April 22, 201610 yr As it looks now we could be in for a period of strong to severe storms. This looks to start on Tuesday with the best chance to see severe storms being in Western Kentucky Tuesday evening. Then on the day Wednesday the storms could fire up again with the main threat being Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours. On Wednesday the main threat area moves eastward but looks to remain west of I-65. For now I'm concentrating on the part of state from around Owensboro to Louisville. But this also could go down towards Bowling Green. We are a little less than a week away but the weather should be followed closely by everyone. Could see a tornado outbreak next week but it still remains to be seen if that situation will develop in Kentucky. Tuesday evening Wednesday evening
April 24, 201610 yr Doesn't it seem like it has been an extremely lite tornado year so far across the country, seems like the majority have been in the South instead of Midwest?
April 24, 201610 yr Author Saturday evening update: The NAM model is now able to show the possible weather from Tuesday into Wednesday. As of now conditions look to start being favorable for the development of strong to severe storms in WKY late Tuesday morning. Most of the rest of Kentucky from WKY to about the I-75 corridor will see conditions favorable for the development of storms really get going around mid afternoon. By early evening these conditions look to be over most if not all of Kentucky. For Tuesday afternoon the main threats look to be damaging winds, hail and cloud to ground lightning. An isolated tornado or two can't be ruled out. Tuesday evening into the night conditions look to go downhill. Conditions really look good for the development of severe storms and maybe even super-cell storm development. The greatest threat area look to be centered in central Ky and the Louisville are. This also looks like it could last into the overnight hours for parts of NKY and EKY. Tuesday around 11 am Tuesday 8 pm
April 24, 201610 yr Author Doesn't it seem like it has been an extremely lite tornado year so far across the country, seems like the majority have been in the South instead of Midwest? You are correct but that looks to be changing starting next week.
April 24, 201610 yr Author Let me add this. It looks like we could be seeing a chance for strong to severe storms everyday starting Tuesday through Thursday evening.
April 24, 201610 yr Author @All In Just released this morning. From the NWS-Louisville Luckily, it has been very quiet this spring regarding severe thunderstorms. In fact, this is the least amount of severe thunderstorm/tornado warnings issued by NWS offices to start a year in Kentucky since at least 1996! Don't lose awareness though, some strong thunderstorms will be possible by the middle of the week.
April 24, 201610 yr @All In Just released this morning. From the NWS-Louisville Luckily, it has been very quiet this spring regarding severe thunderstorms. In fact, this is the least amount of severe thunderstorm/tornado warnings issued by NWS offices to start a year in Kentucky since at least 1996! Don't lose awareness though, some strong thunderstorms will be possible by the middle of the week. [ATTACH=CONFIG]55739[/ATTACH] Usually you would think after the non-winter that we had this past year with above norm temps and little precip that it would be followed by stormy months of rain and above norm temps. We've had and will continue to have the above normal temps it looks like from long range forecasts, but we are basically into May without a thunderstorm or tornado warning. Do you foresee a hot,humid, dry summer like I keep telling people we will have? I know 5-6 years ago we had high school baseball games pushed later into the evening for start times because of the heat index in May and we hardly mowed from June on, is that what we are looking at for this year?
April 24, 201610 yr Author Usually you would think after the non-winter that we had this past year with above norm temps and little precip that it would be followed by stormy months of rain and above norm temps. We've had and will continue to have the above normal temps it looks like from long range forecasts, but we are basically into May without a thunderstorm or tornado warning. Do you foresee a hot,humid, dry summer like I keep telling people we will have? I know 5-6 years ago we had high school baseball games pushed later into the evening for start times because of the heat index in May and we hardly mowed from June on, is that what we are looking at for this year? Actually it is really true to form under an El Nino year. Our weather is still being influenced by El nino so the low severe storm/tornadoes are just about right. For now what I'm seeing is a warm summer but an equal chance of above/below normal precipitation. One thing that needs to be watched is the Climate Prediciton Center has issued a La Nina watch so things could change.
April 24, 201610 yr What's the weather look like for the Owensboro area over this coming weekend? It's the All A State softball tourney Saturday and Sunday.
April 24, 201610 yr Author What's the weather look like for the Owensboro area over this coming weekend? It's the All A State softball tourney Saturday and Sunday. Hi temps in the mid to upper 50's on Saturday then they should go up to the mid to lower 70's on Sunday. Also a 40-50% chance of rain Saturday that goes up to around 80% on Sunday. The GFS model is showing, for now a chance of seeing between 1 to 1.5" of accumulating rain through Sunday.
April 24, 201610 yr Author Sunday evening update: Tuesday early afternoon parts of WKY and those north of I-64 could see conditions favorable for strong storms. The conditions look to go downhill later in the afternoon into the evening hours. Especially for those in WKY. Also the chance of strong storms will spread south of I-64 to around the TN boarder. Those in the NKY area should pay close attention to the weather on Tuesday. For now it looks like the best chance for a couple of tornadoes is centered in this area Tuesday evening into the early morning hours. I'm seeing on the GFS Significant Tornado Parameter values around 1.6. This means that tornadoes of F-2 strength or greater could be possible. I'm watching it closely. Then on Wednesday we could see storms reform again.
April 24, 201610 yr Author FYI Tuesday and Wednesday is the 5th anniversary of the Super Tornado Outbreak in 2011. Not saying we'll see anything like that.
April 25, 201610 yr Author The area where conditions will be favorable for strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours looks like has grown some. It now seems to have moved to include most of Kentucky down to about the Cumberland PKWY. Looks like NKY in the early afternoon then it moves southward in the early evening hours. The good thing is the chance for tornadoes has seemed to diminish some but it is still there. Now looks like the best chance will be in WKY and SCKY. I'm going to just go day by day because it looks like we could see strong to severe storms each day through Friday. I'm watching it closely. I'll update in the morning.
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