How many teams do you think have a legit shot at making the playoffs?

I'll give you my thinking conference by conference

ACC

-FSU

-Clemson

-UofL

maybe: Miami

B1G

-Ohio St.

-Michigan

-Wisconsin

-Michigan St.

maybe: Nebraska, Iowa

Big 12

- Texas

-Okla.

maybe: Baylor, TCU

Pac-12

-Stanford

-Washington

maybe: USC, UCLA, Oregon

SEC

-Alabama

-Ole Miss

-Tennessee

maybe: LSU, Georgia, Florida

What I come to IMO are 13 really good teams (including ND and Houston) and 11 more halfway decent teams. I think this year it is wide open. Even the top teams have LOTS of questions. Bama: true freshmen QB and can they find a typical Bama running back. FSU: true freshmen QB. Ohio State: Only 6 returning starters. Michigan: do they have enough talent. Clemson: how can they avoid the pitfalls of OSU and FSU in the previous 2 years. I think this year is more wide open than ever before and I can realistically see 13 different teams having a legit chance at the playoff.

My feelings on that list:

 

ACC

-FSU

-Clemson

-UofL

 

I think there is no doubt all three are capable. All three are currently in the top ten, and by virtue of being in the same division, none of them will have the additional hurdle of playing the others twice. That does mean they round-robin, and none of them have the other two at home. So a stumbling block is that each has a risk of taking one loss in playing the others, which might knock them out altogether. But each is capable.

 

maybe: Miami

I place this at almost zero. Not only do I think they're not good enough, but they have a long way to make up in perception (ranked 25th currently and although that's not the same as the playoff, it's a pretty good barometer), and they don't have the schedule to do it. Florida State is the only power they play, with a road trip to Notre Dame added on. Other than that, their schedule is Charmin soft. I doubt very much they beat Florida State, and I'd bet the farm that they wouldn't beat any of the Atlantic three mentioned above in a neutral field title game. I don't believe any of the ACC outside those three has a prayer.

 

B1G

-Ohio St.

-Michigan

-Wisconsin

-Michigan St.

 

These all seem like candidates, though I feel like that'd be a real tall order for any of them, but in particular Wisconsin and Michigan State. I don't think either is good enough to beat all three of the others. Wisconsin in particular has to play both Michigan State and Michigan on the road, in back to back weeks, and then after a bye week, they host Ohio State. And then they play Iowa on the road a week later. I place Wisconsin's chance at navigating that unbeaten at roughly zero. And if they did manage to make the title game, they're going to have to play either Ohio State, Michigan, or Michigan State again. They just need some spacing IMO. Michigan State at least gets all three at home, and they have some spacing. But I just flat don't think they're good enough to beat both Ohio State and Michigan. I'd place a realistic chance on both Ohio State and Michigan. The schedule doesn't really set up well for either, as Michigan has to take road trips to Michigan State, Iowa, and Ohio State in three of the final five weeks, and Ohio State has to visit Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Michigan State, and play Michigan right after Michigan State. Any of those teams make it unbeaten, they're in, because they earned the heck out of it.

 

maybe: Nebraska, Iowa

Iowa, yes, Nebraska, heck no. Iowa is good, and they get both Wisconsin and Michigan at home. They'll have to overcome one of those four teams above in a Big Ten title game, but I could believe they could maybe do that. Their perception is high enough to get into the playoff with those three quality wins, and the rest of their schedule is weak enough that they should have absolutely no other stumbles. Nebraska has to contend with Oregon, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Iowa. The three Big Ten games are all on the road. Wisconsin and Ohio State are back to back. No chance.

 

Big 12

- Texas

-Okla.

I think Oklahoma has their work cut out for them, but they do have three home games against Ohio State, Texas, and Baylor. If they're going, they really need Houston to stumble at least once. It'd be hard to justify OU going over Houston all things equal. Texas has a chance if they're unbeaten, but they only have Oklahoma and Baylor of any real skill the rest of the way. With not much chance to impress, I don't know if they'll have the juice. I wouldn't be blown away for an unbeaten Texas to be left out. If they lose at all, they're done.

