Okay ladies and gentlemen, you got a little taste of the Hensley Rating System towards the end of the regular season and now it is time to break out the HRS predictions for the 2009 postseason.

 

The rating is simple to explain. I combine the Cantral Rating from the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Lit Rating from the Louisville Courier-Journal and divide that by two (since there is just two factors at question) to get the average. That average is the HRS.

 

Over the last couple of seasons, I have done a post-season version of the HRS with predictions of every game and have been fairly successful. Now most first round games will be easy to predict but others are not. I have been known from time to time to be exactly correct in how close a game will be while others have been way off.

 

Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting.

 

To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home team’s HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting team’s HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much.

 

If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner.

 

So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS for each class and the HRS predictions:

 

 

 

121.30 St. Xavier

112.15 Highlands

109.35 Simon Kenton

109.25 Trinity (Louisville)

106.05 Boyle County

103.20 Bell County

101.95 Male

101.65 Fort Campbell

99.65 Bowling Green

98.40 Henry Clay

97.45 Lexington Catholic

95.75 John Hardin

94.25 Lone Oak

91.75 Scott County

88.90 Johnson Central

88.85 Marion County

88.50 Lexington Christian

87.30 Henderson County

86.30 Christian County

84.50 DeSales

84.40 Greenwood

83.10 Central

83.05 Murray

81.25 Letcher County Central

81.20 Prestonsburg

81.00 Western

80.90 Newport Central Catholic

79.90 Oldham County

79.00 Mayfield

78.85 Beechwood

78.10 Allen County-Scottsville

76.95 Corbin

76.20 Green County

74.30 Pulaski County

74.10 Lawrence County

71.95 Monroe County

71.10 Somerset

70.85 Sheldon Clark

70.50 Breathitt County

68.65 Hazard

68.30 Paducah Tilghman

67.35 Bellevue

66.30 Crittenden County

64.30 Henry County

64.30 Russellville

63.65 Pike County Central

54.15 Raceland

44.60 Harlan

 

 

 

 

Class 1A

Crittenden Co. (10-2) @ Mayfield (11-1) - MHS by 29.7

Bellevue (9-3) @ Beechwood (8-4) - B'wood by 17.5

Raceland (8-4) @ Lexington Christian (11-1) - LCA by 40.35

Harlan (7-5) @ Hazard (8-4) - Hazard by 26.05

 

Class 2A

Fort Campbell (12-0) @ Murray (12-0) - FC by 12.6

Monroe Co. (9-3) @ Green Co. (9-3) - GC by 10.25

Newport Cent. Catholic (7-5) @ DeSales (9-3) - DHS by 9.9

Corbin (10-2) @ Prestonburg (12-0) - PHS by 10.25

 

Class 3A

Paducah Tilghman (6-6) @ Russellville (8-4) - RHS by 2

Henry Co. (10-2) @ Central (7-5) - CHS by 24.8

Breathitt Co. (7-5) @ Somerset (12-0) - SHS by 6.6

Sheldon Clark (7-4) @ Pike Co. Central (6-5) - SC by 1.2

 

Class 4A

Allen Co.-Scottsville (11-0) @ Lone Oak (12-0) - LO by 24.15

Marion Co. (10-2) @ Western (7-5) - MC by 1.85

Lexington Catholic (8-4) @ Boyle Co. (12-0) - BC by 14.5

Lawrence Co. (12-0) @ Bell Co. (11-1) - BC by 35.1

 

Class 5A

Bowling Green (10-2) @ Christian Co. (8-4) - BG by 7.35

Oldham Co. (8-4) @ John Hardin (12-0) - JH by 21.85

Johnson Central (8-4) @ Highlands (12-0) - HHS by 29.25

Letcher Co. Central (10-2) @ Pulaski Co. (9-3) - LCC by 0.95

 

Class 6A

Greenwood (9-3) @ Henderson Co. (9-3) - HC by 8.9

Simon Kenton (11-1) @ St. Xavier (11-1) - X by 17.95

Male (10-2) @ Trinity (8-4) - T by 13.3

Henry Clay (10-2) @ Scott Co. (9-3) - HC by 0.65

Thanks for sharing.

 

Later.

X and SK game you have at 17.95, thats about what I think the final will be 31-14 X.

ttt

I don't understand how PTilghman is higher ranked than Russellville, but, Rsv is a favorite to win?

I don't understand how PTilghman is higher ranked than Russellville, but, Rsv is a favorite to win?

 

I'm sure that is what happens when home field advantage is factored in.

I don't understand how PTilghman is higher ranked than Russellville, but, Rsv is a favorite to win?

 

I'm sure that is what happens when home field advantage is factored in.

 

 

WHO'S NEXT? You are exactly correct. The way my stuff works is that you take the two teams rating, add six automatically to the home team, and then subtract the visitor's rating from the home team's adjusted rating. If the numbers are positive, the home team should wim...if the numbers are negative, the visiting team is selected to win.