Snow possible this weekend for Cincinnati/NKY

[nWo]

The chance for accumulating snow for those in the Cincinnati/NKY area is increasing. The only thing still in question is the amount. As I mentioned in another thread yesterday the models weren't in much agreement on the track of the possible snow. This latest run on three models, NAM, GFS, and Canadian are now in close agreement on the track of this system. The only question is the amounts. The accumulation amounts are from 4-10 inches. I should be able to get a good read and give my first call this evening. The timing is from Saturday morning into Saturday evening.

 

Here is what the three models are showing.

 

NAM

 

 

GFS

 

 

Canadian

 

 

One thing of note I have found this winter that the NAM has been the most accurate on snow accumulations. Now I'm not saying that is true this time but just wanted to let everyone know my thoughts.

 

I'll update later today. Have a blessed day.

[UK#1fanisback]

Snow overload!

[neilman1234]

I sure hope NAM delivers again. That looks like the best possible scenario for NKY.

[nWo]

I sure hope NAM delivers again. That looks like the best possible scenario for NKY.

The very latest NAM model information now almost exactly matches the Canadian. One word of caution. The Canadian new modeling data hasn't been released yet. In my opinion, the NAM has been the most accurate on snow accumulations this winter. We'll just have to wait and see. I want to see this afternoon's runs before I post my predictions.

[JDEaston]

Can you move this one 100 miles or so to the north just to play it safe @nWo? Thanks in advance!

[nWo]

Here's my first call for this weekend's possible wintry precipitation.

 

I'm seeing 1-5" of snow for the Cincinnati/NKY area. There will be a very short cutoff for the snow on the south side of the system. One note of caution is that on the south side there will be a good chance of freezing rain accumulations. Also, this freezing rain could bring down the snow accumulations. The possible freezing rain looks to be confined north of the I-64 corridor. Possible accumulations could range .01-.90 of an inch. That much freezing rain will cause travel problems and power outages.

 

Here is the simulated radar from the NAM model. The time range is from 4 am to 11 pm EDT.

 

 

Here is the snow accumulation map

 

 

Freezing rain accumulation.

 

 

The path of this system will be very important to all. People south of NKY should pay close attention to the path of this storm. If the storm takes a more southerly track the freezing rain and snow will move to the south. Remember this is my first call and I will be fine tuning this outlook as we get closer. I will update early Friday morning.

 

[nWo]

The 00z NAM run is showing an increase in the possible snow accumulation totals for the Cincinnati/NKY area. Possible totals now are 5-8" of snow accumulations. Also of concern in the freezing rain accumulations. It appears that there's been a slight increase in the possible totals also. Now there's the possibility of .18 to .95" freezing rain accumulations. For now, the freezing rain looks to be north of the I-64 corridor. A word of note. The freezing rain could bring down the totals of the snow accumulation if the layer of warm air moves northward. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Winter Storm watch be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning sometime today. Also, the area coverage to be expanded southward.

 

 

 

If the NAM is correct this could be a somewhat serious situation. Especially for those in the area that might get the freezing rain. I will update later this evening. Throughout the day on our Twitter page.