 

maybe: Baylor, TCU

TCU has no prayer after losing to Arkansas. They're out. Baylor has a three week stretch where they have road games at Texas and Oklahoma sandwiched around hosting TCU. That's a tough stretch, and I'd be surprised if they went through that unscathed. If they managed to, then I think they've got a shot, though like Miami in the ACC, they have a long way to go in raising their perception. I doubt they do it.

 

I think the Big 12 is a candidate to be left out altogether if no one makes it unbeaten.

 

Pac-12

-Stanford

-Washington

If either one of these teams goes unbeaten, they're in. And each has a chance of doing it. Stanford is the better team, but also has the tougher schedule, with road trips to Washington, Notre Dame, and Oregon on tap, in addition to USC this week at home. They also have the Pac 12 title game, though only USC could raise their profile enough to be a significant boost to them. I could see a one loss Stanford team going, but it would be best if they lost to Washington, but would then need Washington to lose twice so they could still win the conference.

 

maybe: USC, UCLA, Oregon

USC and UCLA are done. USC is not going to be able to overcome the size of that loss to Bama. They have some good matchups to make their way back up the polls, but into the playoffs? No. UCLA lost to A&M, and basically all they have left on the schedule are Stanford and USC, maybe Utah. Not enough to overcome that loss. Oregon hasn't looked very sharp so far, but they do have the benefit of playing Washington and Stanford at home, in addition to a road game to USC. They also get Nebraska in a road game this week. Maybe Utah can help raise their profile. Plus whoever else in the title game. They really are a maybe, but realistically, I think no.

 

SEC

-Alabama

-Ole Miss

-Tennessee

 

Bama is obvious. Ole Miss could maybe overcome the FSU loss, but they will definitely want a lot of their opponents to win out otherwise. And they'd probably like FSU to go unbeaten. With road trips to Arkansas, LSU, and A&M on the schedule in addition to the home game with Alabama, odds are low they finish the rest unscathed. COULD Tennessee go? If unbeaten, sure. Realistically, nah, they're not going to make it. They're just flat out not good enough. Win the East, sure, but beat Alabama - possibly having to do it twice? Nope.

 

maybe: LSU, Georgia, Florida

 

I'm inclined to give LSU a shot. They have a favorable schedule with both Ole Miss and Alabama at home (and a bye week in between to boot), fringe teams Florida, Arkansas, and A&M on the road to give some nice profile raising road wins, and they're probably talented enough to have a shot at actually doing that. Georgia and Florida are in the same boat as Tennessee. They probably could make it if unbeaten, but what are the real odds of that? Georgia has a road trip to Ole Miss and would have to contend with an SEC West team in the championship - a title they haven't won in 11 years. They have a first year coach, and have looked absolutely terrible in two games. They nearly lost to Nicholls State. Florida at least has a favorable schedule, right up to when you consider they'd play at FSU and then probably Alabama (or another SEC West power) in the championship game the next week. That from a team that really ain't all that good.

 

I feel like Notre Dame's loss probably takes them out of the running. Houston's best friends in the whole world right now are Oklahoma and Louisville. Houston is the only non-Power 5 I think has a real shot. If both win all the rest of their games (in Louisville's case just losing to Houston), and Houston takes care of their schedule, not only do they have a shot, I think they're going.

 

 

To sum up, teams I could realistically see making the playoffs (that is to say have the profile and I believe could actually win enough to make it)

Alabama

Clemson

Florida State

Houston

Iowa

Louisville

Michigan

Ohio State

Stanford

Washington

 

An outside shot, but I either don't think they win enough or have enough of a profile to make it:

LSU

Oklahoma

Ole Miss

Texas

 

If anyone outside of those 14 teams made it, I'd be blown away.

A major sleeper, but one not mentioned yet....How about Arkansas?

 

They already have a road win over a good, not great, TCU. The schedule is ridiculously favorable in that they get A&M, Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU, and Florida all at home and they avoid Georgia and Tennessee. The one road test is @ an slightly better than average Auburn.

Papa's peerless prediction - four teams will make the playoffs.

