The Storm Prediction Center has Kentucky in a Slight Risk Area for strong to severe storms on Saturday. Western Kentucky is in an Enhanced Risk Area for the possibility of severe storms. The Storm Prediction Center is saying that a widespread significant severe weather event is likely for Saturday and Saturday night from the central and southern Plains east to the mid-Atlantic region. The primary risk look to be large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado or two.

 

 

Simulated radar 2-8 pm EDT

 

 

EHI

 

 

Supercell

 

I don't know about the rest of the state, but EKY could really use a break or we are heading towards a serious flood event.

I don't know about the rest of the state, but EKY could really use a break or we are heading towards a serious flood event.

Doesn't look like the break will be this weekend.

 

This is a good time for me to encourage people to carry flood insurance, even if you're not living in a home designated in the Special Flood Hazard Area. If you aren't in a SFHA, it's much cheaper. We had some residences flood in my hometown this weekend that aren't in the 100 year flood plain because of a drainage issue. Homeowners insurance will not cover that.

Weird weather we are having. A tornado touched down in the Ashland area last night, Ironton/Coal Grove Ohio to be exact. Had the storm tracked a few miles southeast it would have touched down in downtown Ashland.

 

Thankfully there were no injuries reported from the storm, just a lot of trees down for the most part as it hit a somewhat rural area just outside of Ironton. Tornado's in this area are not common at all and the crazy thing about this one is that here in South Ashland we only had some light rain and no lightning or thunder.

 

When the tornado warnings started coming out for the surrounding area I looked at the radar and noticed the hook echo, but thought no way that's a tornado producing storm due to the light wind and no lightning or thunder in the area. I was apparently wrong.

This looks like it could be a Saturday night into Sunday morning event. The severe weather, for now, doesn't look to enter Kentucky until late Saturday evening then transverse eastward across the state. My main area of concern is west of of I-65 mainly in WKY. From the NWS-Paducah office:

 

The amount of atmospheric instability forecast late Saturday / Saturday night (needed for severe storms) are at levels we don't often see.

 

This is a simulation from the NAM 3km CONUS model showing the atmospheric energy for Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Those in WKY should take note that after the initial energy fades it starts to build back up early Sunday morning.

 

 

For now the SPC has all of Kentucky, except WKY, in a Slight Risk Area for strong to severe storms. WKY is in and Enhanced Risk Area. There is discussion that the Enhanced Risk Area is being watched very closely for possible upgrades. I look for the hatched area to be expanded to include WKY later today.

 

 

 

 

For now the timing looks to be after 8 pm EDT for the storms to enter WKY then move across the state during the nighttime hours.

 

 

 

Summary of the possible severe weather event. Widespread thunderstorms with wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday into Saturday night from parts of the the southern and central Plains east-northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and Mid-Atlantic.

 

I will try and update later today as I will be traveling to Bowling Green later today for the weekend. Everyone should stay weather aware and go over your emergency action plan before any storms develop.

Weird weather we are having. A tornado touched down in the Ashland area last night, Ironton/Coal Grove Ohio to be exact. Had the storm tracked a few miles southeast it would have touched down in downtown Ashland.

 

Thankfully there were no injuries reported from the storm, just a lot of trees down for the most part as it hit a somewhat rural area just outside of Ironton. Tornado's in this area are not common at all and the crazy thing about this one is that here in South Ashland we only had some light rain and no lightning or thunder.

 

When the tornado warnings started coming out for the surrounding area I looked at the radar and noticed the hook echo, but thought no way that's a tornado producing storm due to the light wind and no lightning or thunder in the area. I was apparently wrong.

 

Is this what you are talking about?

 

Great...this is where we are going this weekend

I'm having internet connection issues where I staying hopefully it will be corrected by morning