4). They enter the contest with a 1-7 mark on the season, and are just 0-3 in the district. A loss to Central knocks the Mustangs out of the playoff picture.

 

I'm not sure you can say the Mustangs are a "bad" team. The record is somewhat deceiving. Besides the brutal ride through the district - which this week includes a second ranked team in #10 Central - the Mustangs' non-district schedule has included 1A #10 Louisville Holy Cross, and three teams from larger classifications: 5A North Bullitt (4-4), 5A #6-ranked South Oldham, and 6A Oldham County (4-3).

 

The Mustangs' lone victory came against Western, a 5A team, but a squad that is struggling at 0-8.

 

Complicating things for North is the fact that many of the best / key athletes are younger; the top running back (Ben Becerra), the backup QB and key DB (Nick Freeland), and one of the top safeties (Blake Wetzel) are all sophomores. And the freshman class includes one of the top defenders (Bryce Grady) and the kicker, Lucas Silverthorn.

 

Key for North is how healthy they are for this game: Colby Greenert, a senior WR who is one of QB Blake McAfee's top targets, has missed some time, though he was back for the Shelby game last week. Jake Bielinski, arguably the team's top WR, has been nursing a hamstring issue all season.

 

For North, it all starts with senior QB Blake McAfee; the dual -threat QB has thrown for 700 yards this season and also leads the team in rushing with 417 yards. On the receiving end of McAfee's throws are five receivers who are all capable of being "the guy" on any given night: Seniors Hunter Hyden, Jake Bielinski, Sam Fadel, and Colby Greenert, and junior Jackson Felts.

 

Defensively, Sam Fadel and Hunter Hyden lead the team in tackles with 43 apiece.

 

Running the ball against this difficult schedule has been North's nemesis; the Mustangs managed just one yard rushing last week against Shelby County.

 

#10-ranked Central, on the other hand, is coming off a season in which they won Class 3A. They've now moved up - and are looking for more of the same in their new classification. Though just 4-4 overall on the season, the Yellowjackets are undefeated in district play, and hope to knock off North Oldham this week, which would set up a battle for the district crown next Friday against Central and #3-ranked Franklin County.

 

Central's record is also deceiving, but in a slightly different way. The Jackets have also played a brutal schedule - they've played four 6A teams (won over Meade County; lost to #4-ranked Manual by 7, lost to #5-ranked St. X, and lost to #6 ranked Fern Creek) and two 5A teams (beat Iroquois and lost to #5-ranked defending 5A state champ South Warren) to prep for the district schedule. The schedule seems to have helped: Central beat Shelby County, 14-0, and outlasted Waggener, 26-14, in their first two district contests.

 

The defense has led the way. The Jackets are giving up just 13.3 ppg, and have held their last three opponents each to under 200 yards of total offense - an impressive feat against Waggener, who averages over 40 points per game, and Shelby County, which averages 25 ppg.

 

Central will generally not beat you with the pass; they've only completed (as a team) 25 of 79 passes this season. But they generally haven't had to, with a running game that features senior running back Dayshawn Mucker, who's rushed for 830 yards on 179 attempts (103.8 / game).

 

When the Yellowjackets do pass the ball, it is generally a big play when they complete the pass. Central averages 22.3 yards per pass completion.

 

On defense, senior linebacker Benjamin Bush leads Central with 61 tackles; senior DB Deondre Howard has been a ball-hawk with four interceptions on the season.

 

The game will be broadcast live on the Pegasus Sports Network, beginning at 7 pm ET at http://www.pegasussportsky.com The game will also be archived for one year.

 

CM

I’ll be surprised if North Oldham scores. Central defense is very good.

Central is up 7 to 0.

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