Correct any mistakes I’ve made, but …

 

the Litkenhous ratings of the 10 best teams that these four highly rated N.Ky. teams have beaten:

 

Simon Kenton (20-1):

88.6

87.8

86.7

86.1

85.9

85

83.7

83.6

82.6

82.6

(Zero teams above 90)

 

Highlands (20-3):

95.2

88.6

88.1

87.8

86.7

86.5

86.1

82.6

81

80.8

(one team above 90)

 

Holmes (22-1):

100.9

96.4

88.6

88.1

87.3

86.7

86.1

85.6

85

81

(two teams above 90)

 

Holy Cross (21-3):

108.1

102.2

102.1

100.9

95.2

94.3

92

88.7

86.7

85.8

(seven teams above 90)

 

Against top 20 teams:

Simon Kenton: 0-0

Highlands: 0-2

Holmes: 2-1

Holy Cross: 4-0

 

Against top 30 teams:

Simon Kenton: 0-0

Highlands: 1-2

Holmes: 2-1

Holy Cross: 7-1 (not counting a 1-1 record against two highly ranked Indiana schools)

 

Don’t like Litkenhous?

 

Using the Cantrall ratings, versus the top 25:

Simon Kenton: 0-0

Highlands: 1-2

Holmes: 2-1

Holy Cross: 7-0

 

Using the latest BGP rankings, versus the top 20:

Simon Kenton: 0-0

Highlands: 1-2

Holmes: 1-1

Holy Cross: 5-1

 

Using the latest MaxPreps rankings, vs. the top 25

Simon Kenton: 1-0

Highlands: 0-2

Holmes: 2-1

Holy Cross: 5-1

 

Now before anybody gets bent out of shape, I'm not predicting any outcome of any future game. Just presenting facts for the ongoing discussion of polls, and strength of schedules.

None of the rankings mean anything unless you actually put thought into it. HHS lost to HC in double OT and HC has several more wins over top teams. Does that mean if they play again, you can use that info to predict any kind of outcome? No way! Rankings, who you beat, who those teams beat, margin of victory mean nothing when they tip it up on the floor. If you've seen the teams play, that's what would tell you who is good and who can compete. I can tell you that HHS is 0-2 against Holmes and HC. Do you think anyone that saw those games from each side of the court doesn't feel those 3 are a dead heat and anyone of them could easily beat the other one on any given day. If you think the record between those 3 teams will have anything to do with predicting who will win the 9th, you better go buy a lottery ticket!

 

That's not targeted at Hittheboards, just a general statement.

And yet the algorithm that each of these sites uses still places them behind Holmes!?!? Conspiracy!! I guess the other 12 teams that Holmes has beaten aren't that bad. Or my favorite maybe HC should have taken care of buisness against Brossart!!! One bad loss for Holy Cross zero bad losses for Holmes!! You all seem to want to forget that when it comes to discussions!

Honestly, now after all the dust settled and they have all played each other, absolutely nothing has changed in my mind. It's exactly what we thought. It depends on who comes to play that night and who's style of play dictates the game on that night. And what type of officiating is called on that given night could also have an impact. Calling it close or letting them play has a few advantages different ways for each team.

I agree completely, RCC9. Hence my caveat, which was a sincere one. Any of those three teams could win the 9th. Easily.

 

So could several other teams, were they to get hot. I have the utmost respect for Ryle, Notre Dame, NewCath, Boone and others. Always have. And fouls, injuries, sickness, cold shooting hands, hot shooting hands -- at any moment any of those factors could rear their heads and dictate the outcome of a game or games. And we all know that the region match-ups could be a huge factor.

 

But any poll or any person's opinion is a point-in-time snapshot of a season and a team's performance to that point. And there's no denying that ... to date ... one team has been tested more severely than the others.

 

And there's also no denying that that team has passed that test.

I agree completely, RCC9. Hence my caveat, which was a sincere one. Any of those three teams could win the 9th. Easily.

 

So could several other teams, were they to get hot. I have the utmost respect for Ryle, Notre Dame, NewCath, Boone and others. Always have. And fouls, injuries, sickness, cold shooting hands, hot shooting hands -- at any moment any of those factors could rear their heads and dictate the outcome of a game or games. And we all know that the region match-ups could be a huge factor.

 

But any poll or any person's opinion is a point-in-time snapshot of a season and a team's performance to that point. And there's no denying that ... to date ... one team has been tested more severely than the others.

 

And there's also no denying that that team has passed that test.

 

Couldn't agree more. They passed that test and others in my opinion. With that said, they know and respect as well as anyone that HHS and Holmes are right there. That's why all the talk between those three teams has slowed tremendously. They all have mutual respect for each other.

 

And when you add those other teams, I agree. Match ups could be a factor in the region.

I honestly can't wait for the region. It will be an unreal tournament this year. I just want the rest of the season to be over and let's start tomorrow! I actually think some of the upper teams are feeling the same way right now.

Highlands' problem is that Holmes and HC are in the same district and will be on opposite sides of the bracket in the 9th tourney.

It will also be a problem for one of them!

It will also be a problem for one of them!

If one is chalking the 9th tourney this far out, it seems to me that HC is clearly the favorite ... more so because of their size and guard play than the fact that they squeezed out narrow wins vs. Holmes and Highlands.

