March 3, 201511 yr The Bailey deal didn't price them out of the Cueto (or at the time Latos) sweepstakes. Those guys priced the Reds out of them. Cueto is going to command well over $20M per assuming he doesn't have any injury issues this year. At his age, with his injury history, a team like the Reds can't afford to get into that bidding war. Latos would most likely command similar dollars as Cueto due to the fact that he's been much more durable, and is younger, without a large drop off in talent. Bailey was the guy they could get, so they went for it with him. I have no issue with that.
March 3, 201511 yr Didn't Homer get his deal the same year Kershaw signed his monster extension? Deal in the same year? Yes. Comparable deals at all? No. There is no comparison between Bailey and Kershaw in regards to talent OR contracts. Not sure why you bring him up.
March 3, 201511 yr Serious question, do you think these guys have their agents just randomly come up with numbers to start the negotiating process? They use data analysis, research, and trends to determine a target price that they'll be able to get on the open market. When the Reds and Bailey agreed to their deal most national pundits said it was a good deal for both sides, a slight discount from what he would've gotten had he hit the market. Do you really think these guys just make that stuff up? This is why I believe it should be based off performance. You know good and well he's not worth it, regardless of what some computer analysis is saying. If it was performance based it'd be nowhere near that.
March 3, 201511 yr Deal in the same year? Yes. Comparable deals at all? No. There is no comparison between Bailey and Kershaw in regards to talent OR contracts. Not sure why you bring him up. I bring it up because Kershaw has proven (as a regular season guy) that he is worth it (his post season stats say otherwise). Bailey has thrown 2 no hitters, which is a feat, but that's it. His stats do not justify the value placed on him. Again, the market or computers can say what a guy should be worth, but it should be a performance thing that gets them those contracts.
March 3, 201511 yr This is why I believe it should be based off performance. You know good and well he's not worth it, regardless of what some computer analysis is saying. If it was performance based it'd be nowhere near that. His performance is what drives the analysis. His numbers say he was worth it. You can say otherwise as much as you want, but at the end of the day, the market, and his contract show you're incorrect.
March 3, 201511 yr Years W L W/L% ERA 8 Yrs 58 50 .537 4.17 If that says he's worth 105 million then the market needs to have a system update.
March 3, 201511 yr You look at career numbers and W's and L's to determine a pitcher's value? ERA, IP, WHIP, OBA, SO/9, SO/W, and WAR are the most critical factors. And the recent history is much more relevant than what happened 4 & 5 years ago.
March 3, 201511 yr I bring it up because Kershaw has proven (as a regular season guy) that he is worth it (his post season stats say otherwise). Bailey has thrown 2 no hitters, which is a feat, but that's it. His stats do not justify the value placed on him. Again, the market or computers can say what a guy should be worth, but it should be a performance thing that gets them those contracts. And Kershaw was paid A LOT more more than Bailey because he is worth that amount. Bailey was paid slightly less than what he is worth. You bringing up Kershaw and trying to use him and his contract in a debate about Bailey tells me all I need to know.
March 3, 201511 yr And Kershaw was paid A LOT more more than Bailey because he is worth that amount. Bailey was paid slightly less than what he is worth. You bringing up Kershaw and trying to use him and his contract in a debate about Bailey tells me all I need to know. And everybody agreeing that Bailey is worth that much, tells me all I need to know.
March 3, 201511 yr And everybody agreeing that Bailey is worth that much, tells me all I need to know. Everybody including baseball executives, analysts, fans, owners, GMs, etc. all say he is worth that much because that is what he is worth in today's business of baseball. So I guess you must know more than ALL of them.
March 3, 201511 yr And everybody agreeing that Bailey is worth that much, tells me all I need to know. You used his wins/loss record to evaluate his value. Come on, everyone knows that's meaningless when judging a pitcher's worth.
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