Per request someone asked me to throw together a list like I did for 3A of who I perceive the legit title contenders are. 4A isn't my forte but here is my best shot...

 

 

1. HIGHLANDS

What We Know:

-Highlands is, has been, and in the immediate future will be the premier program in their classification. The numbers speak for themselves as the Highlands runs of the past 15 years is simply staggering. The culture of winning ingrained into the Bluebird culture has continued into this season.

- Highlands has worked out some kinks. Early season "closer than expected wins" coupled with their surprise loss in the Finals in 2013 and retirement of Mueller left people speculating the fall of the dynasty was imminent, instead the Birds have seemingly kicked into the next gear.

- Beau Hoge has continued the Bluebird tradition of elite QB's. Already with 2000 passing yards and generating 36 TD's it is clear the best Quarterback in the class once again resides in Ft. Thomas.

 

What We Don't Know:

- How good is Highlands defense really? The true best teams they have faced have been 6A Bryan Station and 8A Christopher Columbus. Outside of those games Highlands has averaged allowing 10 points per game.. in those two games the Birds were toasted for more points than they had allowed in their other 6 games combined and gave up 39.5 points.

 

 

2. OWENSBORO

What We Know:

- The Devils have by far the most impressive resume outside of Highlands based off W's and L's and the quality of their lone loss. Three wins over teams ranked highly in their respective classes (Owensboro Cath, Madisonville, and Warren Central) look great. Throw in a narrow loss to #1 5A Bowling Green ina game Owensboro seemingly had won and the Devils look good.

- Consequently, their wins haven't been easy or of the statement variety. All three wins were 2 TD's or less and Warren Central and Madisonville were single digits win. What hurts there is both Madisonville (lost by 28 to Central Hardin) and Warren Central (lost by 25 to 2A DeSales) have had lopsides losses to other teams.

- Owensboro can score. The Devils average 41 points per game against a stout schedule.

 

What We Don't Know:

- Much like Highlands, can Owensboro defensively give their offense a chance at victory in a big game? Averaging allowing 31 points per game against their four toughest tests does not bode well.

 

 

3. JOHNSON CENTRAL

What We Know:

- Johnson Central is absolutely obliterating everything in their path. They have played 8 games, they have had 8 running clocks. Average margin of victory is 49-11 and of the 90 points allowed the majority have came once the game was out of hand.

- Johnson Central's schedule is not only horrible, it may very well be one of the weakest schedule in all of 4A! According to Calpreps JC has a SOS of -8.7... of the 38 teams in 4A this would put them behind only Atherton, Pendleton Co, and Hopkins Central thusfar for the weakest schedule. For comparison... there are 11 teams in 1A playign a tougher schedule thusfar.

- For all of their weak schedule, we should have an idea of JC entering the playoffs. They end their season by playing #10 Ashland the the #2 3A team Belfry.

 

What We Don't Know:

- How has graduation even effected JC? The Eagles lost a slew of Seniors at key positions including essentially their entire backfield and their top 2 defensive players. Thusfar there is no way to evaluate what role those departures played due to lack of challenge. Will JC succumb to unfamiliar territory when tested? Now that their replacements have a full season essentially under the belt will that impact be minimal and masked by confidence?

 

4. MADISONVILLE NORTH-HOPKINS

What We Know:

- This isn't your typical bunch of Maroons. Coach Shoulders has athletes and playmakers and they have rode them to a 6-2 record with quality wins over Paducah Tilghman, Hopkinsville, and Henderson County.

- Madisonville is "The Real Carter". Richard, Kobe, and Damion Carter that is. The Carter triumvirate have combined for big numbers: combined yardage of 2,763 yards and accounting for 26 TD's.

- Madisonville is clearly a player in the West. Though they have two losses they have came to an undefeated 6A Central Hardin and #2 Owensboro. Madisonville hung with Oboro blow for blow.

 

What We Don't Know:

- Simply put, what is the value of their two best wins? Henderson County appears to be down and 5 loss Tilghman pushed the Maroons to the very end. In addition a season opening 13-9 win over Greenwood does not trumpet their accolades. Hopkinsville is much improved but a 60-42 shootout isn't an ideal win as well.

 

5. LEXINGTON CATHOLIC

What We Know:

- Lexington Catholic's win over Boyle was a major statement and helped their cause. Entering at 3-3 with no signature wins many had counted the Knights out, but they handled Boyle with somewhat ease surprising all. In addition, District 5 has typically worked District 6 over well...to be able to stave off a rematch until the Regional Finals AND host it is a big advantage.

- Outside of that game the Knights' resume is not real pretty. Three losses and close wins against 3-6 Madison Central and 2-6 Taylor Co really stand out. Boyle is the lone quality win on their schedule and the only team they have defeated with a winning record.

- All reports are that LexCath has been a badly injured team this year. This certainly has played a role in some of their ugly wins.