My list would be far smaller to actually have a shot at the Final 4:

 

FSU, Clemson, Louisville -- ACC (3)

 

Ohio State and Michigan -- Big 10 (2) [Michigan State is going to disappoint a lot of people this year...this isn't the same Sparty]

 

Texas and Oklahoma -- Big 12 (2)

 

Washington -- Pac 12 (1) [stanford's schedule is too tough, which has been discussed, and UCLA is fraudulent]

 

Alabama and Florida -- SEC (2) [Ole Miss has little to no shot, LSU will make it interesting, but nope, not buying Tennessee at all]

 

Houston and Notre Dame -- non power 5 (2)

 

I'll take all 4 coming from that 12 and feel very good about my chances.

My feelings on that list:

 

ACC

-FSU

-Clemson

-UofL

 

I think there is no doubt all three are capable. All three are currently in the top ten, and by virtue of being in the same division, none of them will have the additional hurdle of playing the others twice. That does mean they round-robin, and none of them have the other two at home. So a stumbling block is that each has a risk of taking one loss in playing the others, which might knock them out altogether. But each is capable.

 

maybe: Miami

I place this at almost zero. Not only do I think they're not good enough, but they have a long way to make up in perception (ranked 25th currently and although that's not the same as the playoff, it's a pretty good barometer), and they don't have the schedule to do it. Florida State is the only power they play, with a road trip to Notre Dame added on. Other than that, their schedule is Charmin soft. I doubt very much they beat Florida State, and I'd bet the farm that they wouldn't beat any of the Atlantic three mentioned above in a neutral field title game. I don't believe any of the ACC outside those three has a prayer.

 

B1G

-Ohio St.

-Michigan

-Wisconsin

-Michigan St.

 

These all seem like candidates, though I feel like that'd be a real tall order for any of them, but in particular Wisconsin and Michigan State. I don't think either is good enough to beat all three of the others. Wisconsin in particular has to play both Michigan State and Michigan on the road, in back to back weeks, and then after a bye week, they host Ohio State. And then they play Iowa on the road a week later. I place Wisconsin's chance at navigating that unbeaten at roughly zero. And if they did manage to make the title game, they're going to have to play either Ohio State, Michigan, or Michigan State again. They just need some spacing IMO. Michigan State at least gets all three at home, and they have some spacing. But I just flat don't think they're good enough to beat both Ohio State and Michigan. I'd place a realistic chance on both Ohio State and Michigan. The schedule doesn't really set up well for either, as Michigan has to take road trips to Michigan State, Iowa, and Ohio State in three of the final five weeks, and Ohio State has to visit Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Michigan State, and play Michigan right after Michigan State. Any of those teams make it unbeaten, they're in, because they earned the heck out of it.

 

maybe: Nebraska, Iowa

Iowa, yes, Nebraska, heck no. Iowa is good, and they get both Wisconsin and Michigan at home. They'll have to overcome one of those four teams above in a Big Ten title game, but I could believe they could maybe do that. Their perception is high enough to get into the playoff with those three quality wins, and the rest of their schedule is weak enough that they should have absolutely no other stumbles. Nebraska has to contend with Oregon, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Iowa. The three Big Ten games are all on the road. Wisconsin and Ohio State are back to back. No chance.

 

Big 12

- Texas

-Okla.

I think Oklahoma has their work cut out for them, but they do have three home games against Ohio State, Texas, and Baylor. If they're going, they really need Houston to stumble at least once. It'd be hard to justify OU going over Houston all things equal. Texas has a chance if they're unbeaten, but they only have Oklahoma and Baylor of any real skill the rest of the way. With not much chance to impress, I don't know if they'll have the juice. I wouldn't be blown away for an unbeaten Texas to be left out. If they lose at all, they're done.

 

maybe: Baylor, TCU

TCU has no prayer after losing to Arkansas. They're out. Baylor has a three week stretch where they have road games at Texas and Oklahoma sandwiched around hosting TCU. That's a tough stretch, and I'd be surprised if they went through that unscathed. If they managed to, then I think they've got a shot, though like Miami in the ACC, they have a long way to go in raising their perception. I doubt they do it.

 

I think the Big 12 is a candidate to be left out altogether if no one makes it unbeaten.

 

Pac-12

-Stanford

-Washington

If either one of these teams goes unbeaten, they're in. And each has a chance of doing it. Stanford is the better team, but also has the tougher schedule, with road trips to Washington, Notre Dame, and Oregon on tap, in addition to USC this week at home. They also have the Pac 12 title game, though only USC could raise their profile enough to be a significant boost to them. I could see a one loss Stanford team going, but it would be best if they lost to Washington, but would then need Washington to lose twice so they could still win the conference.