If one is chalking the 9th tourney this far out, it seems to me that HC is clearly the favorite ... more so because of their size and guard play than the fact that they squeezed out narrow wins vs. Holmes and Highlands.

 

Anyone can call anyone a "favorite". The facts are that all three are just as good as the other one. And two of those teams will have to play two of the other teams to win it. And we will have no idea which team will only have to play one of the top three until the drawing. It makes no difference who wins the 35th. They may not have any advantage over the runner up of the 35th.

People shouldn’t insert words or meanings that aren't present in what I write. I never alleged "conspiracy." Read my post. Re-read it. Read it again. Read everything I've ever written. Note the threads that I've chosen to weigh in on.

 

(All that reflects a philosophy.)

 

If you’re asking a serious question, then my answer is that I suspect margin of victory and points scored weigh into rankings. Holmes has superior numbers in those regards, per the team's style of play. The Bulldogs overwhelm teams up top, especially teams whose guards can't handle pressure. That leads to easy baskets. Higher scores. Higher margins of victory. Holy Cross' style is a more deliberate, more methodical one. Especially against quality teams. Fewer shots. Fewer points. Less margin of victory.

 

In terms of poll factors, advantage Holmes.

 

Same thing for losses. Holy Cross didn't "take care of business" against Bishop Brossart, as was gleefully pointed it. I know that. The world knows that. The players and coaches know that. Holy Cross was decimated by injuries and sickness. But the girls on the court were good enough to win the game. They didn't step up. Brossart's girls out-shot, out-played, out-passed, out-dribbled and out-hustled Holy Cross. They deserved to win. They played better. Heck, on that night, they WERE better. Holy Cross was ice-cold on offense on a strange court. But those games happen, and the HC players learned from it. They're even inspired by it. So maybe it wasn't a bad thing.

 

So again, OBVIOUSLY that loss counts against Holy Cross in any ranking.

 

Advantage Holmes.

 

But conceding those points (that I already knew) doesn't weaken my premise.

 

Why?

 

Because my premise wasn’t that Holy Cross is ranked too low, or that any of the other three teams are ranked too high. Or that any team is better than the other.

 

Au contraire, my premise was only that Holy Cross has played more quality opponents and has beaten more quality opponents.

 

Read my actual words.

 

The numbers speak for themselves.

 

And toward that issue, your point that "the other 12 teams Holmes has beaten" must not be "that bad" doesn’t recognize, that, um, all of those 12 other teams are ranked UNDER the ten I listed. In many cases, FAR under. And, consequently, under those on the corresponding Holy Cross side. For example, the 11th best team Holmes has beaten is a 79.8. The 11th best team that Holy Cross has beaten is an 85. The 12th best team that Holmes beat is a 76. The 12th best team that Holy Cross beat is an 84. The 13th best team for Holmes is a 70.4, for Holy Cross an 81 (twice). And so on and on.

 

(… again, forgive any mistakes, if you find any).

 

And do you want to match the out-of-state schools? Holy Cross played Lawrence North (at the time, No. 2 in Indiana 4A, with four D1 commits) and Oregon-Davis (at the time, No. 3 in Indiana A). Holmes played Fort Walton Beach and Archbishop Ryan. And uh, Taft of Ohio.

 

So I guess in terms of poll rankings, strength of schedule is advantage Holy Cross.

 

And that was my point. My premise was that Holy Cross has beaten more quality teams than the other three schools. Substantially more. The Indians have faced bigger tests. (And 19 of its 24 games on the road).

 

And if you can't concede that, then I guess facts are meaningless ...

 

Now, the bottom line?

 

As I’m stated, I agree with everybody who says that we have a lot of quality basketball ahead of us in the 9th region, with a lot of talent, and any of the "H's" (and to a lesser extent others) have a chance to go downstate.

Edited February 5, 201511 yr by hittheboards19
thought i had a noun-verb disagreement

This conversation would not be taking place if Holy Cross would have handled buisness!! A little bit of bad out ways a lot of good no different than life!! The rankings and rating system reflects that! You are right point differential does help Holmes and I'm right that bad loss hurts Cross! You have no argument because of it!!

This conversation would not be taking place if Holy Cross would have handled buisness!! A little bit of bad out ways a lot of good no different than life!! The rankings and rating system reflects that! You are right point differential does help Holmes and I'm right that bad loss hurts Cross! You have no argument because of it!!

 

 

Every thread is all about Holmes for you isn't it? The point trying to proven here is yes Holmes has beat the teams on there schedule and are 22-1 that loss coming to the team you absolutely hate it's pretty obvious, and can't admit have played an outrageous better amount of competition then your Dawgs, get off the puppy wagon for a while and look at the big picture a thread about 4 teams and there strength of schedule not Just Holmes!

 

Now hittheboards19 great thread and information thanks for sharing! :thumb::thumb:

And you do understand that all the wins no matter what level of completion factor into these great rankings right? And that's great but.... Holmes loss to Holy cross actually lowered their point values!! Had we not lost our point values would be higher and HC would be lower. That's how this works you want to discount the losses to East Carter and Brossart but they have as much bearing as any of the wins! And in my opinion you cancel out at least 2 good wins with those losses!!