 

What We Don't Know:

- Are the Lexington Public Schools being better the reason LexCath may or may not be unfairly getting a lack of respect? Their three losses came to Bowling Green, Lafayette,and Bryan Station. Typically LC has ran roughshod on the LPS teams and those losses to Bryan Station and Lafayette made people grimace. Truth is both teams seem to be drastically improved and the losses should have been expected

 

 

6. BOYLE COUNTY

What We Know:

- Boyle is probably the toughest team to evaluate. Sitting at 7-1 with a lone loss to LexCath looks like any normal season for Boyle, they have three wins over teams who have been fixtures in their class' respective Top 10 lists, and statistically Boyle looks good with a balanced offense and a quality defense. Yet upon closer inspection most feel they should have never lost to LexCath and neither of those three quality wins have really impressed. Danville is the lone team of the three to go on to beat another ranked team.

- Boyle has one of the best backs in 4A. Aidan Stewart-Hoskins has already eclipsed the 1000 yard mark and is on pace to approach 1500 yards and 25+ TD's.

 

What We Don't Know:

- How will Boyle respond to playing someone they are expected to lose against on the road? To reach the Finals it will take more than likely a road win at Knox Central, a road win at LexCath, and a road win against either Highlands or Johnson Central. Can a team who has yet to face a team they were not favored against put together three straight road wins in toss-up games?

 

 

7. KNOX CENTRAL

What We Know:

- Knox Central is not pretty. The Panthers thrive in ugly grind it out games full of physicality and limited point. They rode this to wins against North Laurel and Rockcastle, but it backfired against Bell County.

- Knox Central can play defense. Five times they have held their opponents to a TD or less and their lone loss came allowing just 15 points.

- They are clearly the best team in a historically weak district that seems to be even weaker this year. Russell County is way down, Rockcastle is mediocre, and to be frank their other district mates are awful. History suggests that winning one game in the playoffs may be the limit for their District.

 

What We Don't Know:

- How does Knox's ugly style match them up for potential matchups at home against Boyle County and LexCath? As outlined these may not be your vintage Rebels and Knights so ugly may be pretty against teams with obvious flaws.

 

9. COVINGTON CATHOLIC

What We Know:

- The Colonels are falling fast! After week two CCH had just dominated a strong 6A Dixie Heights and rival Highlands had survived a scare against the Camels of Campbell County. The buzz was that this was CC's year to make their move. Fast forward and now people wonder if CovCath even has a shot on the road in the 2nd Round.

- CovCath has struggled with the injury to their QB. When Wagner went down the level of play fell with him and so did the offensive output. It is very clear that without Wagner CovCath is simply a different team.

- Despite losing 3 of 4 games the Colonels have a chance to catch momentum. A 4 game winning streak and much needed confidence should be expected before their 2nd Round road trip to either Johnson Central or Ashland.

 

What We Don't Know:

- Has the damage been done to the psyche of the Colonels that can't be repaired? To go from such a high point to suddenly such a low point and having people questioning the staff and their ability to compete with Highlands can have a lasting effect. Will wins over bad competition right the ship or has the confidence been permanently broken?

Great analysis! :thumb:

Great analysis - I will point out that Owensboro's 3 wins against highly ranked opponents have all come on the road. @ Madisonville NH, @ Warren Central and @ Owensboro Catholic. The weather the night of the WC game prevented more scoring, as it was very windy (There was a negative punt if you can believe it). The Ocath game is a bit misleading. OHS was up 50-20 with 4 mins to go and was never in doubt the entire night as OHS rang up 500 yds of rushing. 2 late TD's by Catholic and you end up 50-34.

 

To your point that OHS didn't have blow out wins vs. these highly ranked opponents, neither did Highlands. Their big win on the road was @ Bryan Station and was a come from behind victory if I remember correctly and very close. There other big game was ChrisColumbus. They beat Paducah T, as did Madisonville.

Nice job!

Great post,

The Carter's play for Henderson, but Madisonville has a very tough football team this year led by QB TJ Phaup, RB Ryan Bowman, RB Jaron White, WR/RB Ivonta White, and one of the Best Olines in the area if not the state led by WKU commit Cullen Reynolds. Their Defense has been solid and features solid players across TE board. Paducah is a game that I believe team let off of the gas instead of finishing being up 27-0 to start the 4th and allowed a good Tilghman team to gain confidence and get back in the game.

The Carter's play for Henderson, but Madisonville has a very tough football team this year led by QB TJ Phaup, RB Ryan Bowman, RB Jaron White, WR/RB Ivonta White, and one of the Best Olines in the area if not the state led by WKU commit Cullen Reynolds. Their Defense has been solid and features solid players across the board. Paducah is a game that I believe team let off of the gas instead of finishing being up 27-0 to start the 4th and allowed a good Tilghman team to gain confidence and get back in the game.

Paradise City,

 

you can say that again

Paradise City,

 

you can say that again

 

Couldn't figure out how to delete/edit on my phone then it reposted, either way just wanted to correct the error, Good teams in 4A this year and should be competitive in the playoffs