 

maybe: USC, UCLA, Oregon

USC and UCLA are done. USC is not going to be able to overcome the size of that loss to Bama. They have some good matchups to make their way back up the polls, but into the playoffs? No. UCLA lost to A&M, and basically all they have left on the schedule are Stanford and USC, maybe Utah. Not enough to overcome that loss. Oregon hasn't looked very sharp so far, but they do have the benefit of playing Washington and Stanford at home, in addition to a road game to USC. They also get Nebraska in a road game this week. Maybe Utah can help raise their profile. Plus whoever else in the title game. They really are a maybe, but realistically, I think no.

 

SEC

-Alabama

-Ole Miss

-Tennessee

 

Bama is obvious. Ole Miss could maybe overcome the FSU loss, but they will definitely want a lot of their opponents to win out otherwise. And they'd probably like FSU to go unbeaten. With road trips to Arkansas, LSU, and A&M on the schedule in addition to the home game with Alabama, odds are low they finish the rest unscathed. COULD Tennessee go? If unbeaten, sure. Realistically, nah, they're not going to make it. They're just flat out not good enough. Win the East, sure, but beat Alabama - possibly having to do it twice? Nope.

 

maybe: LSU, Georgia, Florida

 

I'm inclined to give LSU a shot. They have a favorable schedule with both Ole Miss and Alabama at home (and a bye week in between to boot), fringe teams Florida, Arkansas, and A&M on the road to give some nice profile raising road wins, and they're probably talented enough to have a shot at actually doing that. Georgia and Florida are in the same boat as Tennessee. They probably could make it if unbeaten, but what are the real odds of that? Georgia has a road trip to Ole Miss and would have to contend with an SEC West team in the championship - a title they haven't won in 11 years. They have a first year coach, and have looked absolutely terrible in two games. They nearly lost to Nicholls State. Florida at least has a favorable schedule, right up to when you consider they'd play at FSU and then probably Alabama (or another SEC West power) in the championship game the next week. That from a team that really ain't all that good.

 

I feel like Notre Dame's loss probably takes them out of the running. Houston's best friends in the whole world right now are Oklahoma and Louisville. Houston is the only non-Power 5 I think has a real shot. If both win all the rest of their games (in Louisville's case just losing to Houston), and Houston takes care of their schedule, not only do they have a shot, I think they're going.

 

 

To sum up, teams I could realistically see making the playoffs (that is to say have the profile and I believe could actually win enough to make it)

Alabama

Clemson

Florida State

Houston

Iowa

Louisville

Michigan

Ohio State

Stanford

Washington

 

An outside shot, but I either don't think they win enough or have enough of a profile to make it:

LSU

Oklahoma

Ole Miss

Texas

 

If anyone outside of those 14 teams made it, I'd be blown away.

I agree with most of what you said. But I think you are acting like there are going to be about 3 or 4 teams that are going to be undefeated. I think we will lucky to have one undefeated team and if I had to place a significant amount of money on it I would say zero undefeated teams. The two that you counted out that get me are ND and TCU. Both lost to good teams on the road and both will have ample opportunities to prove they belong, especially ND.

TCU lost at home....

I agree with most of what you said. But I think you are acting like there are going to be about 3 or 4 teams that are going to be undefeated. I think we will lucky to have one undefeated team and if I had to place a significant amount of money on it I would say zero undefeated teams. The two that you counted out that get me are ND and TCU. Both lost to good teams on the road and both will have ample opportunities to prove they belong, especially ND.

 

I think it's a stretch to say Arkansas is a good team. They're... ok. The point is TCU has already taken a nonconference loss and they have some tough conference games that I don't expect them to win all of. If they're a two loss team, they will not be in the playoffs.

 

Norte Dame is a similar qualm. Sure they have opportunity, but I highly doubt they win out. Michigan State, Stanford, and USC are some tough opponents. But on top of that, those are really their only tough games left. Are they really enough to raise them to a playoff?

 

If the argument is about who could theoretically make it, any team that wins out obviously could make the playoffs. It's all about who I believe will/could win enough.