First let me start with the low pressure system track that look to cause us some problems over the upcoming weekend. This low pressure system looks to maybe hit parts of Kentucky twice. Friday overnight into Saturday morning it is projected to be over the pan handle of Florida, Southern Alabama. This will give parts of Kentucky a good chance of snow overnight Friday into Saturday morning.

 

Then it is projected to move along and just off of the North Carolina east coast Sunday night into Monday. It will pick up more moisture from the Atlantic .This is the second hit for mostly the eastern parts of Kentucky.

 

Edited January 22, 201511 yr by nWo

For Friday night into the day on Saturday projected snow fall amounts:

 

South and east of a line from Hopkinsville northeastward through Morgantown, Elizabethtown, Frankfort to just south of Maysville 1-2"

 

The area on a line from between Richmond and Berea, Stanton, Louisa towards the northeast and then bordered on the south towards the southeast from Conway through London then around Barbourville 2-4".

 

It also seems that the ice threat has diminished.

 

Let me say I will be fine tuning this forecast as we get closer.

 

I will post an update later this afternoon.

This is the chance of snow map for around 8 am Saturday morning. Everyone can see there is upwards to 70-80% chance of snow especially in the area I outlined.

 

here's the morning update. First the track of the low pressure system has changed. It is projected to move more inland that previously projected. This means that it will have less moisture to work with so the projected snow fall accumulations have dropped.

 

 

Now it seems that the most snow will fall in a time window from 7 am to 1 pm Saturday. 1-2 inches for areas in Kentucky from about the i-65 Corridor towards the east. There also seems to be a short cutoff for the accumulating snows. The northern boundary is from around I-65 pass Bardstown to Frankfort towards the northeast and extends north of Maysville. The west edge is projected to go almost straight south from around Bardstown then just west of Thompkinsville.

 

The snow fall may continue a little longer in Eastern Kentucky. Those in that part of the state may see some accumulations around t 2" to 3".

 

Snowfall chance around 7 am Saturday

 

 

Snowfall chance around 1 pm Saturday

 

 

There is a very slight chance for some freezing rain Sunday Morning in a pocket around Richmond, Berea, Stanton and Jackson. This is only a around a 5% chance but it is still there.

 

I'm also keeping a close eye on Monday. If everyone would, take note of the low pressure system diving down from the north west of Kentucky and then the low off of Virginia. The one low in black is projected to be real close if not on top of northern Kentucky. I'm watching to see if they will merge and pull more moisture back our way. This could effect any snow we get Monday into Tuesday.

 

I'll be back later today with an update. Take care.

Here is the projected chance for for Monday. This is centered around 7 am. As everyone should note. Most of the precip. is projected to be from I-75 towards the east. The highest chance is in EKY. It is also showing that the low will pull moisture from the low off the Virginia Cost. Too early to tell how much snow we may see.

 

Thanks for your work, nWo. I've got some unavoidable travel on Friday from Bardstown to Louisville and then to NoKy. Hoping for good luck then, as well as for when I come back Monday morning.

I'm good with the forecast for Saturday. I don't plan on any changes.

 

I'm watching Monday closely. This afternoon's map shows the low coming from the northwest taking a more southerly track. Don't have a good read on any possible snowfall yet.

 

Snowing in Maysville.

I never doubt your forecast nwo. The Ashland area is already getting sleet/ice with some snow mixed in. It's too warm for it to stick to most surfaces, but I did notice the lower portion of my metal roof is trying to ice over.

Updated probability map for Monday.

 

Updated probability map for Monday.

 

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Here's hoping that those numbers are something like "percent probability of precipitation" and not "inches of snow".

Here's hoping that those numbers are something like "percent probability of precipitation" and not "inches of snow".

That is what they are percent of probability.